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#1201 · February 16, 2021, 9:20 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on February 16, 2021, 9:11 amQuote from Ben Davey on February 15, 2021, 10:13 pmIf Jacob Nix is pitching meaningful innings for the Padres this year, then something went seriously wrong. Considering he isnt on the 40 man he would have to behind Morejon, Baez, Lawson, Weathers, and probably a few others including Gore.
Puff pieces in the local newspaper are great for hyping up players. I am not sure what Acee will do this year if he cant write 20 articles about how Hedges changed his swing this year and will dominate
WHOA!! If Nix (for 40 pitches) against non-pro players is showing the stuff reported, and Padres brass is seeing it by video & in person... why would Acee or any reporter exaggerate it? I know what you mean on the "I'm going to change my approach this year" puff articles, but this doesn't seem like one of those... Harsh words.
BUT I found this article VERY interesting reading between the lines... obviously b/c Jake has matured mentally & his stuff seems to be way better... but think him wanting to tell his side AND stubbornly saying "I'm a SP" when he's objectively 10th on the depth chart does have an ulterior motive. Is he basically saying to the Padres "thanks for sticking with me, but I wouldn't mind getting traded to a team (28 others) with less SP depth"??? Is he deliberately with Acee's (... or even Preller/Pads by tipping Acee) help marketing himself to other teams by putting himself on their "trade-ar"??
I also kind of take issue with the SP insistence from a guy who by his own admission let himself get fat & lazy, and would have been released by many teams due to the bad PR late night talk show punchline black eye to the org. Given his own lack of discipline physically (think that extra weight helped your injuries?) and the bad PR, should be grateful/humble for ANY path back to MLB. I GET the "look how competitive I am" thing, but it rings hollow & reminds me of some of Paddack's self-diagnosis last year; selfish & lacking in situational/self awareness.
I see it hopefully the way Jacob intended. I screwed up and got complacent and lazy, and lost my opportunity on a rebuilding team. He sees the moves that SD has made, and the position they are now in ML hierarchy, and realizes there are about 9-10 guys that he needs to beat out.
I like the personal chip on the shoulder, saying Ive got a chance to go to Spring and perform. I dont mind that he wants to start, however he also mentions that he is willing to go bullpen to make the ML team.
I have no problem if he comes in and shoves down Paddack throat and says, I have 4 pitches, pitched better than Paddack, and takes Paddacks spot in the rotation.
This is put up or shut up time, best 26 men break camp. Prove it on the field!!
#1202 · February 16, 2021, 9:52 am
With a 26 man roster, there are certain players that have a lock on spots no matter their performance during ST. Veterans getting ready for the season, for example Machado could go 0 for ST and be a lock for 3B. Where as Mateo goes 0 for ST, and gets DFA'd.
Locks:
Machado, Tatis, Hosmer, Nola, Caratini, Pham, Grisham, Myers, Profar, Darvish, Snell, Lamet (health?), Musgrove, Pomeranz, Pagan, Melancon, and maybe Stammen and Kela. Thats 17 or 18 of 26, leaving 8-9 spots for performance battles in ST.
Performance battles:
Cronenworth and Kim. Is Cro more of a lock, or does Kim need time in MiL to catch up to ML velocity?
Mateo and O'Grady, does Mateo win simply because he is out of options, or does O'Grady kill it in the Spring?
SP would be IMO, Paddack, Nix, and maybe a great performance from Weathers or Morejon? Or does Weathers and Morejon, start in MiL to working on a regular basis in MiLs?
Then the big battle, the bull pen. P. Johnson, Altavilla, Adams, Guerra, Stammen, Hill, Castillo, and the others. Of course, its going to come down to performance and options.
Should be an interesting ST, where you have to pretty much earn your spot, not just be an enticing player thats needs seasoning and SD wasnt able to challenge for the playoffs and WS. One that we have not seen in SD for a long time!
