Quote from MrPadre19 on February 24, 2021, 10:21 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 24, 2021, 8:57 am

Funny how all these rumors from supposed burner accounts come out right after a reputable reporter talks about something. Dennis Lin talked about Hader on the Darren Smith show yesterday and suddenly this guy is tweeting again. Why anyone chooses to believe these accounts that are so obviously fake is beyond me. All the reputable reports say that the Padres have talked to the Brewers, but the asking price is too high and nothing is close.

I'll trust those reports over random twitter rumors and IG posts from players supposed girlfriends.

Trust?

No one is trusting it but again,it wasn’t specific about Hader either and the last “four” times he said something cryptic within 48 hours a move was made.

Just passing it along to those not on Twitter really.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 24, 2021, 11:26 am

From MLBTR:     There’s additional value for Hader’s role in the postseason, however, evidenced by his dominant run of 10 scoreless innings in the 2018 playoffs that played a major role in getting the Brewers to the NLCS. For an NL contender looking to balance the scales against the juggernaut Dodgers, a weapon like Hader could present a solution.

There is logic to a trade despite how deep/overloaded the Pads pen is.  Hader is controllable 3 more years but expensive for a mid-market team like Brewers who now have Devin Williams.  The 3 year control perfectly fits the Pads roster structured for a 3 year run.

Pads are overloaded already in Bullpen; HAVE to make some trades before O.D.  But also @SP... next year with Clevinger's return.  In 2021 with:  Clevenger out,  Lamet's health ?, Paddack's down year, the missed minors season limiting IP everywhere AND the effect on development of the young top prospects, Pads ALREADY feel slightly "light" in MLB experienced SP depth.   BUT in 2022, assuming health & development, Pads look to be 9-10 deep in MLB experienced (by then) and READY for MLB SP.  If we wait to trade from that depth until then, we lose 1 of the 3 years of our "window" that's open now to contend for WS.  Flip side is shakier depth in 2021.

Solution:  Pull the trigger for Hader.  Create an uber bullpen for 3 years to separate from LAD.  "Backfill" the loss of SP with a veteran like Rick Porcello or the obvious Cole Hamels; opening a more defined spot & role for the vet: to ideally pitch the first half of the season to buy time/development for Gore & others.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 24, 2021, 12:19 pm

There are a # of pretty good matches to be had in a trade for Hader.  Here's 3:

No brainer:  Michel Baez & Jose Castillo & Javy Guerra for:  Hader & C Luke Maile or Jacob Nottingham.

A lot of cheap bullpen upside that fits better in Milwaukee than this Padres team.  Brewers have 5 C's on 40-man.  Maile has an option left, Nottingham doesn't.  Insurance for Campusano's legal situation. Brewers also have a full 40-man, but Pads don't need their worst DFA guy unless he's a position player with option/s.

Ouch but yeah:  Morejon, Stammen, & Castillo for:  Same as above

Morejon feels stuck in a limbo of being too good for minors, but too far down depth chart to be a top 5 SP on Pads.  Will exacerbate next year with Clev back & a full year for Gore & others.  If get Morejon, force to take Stammen to offset $ 1st year.  Castillo "only" has 4 years control vs Hader's 3.  Logical to go in trade.

Compromise:  Paddack, Stammen, & Castillo for:  Same as above.

Risky, b/c CP could be > Morejon who's never proven he can approach let alone go way beyond 100 IP.  But maybe the best fit for the Pads:  Paddack "squeezed" by those in front of him in MLB & behind him in Minors, and both he & Castillo will hit arb next year.  This trade would offset significant $ being spent on Hader annually for Pads, but save significant $ for Brewers annually spread across more players.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 24, 2021, 12:32 pm

The Braves have claimed outfielder Guillermo Heredia off waivers from the Mets, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). New York had designated the 30-year-old for assignment over the weekend. By claiming Heredia, the Braves will become responsible for the entirety of the $1MM salary that he’d previously agreed upon in order to avoid an arbitration hearing with the Mets.

Heredia, however, is capable of playing all three outfield positions, has a minor league option remaining and does have a respectable line against left-handed pitching: .274/.337/.397. His right-handed bat will give the Braves some depth and a possible bench bat...

Wow.  Wonder if Pads put in a claim on this guy at #27, beaten out by Braves at #24.... might have offered the Mets something for him to win out... a < top 30 system prospect or out of options RP anyone?

Not going to get much better than this for 1 MM:  MLB experienced, CF primary position, RH, optionable, decent splits vs LHP.

Quote from fenn68 on February 24, 2021, 1:04 pm

I am still wearing my MILW cap and look at the team as a contender in the NL Central ... spent money to sign Wong .... expect a major rebound by Yelich ... Cain returns from sitting out 2020 ... have a 2020 revelation in the pen with Williams (but very small sample size) and little depth.

Have Hader ... top RP for the past 3 years ... 3 years control ... reasonable salary at $6.675MM to solidify the pen with Williams.

Had been linked to trying to sign Turner before LAD did ... are still linked to having "interest" in Bradley ... both large dollar adds suggesting money is not limited.

