Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 10:30 am

To note: effectively a team can tender a contract at 80% of a players previous year's salary ... but would expect any player to reject that and go to arbitration which almost never lowers the salary in arbitration.

Also, if a player is non-tendered and becomes a FA he his free to sign with any of the 30 teams at whatever contract is agree upon. So, in theory, the Padres could non-tender Pham ... he can't find any takers in FA (at a good price) given his situation .... he could re-sign with the Padres at a much lower price ... maybe low base with incentives. At least with the Padres he would probably be a lock for LF and be on a contender to maximize his incentives and showcase for FA after the season.

Maybe those discussions are happening now. Preller does seem to be willing to let players test the FA market if they have an "inflated" ask position.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 1, 2020, 10:46 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2020, 9:14 am

So you’re thinking we have no shot in 2021 because Clevinger is hurt?

I don’t think that’s the case and I’m pretty sure Preller isn’t assuming that either.

We don’t have to “catch” the Dodgers either.....we need to make the playoffs and then play well.

Having Clevinger healthy would certainly be preferable...acquiring a TOR replacement would be next best case.....but with any moves AJ makes,with our offense and the young guns that could be in the rotation, I believe we still have a chance and it seems so does Vegas.

 

I'll never give up as a fan.  I wasn't quitting on team even in pretty hopeless playoff series with LAD... but

We have no shot at replacing "Clevinger" past performance with the 3-4 MM saved by his taking only 2 MM salary this year.  That was "the" big 6 for 3 trade people criticized suggesting for a year+... don't have the trade ammo to do another one.

We have next to no shot without him in rotation entire season of winning the NL West.  We would need "help" in the form of major misfortune (injury, etc) hitting LAD.  They finished 6 games ahead of us in a 60-game season, and have already "added" David Price while we've "subtracted" Clevinger + G. Richards a FA.  A full length season favors their: extremely deep SP & bench, not our: elite MLB prospects with 0 - 25 IP in actual games last year and no Minors season.  No way to ever know, but I feel the 2020 LAD were one of the best MLB teams of all time.

We have a good chance at making the playoffs, but that chance is undetermined due to format not being known yet.  If it "reverts" back to 2019 two wild cards in a 1 game playoff; given unlikelihood of catching LAD for division, how much do you invest into 2021 specifically?  Especially given that playoff expansion in CBA for 2022+ seems like a near certainty.

I'm impressed & a little surprised the Vegas odds are still as good as they are:   13 to 1 (5th best).  Was 8 to 1 (3rd best behind LAD, NYY) before Clevinger down.  I believe the smart move is to NOT "chase" the rising cost of SP's & try to hang in there till the deadline with the young SP's, good pen, good offense.  Teams will be selling at deadline (also depends on playoff format) to cut salary; that will be a better time to get a SP if we feel we have legit playoff/WS contention shot at that point.

It's extremely frustrating to see the LAD hit their peak of the last decade exactly when we hit ours!  If we were in any other division in MLB (except maybe AL East with Yankees & Rays), I'd say go all in to try to win the division.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 1, 2020, 10:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 10:30 am

To note: effectively a team can tender a contract at 80% of a players previous year's salary ... but would expect any player to reject that and go to arbitration which almost never lowers the salary in arbitration.

Also, if a player is non-tendered and becomes a FA he his free to sign with any of the 30 teams at whatever contract is agree upon. So, in theory, the Padres could non-tender Pham ... he can't find any takers in FA (at a good price) given his situation .... he could re-sign with the Padres at a much lower price ... maybe low base with incentives. At least with the Padres he would probably be a lock for LF and be on a contender to maximize his incentives and showcase for FA after the season.

Maybe those discussions are happening now. Preller does seem to be willing to let players test the FA market if they have an "inflated" ask position.

I'm pretty sure Padres HAVE to pay at least 80% of previous year salary if they Non-tender, then re-sign him?  A disadvantage to "the market" if they think he's only worth say 60% of 8 MM....

I feel like 5-6 MM base with incentives back up to 8 MM for reasonable ("120 games worth") of playing time is fair to ask given everything he's gone through in 2020.  We'll see...

Quote from Randy Manese on December 1, 2020, 11:15 am

As currently constructed and assuming (a) no further major injuries and (b) Preller will get a decent bench behind the projected 8 starters, it seems to me the Padres look more like the Chicago White Sox in 2021 than how they looked for most of 2020.  That would probably get them into the playoffs provided we believe that the offensive levels reached by the Padres in 2020 are for the most part sustainable.

Taking a look at the projected starting 8, I expect better (more consistent and higher levels) performances from Tatis Jr., Grisham, Nola and Pham.  I expect pretty much the same level of performance from Machado and Cronenworth and slightly lower (here you have to believe in the hitting coaches and a return to the 2020 batting approaches next year) stats from Myers and Hosmer.  You do need a decent and reliable bench because even with a 60 game schedule, I think we saw several players wear down or were put in games where they were mismatched or overmatched against the starting pitcher, particularly a left-handed starting pitcher.