#1203 · February 16, 2021, 11:06 am
I put the odds of Nix making the Padres at zero in 2021 (probably ever). Nothing he can do in ST will earn him a 26 man roster slot and bump his rostered completion. The guy has not pitched much at at all: 0 (2020) ... 24 innings (2019) ... 59 innings (2018). If he is going to earn a return ... need to earn it over an extended run of success in the minors in 2021.
As for the article by Acee ... that is the formula of writers covering the club ... need articles that cover the full ST so start with those least likely to be a factor for the team late is ST. Just filler stuff. Probably will be seeing bits on some of the more obscure non-roster invitees in the next week or two ... maybe some human interest puff.
#1204 · February 16, 2021, 11:16 am
The only roster battles I see is the last RP slot(s) vs. Mateo/O’Grady. Would bet that all the rest are just locked in by the Padres .... only a real bad ST may knock one out (but not likely) but they will not be bumped by someone with a good ST.
Now sometime around May ... if the anointed 26 are not performing and the others are shining in AAA (or extended ST) ... then we might see a switch just not likely based on ST performance.
#1205 · February 16, 2021, 11:55 am
Quote from fenn68 on February 16, 2021, 11:16 amThe only roster battles I see is the last RP slot(s) vs. Mateo/O’Grady. Would bet that all the rest are just locked in by the Padres .... only a real bad ST may knock one out (but not likely) but they will not be bumped by someone with a good ST.
Now sometime around May ... if the anointed 26 are not performing and the others are shining in AAA (or extended ST) ... then we might see a switch just not likely based on ST performance.
My main point was really, this is the first time in a long time that I can remember there is going to be no Padre charity going on with players. And by that I mean, hey your a good story, and a cool guy, why dont you play for our AAAA team that wears a ML uniform.
And the few spots left, between last bench spot and 3-4 bull pen spots, will for the most part, be earned via performance. And high level performance at that!
We could actually have a horrible ST record this year (wins and losses) and nobody will care that much.
When was the last time we saw SD ranked #2 in CBS Sports power rankings?
#1206 · February 16, 2021, 12:33 pm
I guess a few players we need to watch for confirmation of what we saw in an abbreviated 2020:
1. Paddack (of course) since he had some real problems (and bad stats) in 2020 but that was a mixture of very bad and very good performance. Did he work on his 2020 issues in the off season? Is he effective vs. poor teams and ineffective vs. good teams? If yes, is that fine for the #5 SP?
2. Cronenworth ... most are not looking at him as a potential problem but he had one great month (Aug) and a not so impressive month (Sep) plus his AB vs LHP were weak. Will he survive as the starter or will Kim take over the regular 2B role (if he is as advertised)?
3. Grisham won the gold glove and hit well ... yet few saw him before 2020 as a plus CF ... what is real?
#1207 · February 16, 2021, 12:58 pm
Quote from fenn68 on February 16, 2021, 12:33 pmI guess a few players we need to watch for confirmation of what we saw in an abbreviated 2020:
1. Paddack (of course) since he had some real problems (and bad stats) in 2020 but that was a mixture of very bad and very good performance. Did he work on his 2020 issues in the off season? Is he effective vs. poor teams and ineffective vs. good teams? If yes, is that fine for the #5 SP?
2. Cronenworth ... most are not looking at him as a potential problem but he had one great month (Aug) and a not so impressive month (Sep) plus his AB vs LHP were weak. Will he survive as the starter or will Kim take over the regular 2B role (if he is as advertised)?
3. Grisham won the gold glove and hit well ... yet few saw him before 2020 as a plus CF ... what is real?
These are the questions that will be exciting to see during ST. And the questions that I kind of had in mind. Who is Paddack? Is he a 5 spot guy, a bull pen guy, or needs to be replaced with someone more effective? What is Cro, Aug or Sept? Can Kim hit ML fastball velocity? Is Grisham really a CFer? Or does he bulk up a little, and become an excellent LFer when Pham is done after the season? Then, how does SD handle CF in 2022?
However, its nice to have these questions, versus, will declining vet player on a swan song be good enough to eek SD into the playoffs?
