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Off Season Thread
#201 · November 30, 2020, 7:36 am
In a "normal" offseason, I feel like we would be looking at Pham's negatively eventful 2020 as having a real & very significant silver lining in that he's NOT getting an arb raise. If he had a season like Preller hoped he was getting in the Trade, he could be getting well > 10 MM in Arb, and we would scream bloody murder if there was even a whisper of a Non-Tender, even on a Covid budget.
Preller thought & hoped he was getting "Rays" Pham--that Blake Snell had a live frustration vent over losing-- for 2 years / 20 MM, and gladly pulled the trigger on the trade. Now it's only 2 / 16. It's REALLY hard for me to get out of the "normal" season mindset; that 'getting' Pham for 'only' 8 MM heading into a contract year is actually a value play. What makes it even harder for me psychologically, is that this is LITERALLY the first time since I've been a Padres fan (about 2002-03) that EVERY position in the field looks completely set heading into a season; there isn't one or more glaring everyday position holes... it's SOOO frustrating to be talking about voluntarily creating a gaping hole in LF when there is so little depth at the upper levels now (basically just Ona).
#202 · November 30, 2020, 8:01 am
Release Pham, sign Profar, and pray that there is no DH?
#203 · November 30, 2020, 8:14 am
The big thing is if the Pads are willing/able to sign a FA before Tuesday's NT deadline. NT Pham without SOMEone else signed makes me really nervous. We'll see...
#204 · November 30, 2020, 9:11 am
The short season affected many star players - Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor, Bryant, etc. - so Pham's poor stats should be tossed out the window, particularly since he was coming off injury, got COVID and then got injured again. I'm okay with a table setter Pham hitting around .270 but with a .360+ OBP, that sets up guys like Hosmer and Myers who will probably not repeat career year statistics. My concern is whether that version of Pham is worth 8M. Agree that shouldn't non-tender Pham without a committed plugged in replacement that we probably haven't heard of yet. Time will tell.
Concerning the FA pitchers that have signed so far, don't feel like we've missed out. Atlanta spent some big bucks but we don't have 26M to gamble on an aging pitcher or one who got released twice in 2019 but did look great against us in one game last year and has showed well when he didn't have to throw over 15 games a year. If we had those bucks, Bauer is the only SP I'd throw that much to. Maybe can squeeze some decent innings out of Kluber, Wainwright, Happ or Hamels for 1/2 or 1/3 of what Braves paid Morton or even trade for Lynn. A healthy Lucchesi may be better than all these options and while our rotation looks good on paper, there are health concerns as well as whether Davies can repeat and Paddack can bounce back. I wouldn't want to have to rely on the kids - Morejon, Patino, Gore or even Weathers- to get us to the playoffs as the heart of the starting rotation in 2021. I see Tanaka as a long shot but maybe one of the two Japanese pitchers that are/will be posted as an experienced possibility that hopefully won't cost too much.
#205 · November 30, 2020, 9:14 am
Think it boils down to how confident Preller is in landing a legit replacement combined his confidence in Pham regaining his Rays' form in 2021 (I do that that is a risk given age, eye issues, injury recovery). Also, Preller's confidence there will be a DH in the NL in 2021.
No question given Preller's history ... he has been spending the past month with his staff first evaluating the potential alternatives and making phone calls on availability via trade or FA demands and has a pretty good guess as to who may be able to be acquired at what price.
If he sees "multiple" options he could work with (either lower cost or high cost with higher productivity) he may just want to clear the decks and use that $8MM. Preller seems like a guy that can go a lot of different ways in replacing Pham while at the same time improving the entire roster.
I am guessing they do tender him the contract UNLESS they have a major add lined up that would eat up that $8MM and more ... not really many options in that category that fit the Padres other than Springer - Ozuna - Bauer in my mind ... so, unlikely. Bauer and Springer would be way too costly. Ozuna maybe at MLBTR number of $72MM/4 years ($18MM AAV) ... LF (bad fielder) to DH when approved.
#206 · November 30, 2020, 9:48 am
Smyly getting $11MM / 1 year (MLBTR predicted $6MM / 1 year) and Minor getting 2 years vs. 1 year (terms announced pending physical) .... is suggesting mid / bottom range SP options are in demand and the price is on the rise.
