Quote from hoffy51 on November 29, 2020, 11:32 am

I think AJ is hiding in the weeds ready to pounce. That being said, I would really like to sign Profar.

Quote from Randy Manese on November 29, 2020, 11:40 am

Yadier Molina last played in San Diego and had an excellent series against the Padres both offensively and defensively which is certain to have a halo effect on where he might consider to sign.  Plus he has tremendous respect from many players on the San Diego team, especially fellow Latinos, both for his control of the pitching game and his leadership.  However, he played in roughly two-thirds of the Cardinals games in 2020 and had an OBP of barely over .300, which is what it has been over the past 3 or so years.  Given he's likely to command something more than 5M, maybe closer to 7M for two years, and is likely to play at least 1/2 of the games it raises the questions of not only can the Padres afford that salary but also the time taken away from the further  development of Nola, Mejia and Campusano.

My proposal for a better low cost option is Kurt Suzuki, who has caught some of the best pitchers in the league over the last few years and still is capable of an OBP of around .330 and BA around .265.  Probably can get Suzuki for around 2M and may not have to give a 2 year contract - just a club option for a 2nd year.  To me, Suzuki would fit the back-up catcher mold better and allow more money to be spent elsewhere; it would also free Nola and Mejia to be used elsewhere against LH pitching or to sub-out infielders (Nola) and/or corner outfielders (Mejia).  Campusano probably not ready for a major role until at least 2022, so a third experienced catcher on the roster, to me, is a necessity.  I just don't think it's going to be Molina, despite how desirable it might seem.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on November 29, 2020, 11:50 am

Concerning Pham, I'm getting a feeling that he won't be the starting LF when the season starts.  I don't know if they'll non-tender him since they don't want a gaping hole in LF without any reliable player behind him at the moment.  Got a couple of days for Preller to do his magic; we will see if they carry him possibly up to spring training or move him before then.  When that incident happened in the Midway district, I think the writing was on the wall.  Padres won most of their games without Pham but they have to have someone in mind to be on the roster to replace him before they can sever ties without damaging a potentially very good starting 8.  Could be Pillar, Renfroe or even Profar - should be a number of OF's within the Padres' budget given Mejia could also be platooned in LF.

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2020, 12:28 pm

One of the discussions surrounding the non-tender or tender and maybe trade later is the judgement that a player on the bubble of non-tender (dollars / performance) has current or future trade value. This covers not only Pham but everyone really.

Again a risk assessment. If, for example, there are no current trade opportunities for an $8MM Pham will any team see that differently in ST? Might sign him as a FA at a lower price but not $8MM and give up anything. If the Padres do tender him they are on the hook for $2MM if they release him before the season and the full boat if he starts with them. In 2021 that is pretty big coin that could be used elsewhere.

Tuesday should be interesting all around the league.

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2020, 12:41 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 29, 2020, 9:08 am

I prefer Nola and Pham myself.

If we could bring Molina in for 1-2 “reasonably priced” seasons I’d be OK with it.

But I don’t see how St Louis let’s him go elsewhere to be honest.

What are the chances we bring Trevor Williams in to compete for the #5 spot?

I’m guessing who, and how many starters we sign all depends on AJ’s feelings about the youngsters contributing in 2021....also on what’s really going on with Lamets’ arm.

 

We still have Lamet/Davies/Paddack/Lucchesi/Morejon/Patiño/Gore/Weathers.

How many of those are in the opening day rotation?

 

If he would sign a minor league contract with ST invite and agree on the ML portion if he makes the club (also giving him an opt out if he does not) .... yes.

Doubt they would cut someone now to make 40 man roster room ... may need those winter moves for more high profile FA signings. However, coming out of ST there should be open slots for the out of option players getting DFA or Clevinger to the 45 day IL if needed.

Would another team be in the position to offer him a ML deal now? That likely would get him.

