Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 5:18 am

We may not know the specific dollars available but it is possible Preller looks at the amount to deploy and upgrades he has as highest priority to improve the team and challenge the LAD and sees a shortage. By now he should have a pretty good idea of who he can acquire and at what price.

Pitching may be higher on the wish list given the “interest” in the two Japanese SP on multi-year contracts (just one will consume millions) and the on-going belief that RP has to be improved (think $8MMish for one of the “proven” closers). Just pitching upgrades could consume over $10MM ... well over if they sign more than one SP and one RP. Win with pitching depth over a 162 game slate and especially in the playoffs ... so going hard for upgrades there makes some sense.

If that is the way they go, tendering Pham and just go with a weak bench is an option ... but we have seen that teams like the LAD seem to thrive by being able to go to the bench for some quality production as needed. 6 months and the playoffs is a long time to go without key contributions by the bench. Plus the DH is still unknown and some money needs to be available to fund that position.

So, another option is to non-tender Pham ($8MM) ... NOT sign Profar ($7MM) .... allowing for those dollar to be allocated for a lower cost LF and strengthen the bench to get a deeper roster. Pham did not help in 2020 and Profar had a career year that has no guarantee to repeat. Maybe sign a LF option for $4MM and 2 bench options for $2MM each?

Then IF they do sign the pitching upgrades ... that should open the door for trading pitching to get those position player upgrades potentially targeting league minimum types. We have seen Preller doing well on trades adding Grisham, Cronenworth, Pham, Profar, Nola all in the last year without using major trade assets. So?

More about the construction of the strongest 40 man roster than the best LF option at a “high” cost.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 6:37 am

Addendum on the SP for the Padres:

1. Clevinger is out

2. Lamet: will he be healthy and be able to pitch a full season ... effectively

3. Paddack: will he “rebound” or will he remain a hot / cold option

4. The array of “prospects” who have proven little and have not pitched a full season of games / innings.

that is a lot of unknown for the 4 slots behind Davies ... on a team that wants to be a contender. Makes sense that Preller is prioritizing a SP add.

=====

Note the only SP I have confidence in to deliver a quality season is Davies given his career record ... not an “ace” but a well above average pitcher based on productivity. He has a career (57 starts) in AWAY games with a 2.96 ERA ... that is more than good. His Achilles heal was Miller Park (MILW) with 61 starts and a 4.65 ERA and that obscures his value to those who only look at totals or discount pitchers because they don’t have a high velocity FB or SL and stand 6’6” / 240 lbs.

4 - 5 years of getting the opponents out works for me.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2020, 6:55 am

If Preller can find a starting LF’er and two bench options that are upgrades for the same $8 mil for Pham then by all means.My guess some of that would have to come via trade cause I don’t see 3 free agents that would be improvements for that price.

Give up some more prospect capital for a 3-4 year LF’er would be the way to go....but who and at what cost?

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 7:20 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2020, 6:55 am

If Preller can find a starting LF’er and two bench options that are upgrades for the same $8 mil for Pham then by all means.My guess some of that would have to come via trade cause I don’t see 3 free agents that would be improvements for that price.

Give up some more prospect capital for a 3-4 year LF’er would be the way to go....but who and at what cost?

 

 

Maybe not upgrade LF with the "saved" $8MM but upgrade the overall team with the mix of LF and two bench upgrades. LF may be downgraded (from Profar).

Interesting tidbit (think he is referring to the wrist):

Dennis Lin

A few questions ahead of tomorrow’s non-tender deadline: How quickly is Pham recovering from this latest surgery, his third since mid-August?

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 7:43 am

More uncertainty surround Pham:

Padres outfielder Tommy Pham underwent surgery to repair a a tear of the triangular fibrocartilage complex in his left wrist at some point in the past couple of months, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The specific timing of the procedure remains unclear. The Padres did not announce the surgery at the time it was performed.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 1, 2020, 8:22 am

We may not know the specific dollars available but it is possible certain Preller looks at the amount to deploy and upgrades he has as highest priority to improve the team and challenge the LAD and sees a shortage. By now he should have a pretty good idea of who he can acquire and at what price.