Not sure that chasing those options and paying the elevated price is a good strategy when maybe gambling on the in-house options and take that money to bolster the pen and the bench.
Going into a 162 game schedule will probably require a pen that is more uniformly used to prevent burnout of the real top RP ... so gambling on RHRP Pagan, Johnson, Stammen, Adams, Altavilla, Williams, Guerra (only 5 of them) maybe be worse than gambling on the in-house SP. Also, other than Pagan, all are out of options and some will be DFA, so have to be "right" out of ST.
162 games / 6 months and no DH requiring PHs for the pitcher ... exposes a current bench (excluding catcher) of Garcia (non-tender target), Mateo (can't hit), Allen (couldn't hold a 4th OF slot in Cleveland on the worst offensive OF in MLB), and ? ... Ona (part year in AA highest level). Don't know who, but that solid starting 8 will not all be healthy (just a hamstring or oblique can keep someone out for a month+) and have zero confidence in the current subs and no one in the minors near ML ready.
Padres right know are like a Hollywood back set .... an impressive facade being held up by flimsy two by fours, basically nothing behind it.
Can't upgrade everywhere ... no team can. So for me priority should be a legit RH closer (maybe a second proven RP), two bench options (one INF one OF) to replace Ona and Garcia with at least one capable of being in the line-up if a DH is approved but both able to provide PH value.
That is 3 or 4 adds and if they go for "quality" that will be pushing the $10-15MM rumored additional spending (assumes they tender Pham for LF).
#207 · November 30, 2020, 1:36 pm
It sure seems like the perfect add is Profar.
We need a versatile productive player....he just makes the most sense.
Our current bench is weak....
With the DH Profar would play everyday....none of the other bench options will.
Even without the DH Profar would play a lot....certainly way more than Mateo,Garcia,and/ or Allen.
I get that we have to pay him....but I have to believe we will start the season with Pham,Profar or both.....hard to believe it would be neither.
#208 · November 30, 2020, 5:46 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on November 30, 2020, 1:36 pmIt sure seems like the perfect add is Profar.
We need a versatile productive player....he just makes the most sense.
Our current bench is weak....
With the DH Profar would play everyday....none of the other bench options will.
Even without the DH Profar would play a lot....certainly way more than Mateo,Garcia,and/ or Allen.
I get that we have to pay him....but I have to believe we will start the season with Pham,Profar or both.....hard to believe it would be neither.
With repspect Mr. P. the more I think about Profar, the more I think Profar is NOT a good resign, unless its for $2-4M per season. We are getting way too excited about 6-8 weeks of a very strange season. If you take out 2020, he is barely a .240 hitter that is suspect at 2B, way under bat for LF, and probably dont want to trust at SS, for more than a day or two max.
I agree, that the bench needs to be upgraded, I just dont think that Profar is any where near worth $7M a year. For $7M, dont you think we could get both Pilar and Galvis?
#209 · November 30, 2020, 6:00 pm
Right-handers Tomoyuki Sugano and Kohei Arihara “are on the Padres’ radar,” The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes (subscription required). The two Nippon Professional Baseball veterans will both be available on the posting market, and represent intriguing alternatives to more established Major Leaguer hurlers in free agency.
Sugano and Arihara are quite likely to each land multi-year deals but perhaps not overly long commitments, which could appeal to a Padres team Lin says is “mulling one-year deals as a way to reinforce a rotation.”
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No idea on the money ... but an interesting alternative to spending on some broken down / over the hill SP out of FA. Both are RHSP with good records.
IF they sign one (or both) ... opens some interesting speculation the future of the prospects and/or Davies.
#210 · November 30, 2020, 7:24 pm
I have never understood why everybody is so over the moon with Pham.....he is always hurt, is a below average left fielder with no arm and last year was a zero in the batting order....I would prefer to have Profar back and let Pham hit the bricks or trade him in a package deal with Mejia , who has no position, and work on getting Campusano and Ona some serious playing time. If Pham is so red hot and such a valued commodity then why did St Louis trade him ?.....why did the Rays trade him ?
If the Padres do tender Pham at whatever excessive amount is expected my gut tells me he plays less than 80 games in a full 162 game schedule and that includes any spring training.
Ona could surprise people and I think his time is now...the other guys that could get pushed out of shear necessity would be Hudson Head and Tirso Ornelas