Quote from hoffy51 on November 29, 2020, 12:48 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on November 29, 2020, 11:40 am

Yadier Molina last played in San Diego and had an excellent series against the Padres both offensively and defensively which is certain to have a halo effect on where he might consider to sign.  Plus he has tremendous respect from many players on the San Diego team, especially fellow Latinos, both for his control of the pitching game and his leadership.  However, he played in roughly two-thirds of the Cardinals games in 2020 and had an OBP of barely over .300, which is what it has been over the past 3 or so years.  Given he's likely to command something more than 5M, maybe closer to 7M for two years, and is likely to play at least 1/2 of the games it raises the questions of not only can the Padres afford that salary but also the time taken away from the further  development of Nola, Mejia and Campusano.

My proposal for a better low cost option is Kurt Suzuki, who has caught some of the best pitchers in the league over the last few years and still is capable of an OBP of around .330 and BA around .265.  Probably can get Suzuki for around 2M and may not have to give a 2 year contract - just a club option for a 2nd year.  To me, Suzuki would fit the back-up catcher mold better and allow more money to be spent elsewhere; it would also free Nola and Mejia to be used elsewhere against LH pitching or to sub-out infielders (Nola) and/or corner outfielders (Mejia).  Campusano probably not ready for a major role until at least 2022, so a third experienced catcher on the roster, to me, is a necessity.  I just don't think it's going to be Molina, despite how desirable it might seem.

 

IMHO we have sooooooooo many more holes to fill than catcher. We paid a high price for Nola and we have Campusano coming up soon. We need staring pitching, a left fielder who can stay out of trouble, and possibly a DH. I think our catching is just fine.

Quote from hoffy51 on November 30, 2020, 2:29 am

Then again, if the Padres steer away from sign for, or trading for a starting pitcher, it can only mean that they intend to let Patino, Morejon, Gore?, Weathers? get their chance this season.

Quote from fenn68 on November 30, 2020, 7:08 am

Bauer aside, the rest of the FA SP ... are not ones to rely on as significant adds based on their past two seasons ... and some come with injury histories and given the recent SP signings, probably over priced.

Have to think Padres 1-3 are Lamet, Davies, Paddack ... so looking at two open slots. As I suggested before ... have to use Lucchesi as the benchmark. He is still young, he is healthy, has pitched significant innings in 2018 and 2019,  his ERA (around 4.10) and WHIP (around 1.25), is controlled for 4 years and (very important) at league minimum cost in 2021 freeing up payroll for other needs.

At the same time have to start moving in the high ceiling prospects ... maybe just for the 5th opening (maybe the 4th and 5th if they surpass Lucchesi) .... at least one (or a combo of prospects) should be able to deliver as well as the FA options if not better if their projections are even close to being valid. Gore, Patino, Morejon, Weathers, Baez .... should yield one or two ML ready in 2021. Again they are paid minimum leaving money for other needs and will be around for 6 years.

Might see some fringe / rebound veteran options signed on make good minor league deals as “insurance”.

I would stick with the in-house options over the over-priced, marginally effective, short control, unreliable, aging FA ... and expect better a better result.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 30, 2020, 7:12 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 29, 2020, 12:28 pm

One of the discussions surrounding the non-tender or tender and maybe trade later is the judgement that a player on the bubble of non-tender (dollars / performance) has current or future trade value. This covers not only Pham but everyone really.

Again a risk assessment. If, for example, there are no current trade opportunities for an $8MM Pham will any team see that differently in ST? Might sign him as a FA at a lower price but not $8MM and give up anything. If the Padres do tender him they are on the hook for $2MM if they release him before the season and the full boat if he starts with them. In 2021 that is pretty big coin that could be used elsewhere.

Tuesday should be interesting all around the league.

... and every team knows that.   In other words, if you DO tender him, it's like saying you know that you have to eat 2 MM in any trade, just to get a prospect back (and save 6 MM) which really doesn't make sense for the 2021 Padres; even a good prospect taking 2 MM off available to spend maybe 20? MM on MLB payroll isn't worth it.