... with the Clevinger injury.

Preller, Seidler, players, fans don't want to throw in the towel on 2021, but looking at it honestly... there's not a way to recover from the loss of a SP of Clevinger's caliber for a full season who would have cost about 5-6 MM this year if healthy.  Drew Smyly costs 11 MM for 1 year.  Kevin Gausman costs 19 M for 1 year.  The 3-4 MM of "savings" on Clevinger in 2021 doesn't get you very far down that road.  The reality is Clevinger is on the very short list of players Padres must have  to realistically compete with LAD:  Tatis, Machado, Lamet & him.

In my eyes, the Clevinger injury is really what opens the door to considering NT Pham:  "Why pay 8 MM for a guy who won't be there when Clevinger returns & we have a much better chance of catching LAD... what's the point".   The answer is more subtle...  If you sign / trade for an OF you're STILL paying a guy something for a year without Clevinger.  So hypothetically could argue that it makes even LESS sense to take on even more $ going forward when 2021 is part of the total... example Michael Brantley projected at 2 / 28.  Yes, there in 2022, but is spending even MORE $ on the position in Clev-less 2021 the answer?

Padres best dark horse chance in 2021 may be having "permanent chip on my shoulder /going to prove myself"  Pham (frankly, this is when he's at his best... came through in playoffs) as part of a dominant offensive lineup.  Try to win with:  offense, some positional defense, a strong bullpen, and cobbled together SP?  Clear the $ in 2022 & Ona better positioned for a shot then.  If out of it, he's a midseason trade candidate who might bring back more then than trying to trade him now.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 1, 2020, 8:32 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 7:43 am

More uncertainty surround Pham:

Padres outfielder Tommy Pham underwent surgery to repair a a tear of the triangular fibrocartilage complex in his left wrist at some point in the past couple of months, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The specific timing of the procedure remains unclear. The Padres did not announce the surgery at the time it was performed.

 

Man, the "hits just keep coming" with Pham.... obviously Pads have known about this.  NOT a good look for AJ Preller here (i.e. Colin Rea & Pomeranz medical records when traded issue) for this news to just now be coming out.  WHHHYYY not just announce it at the time?  Every player (agent) announces every little procedure.   Possible (likely?) being disclosed in trade talks and that's how it got reported... but what's the point in NOT reporting it upfront publicly given the past history with this exact issue??

Despite all this, Pham is worth a lot more than a vet minimum.  It's an issue of how much less than 8 MM is he worth.  Can't imagine this helps his TRADE prospects; if I'm another GM even if interested, I'm starting with Pads eating 25%-50% of the salary to get a decent prospect back.  Suspect most just zero interest dealing with Preller re Pham.... some maybe Preller period.

Between Clev, Campusano, & Pham this is way too much negative drama in a short offseason...

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 9:11 am

Hard to see Pham having much trade value at $8MM in this environment given the early injury and only one year control.  Mid-low level prospect at best ... even if the Padres ate some money (which makes little sense for the Padres). A one year control player (at his cost) is only appealing to a contender that really needs him and is confident he will preform to expectations.

Preller may have tossed is name around (probably with full disclosure) to see how other teams reacted and their commentary. That alone may help Preller on the tender decision.

Padres are not in a great position to overtake the LAD but still are in a strong position to challenge for the wild card (even if only two wild card teams). So, play to contend and at the trade deadline make any additional moves as necessary. For the winter, still make moves that improve 2021 but maybe more focus on adds that carry into 2022.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2020, 9:14 am

So you’re thinking we have no shot in 2021 because Clevinger is hurt?

I don’t think that’s the case and I’m pretty sure Preller isn’t assuming that either.

We don’t have to “catch” the Dodgers either.....we need to make the playoffs and then play well.

Having Clevinger healthy would certainly be preferable...acquiring a TOR replacement would be next best case.....but with any moves AJ makes,with our offense and the young guns that could be in the rotation, I believe we still have a chance and it seems so does Vegas.