I'm of the same mindset as Brian in that we can't go all in for 2021 at the cost of sacrificing 2022 and other upcoming seasons.  If we believe in our developing starters, then filling in the other pieces may be easier later in 2021 or leading up to 2022.  Got to see Abrams, Campusano, Marcano and a few others develop on offense as wells as a raft of high end pitchers both starters and relievers perform in the high minors in 2021 to get a better feel of what we do going forward with Myers, Pham (if not already gone) and even Hosmer, if he opts out.  The upcoming years will be more of a transition to what LA looks like now when and if our pitching develops as many are predicting.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 11:50 am

Would agree that going all in for 2021 is not the way. However, in this depressed market, if Preller can make productive adds that benefit 2021 AND 2022+ ... might get a bargain that benefits the future as teams may want to shed some payroll (more than the Padres).

So, maybe avoid any significant deals for one year control BUT consider some adds with longer control (but avoiding any players on their downward arc). That doesn't help Pham, Profar, or Yates I would guess. However, that may be the logic on pursuing the Japanese pitchers on multi-year deals.

Still would not deal any of the elite prospects ... actually most (if not all) could benefit from a full season in the minors in 2021 but as it stands if any jump up and have that breakout season in 2021 (like Anderson / Fried in ATL) the 2021 outlook could turn around quickly. Just can't "expect" that.

Target 2022 without bailing on 2021 is a fine line when they also have to consider the potential for a 2022 work stoppage as they negotiate the new CBA plus the potential of Myers (option declined) / Hosmer (opts out) to go FA after 2022 leaving more need for offense in 2023.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 1, 2020, 1:08 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 11:50 am

Would agree that going all in for 2021 is not the way. However, in this depressed market, if Preller can make productive adds that benefit 2021 AND 2022+ ... might get a bargain that benefits the future as teams may want to shed some payroll (more than the Padres).

So, maybe avoid any significant deals for one year control BUT consider some adds with longer control (but avoiding any players on their downward arc). That doesn't help Pham, Profar, or Yates I would guess. However, that may be the logic on pursuing the Japanese pitchers on multi-year deals.

Still would not deal any of the elite prospects ... actually most (if not all) could benefit from a full season in the minors in 2021 but as it stands if any jump up and have that breakout season in 2021 (like Anderson / Fried in ATL) the 2021 outlook could turn around quickly. Just can't "expect" that.

Target 2022 without bailing on 2021 is a fine line when they also have to consider the potential for a 2022 work stoppage as they negotiate the new CBA plus the potential of Myers (option declined) / Hosmer (opts out) to go FA after 2022 leaving more need for offense in 2023.

Yes.  There are always going to be some 1 year FA hole pluggers every year, and I'm OK with them even at the "scale" of say Profar or Yates.

But the single best example of what not to do would be to Non Tender Pham AND Davies (even though they are both "1 year" guys), to spend 40 MM for Trevor Bauer for 1 year trying to replace Clevinger... but now with 2 holes in SP rotation (Davies & Richards), no LF, no Bench, and no more $ to spend.   I get the feeling that's exactly what some people want; but it's grasping at straws too much:  in 2022 you lose Bauer, and Clevinger back is probably a step down from him vs being a "step up" from Davies (at about the same cost).

BUT if there were a way to stretch to get a Bauer, Springer, Realmuto... or lower tier one of the Japanese SP's on a 3+ year deal... that's a completely different story.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 1:56 pm

With two big unknowns: 1. what the other contenders (non-LAD) are doing to improve (or not); and 2. will the returning Padres perform at 2020 levels (or better) .... Padres should be in good position to contend in 2021 given they were one of best teams (win wise) in 2020. Losing Clevinger is maybe being over stated since he only pitched 4 games for the Padres.

Offense COULD be better from what started (and the bulk) of 2020, consider:

Catcher started with Hedges (71 PA ... 62 wRC+ / 2.4 dWAR) ended with Nola (74 PA with Padres ... 95 wRC+ / 2.6 dWAR). So Nola will be a full season upgrade.

2B started with Profar and was replaced by Cronenworth who hit and was a superior defensive 2B. Cronenworth should be a full season upgrade.

LF Pham started (and finished) the season (125 PA ... 78 wRC+ / -3.1 dWAR) with Profar in the middle (202 PA ... 111 wRC+ / 0.7 dWAR) .... Profar gone but a "healthy" Pham should provide the same (or better) offense.

The remaining offense returns. COULD be a better full season offense for 2021.

=====

Starting pitching at the beginning of the 2020 season:

Lamet ... returns

Davies ... returns

Paddack ... returns

Richards ... gone but provided only a 4.27 ERA (higher than the Lucchesi level in 2018-19)

No 5th SP ... just a mix and match ... that lack of quality should be easy to at least replicate and likely improve upon.

Will not be a major hurdle to have a better starting staff in 2021.

=====

The pen was a mashup in 2020 ... Yates only appeared in 6 games and Rosenthal only arrived at the deadline with 9 appearances. So (except for some concern on the closer) the pen shouldn't be much different than in 2020.

=======

Bottom line think the base of success is the repeat the performances of the retuning Padres .... add will be frosting on the cake.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 2:05 pm

Again a head scratching signing of a FA pitcher ... Mike Minor for $18MM/2 years (MLBTR had him a $6MM/1 year). SP are getting the money consistently outstripping the MLBTR estimates ... yet the dialogue still runs on the financial struggles of teams will depress the FA market. Seems a bit of a disconnect. "Worse" it was the Royals ... small market team.

This is a strange winter.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 2:13 pm

RP Trevor May signs 2 years / $15MM with the Mets. $1MM over the MLBTR estimate. So sets the level for top RP at a $7.5MM AAV ... better ones more?