So why would I trade Hader UNLESS the return has immediate ML improvement for MILW roster? Then IF I put Hader on the market .... could I get a better offer from some other team? Then IF I had him available and did not see a mega return (which is what I believe is their threshold) ... just hold and try to win ... if not, open the window at the deadline.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 24, 2021, 1:13 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 24, 2021, 12:32 pm

The Braves have claimed outfielder Guillermo Heredia off waivers from the Mets, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). New York had designated the 30-year-old for assignment over the weekend. By claiming Heredia, the Braves will become responsible for the entirety of the $1MM salary that he’d previously agreed upon in order to avoid an arbitration hearing with the Mets.

Heredia, however, is capable of playing all three outfield positions, has a minor league option remaining and does have a respectable line against left-handed pitching: .274/.337/.397. His right-handed bat will give the Braves some depth and a possible bench bat...

Wow.  Wonder if Pads put in a claim on this guy at #27, beaten out by Braves at #24.... might have offered the Mets something for him to win out... a < top 30 system prospect or out of options RP anyone?

Not going to get much better than this for 1 MM:  MLB experienced, CF primary position, RH, optionable, decent splits vs LHP.

I am surprised that the Padres were not in on him and make a claim and offer a non-roster non-high ceiling prospect. (note: he was on waiver because the Mets' roster is full). Padres would have to DFA someone to make room (Lawson to 60 day also an option). Maybe they just though he would clear waivers and try to sign him on a minor league deal ... or could be just as simple as the Padres scouts were not impressed.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 24, 2021, 2:44 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 24, 2021, 10:21 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 24, 2021, 8:57 am

Funny how all these rumors from supposed burner accounts come out right after a reputable reporter talks about something. Dennis Lin talked about Hader on the Darren Smith show yesterday and suddenly this guy is tweeting again. Why anyone chooses to believe these accounts that are so obviously fake is beyond me. All the reputable reports say that the Padres have talked to the Brewers, but the asking price is too high and nothing is close.

I'll trust those reports over random twitter rumors and IG posts from players supposed girlfriends.

Trust?

No one is trusting it but again,it wasn’t specific about Hader either and the last “four” times he said something cryptic within 48 hours a move was made.

Just passing it along to those not on Twitter really.

 

I spent way too much time looking into the tweets this guy put out that supposedly leaked all of these moves after they started getting reposted on Padres Reddit. They always come shortly after a reputable source reports on a potential move. It happens every off-season. Some random twitter account supposedly predicts moves and fans become convinced it's an insider's burner. When you actually look into them it's not hard to see that they aren't. This Jud guy is at least basing his supposed predictions off of credible sources so maybe they're more valid than most of these accounts, but the way people are talking about him being Paddack or an insider leaking news is ridiculous.

Quote from Ben Davey on February 24, 2021, 10:01 pm

The way it makes sense is how much value someone sees in Morejon.  As a 21 year old starter who last year averaged 11.6 K/9 with only 4 BB (19.1 IP) you can easily make the argument that he has the stuff to be an above average mid rotation pitcher.  We have seen him be absolutely FILTHY.  His issues are more the mental side as he has on multiple occasions not disclosed an injury to Padres' staff causing it to get worse.

Its not hard to make the argument that Morejon can turn into at least a 2-3 WAR pitcher.  That would be a worst case scenario comparable to Zach Davies (solid mid rotation pitcher).  In Josh Hader's two best seasons (18' and 19') he had WARs of 2.1 and 2.7.  Not to mention he will easily make 20+ mil over the next three seasons.  Point being that starters are worth WAY more than relievers.

So if you are the Brewers, does getting someone like Morejon to replace your #5 (Houser?who went 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA last year), and whatever other pieces you get (Castillo?/Guerra?) make up for losing your reliever, you make the trade in a heart beat.

If I am the Padres I dont do it.  I like Hader but his contract + the players we would have to give up IMO outweighs what we would gain.  Plus, if the Padres have a 6 man rotation and/or Lamet or anyone goes down, Morejon will be asked to step up.

Quote from fenn68 on February 25, 2021, 6:36 am

If I were the Padres I would not trade Morejon for Hader. If I were the Brewers I would not trade Hader for Morejon.

In 2021 BOTH teams are legit playoff contenders but with very different roster and competition profiles ... so the roster mix needs to support their highest needs.

Hader is a PROVEN elite RP (although some may be wary of his gradual decline based on how MILW has used him).

Morejon is all about POTENTIAL as a SP (and that POTENTIAL view should make him more valuable than Hader in the long run .... or not).Still an open question even if he is effective in 2021 as a SP ... how may innings can he pitch.

I would think, for 2021, Hader has way more value to the Brewers as an elite paring with Williams (still has to be proven Williams' 2020 can be sustained). Need to finish games to win (exactly the same logic the Padres are using with bulking up the pen). Giving up that pen strength for the POTENTIAL that may not be able to pitch a full slate of innings or even achieve that POTENTIAL in 2021 doesn't really fit the Brewers' profile .... need a bottom of the rotation arm ... sign Odorizzi, Porcello, or Hamels. If the Brewers trade Hader ... they are writing off playoff contention.

Although the Padres would like Hader, they are sitting in a much better position for making the playoffs with an already strong pen. They can play the long game with Morejon to nurture the long term value potential. Even in 2021 as the #6 SP / long relief / coverage for injury his innings limitations should not be an issue.

Both teams seem to be positioned in a way to wait until the trade deadline ... see where they stand ... to make the next major trade move.