#1208 · February 16, 2021, 1:30 pm
Think the Kim signing was really smart since Cronenworth has played 2 months of MLB. 1 Great, 1 Poor offensively, but good in playoffs. It's simply not enough to hang your hat on for a WS contending club over a full season.
But the same is really true of Grisham who has only played about 3 months total of MLB, and has also struggled vs LHP. The fact he was good enough defensively to win a Gold Glove IS a lot of consolation/faith, but he hasn't proved it over a full season either.
Weird how when the stakes are higher, what would have been about 7th on the list of a normal Padres team's roster issues seems so magnified in importance.
#1209 · February 16, 2021, 1:43 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on February 16, 2021, 12:58 pmQuote from fenn68 on February 16, 2021, 12:33 pmI guess a few players we need to watch for confirmation of what we saw in an abbreviated 2020:
1. Paddack (of course) since he had some real problems (and bad stats) in 2020 but that was a mixture of very bad and very good performance. Did he work on his 2020 issues in the off season? Is he effective vs. poor teams and ineffective vs. good teams? If yes, is that fine for the #5 SP?
2. Cronenworth ... most are not looking at him as a potential problem but he had one great month (Aug) and a not so impressive month (Sep) plus his AB vs LHP were weak. Will he survive as the starter or will Kim take over the regular 2B role (if he is as advertised)?
3. Grisham won the gold glove and hit well ... yet few saw him before 2020 as a plus CF ... what is real?
These are the questions that will be exciting to see during ST. And the questions that I kind of had in mind. Who is Paddack? Is he a 5 spot guy, a bull pen guy, or needs to be replaced with someone more effective? What is Cro, Aug or Sept? Can Kim hit ML fastball velocity? Is Grisham really a CFer? Or does he bulk up a little, and become an excellent LFer when Pham is done after the season? Then, how does SD handle CF in 2022?
However, its nice to have these questions, versus, will declining vet player on a swan song be good enough to eek SD into the playoffs?
ie:Paddack
You didn't suggest the possibility he's much more than a #5 starter?
We thought he was going to be our Ace after 2019....he's too young(and determined) to rule anything out at this point.
It's still quite possible in 2022 we have SEVEN bona fide top of the rotation starters....could you imagine?
Musgrove would have to be 2020 Musgrove just as Paddack would have to be 2019 Paddack but....
Darvish/Snell/Lamet/Clevinger/Musgrove/Paddack/Gore.
Talk about a "good problem"!
#1210 · February 16, 2021, 1:49 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 16, 2021, 1:43 pmQuote from BoosterSD on February 16, 2021, 12:58 pmQuote from fenn68 on February 16, 2021, 12:33 pmI guess a few players we need to watch for confirmation of what we saw in an abbreviated 2020:
1. Paddack (of course) since he had some real problems (and bad stats) in 2020 but that was a mixture of very bad and very good performance. Did he work on his 2020 issues in the off season? Is he effective vs. poor teams and ineffective vs. good teams? If yes, is that fine for the #5 SP?
2. Cronenworth ... most are not looking at him as a potential problem but he had one great month (Aug) and a not so impressive month (Sep) plus his AB vs LHP were weak. Will he survive as the starter or will Kim take over the regular 2B role (if he is as advertised)?
3. Grisham won the gold glove and hit well ... yet few saw him before 2020 as a plus CF ... what is real?
These are the questions that will be exciting to see during ST. And the questions that I kind of had in mind. Who is Paddack? Is he a 5 spot guy, a bull pen guy, or needs to be replaced with someone more effective? What is Cro, Aug or Sept? Can Kim hit ML fastball velocity? Is Grisham really a CFer? Or does he bulk up a little, and become an excellent LFer when Pham is done after the season? Then, how does SD handle CF in 2022?
However, its nice to have these questions, versus, will declining vet player on a swan song be good enough to eek SD into the playoffs?
ie:Paddack
You didn't suggest the possibility he's much more than a #5 starter?
We thought he was going to be our Ace after 2019....he's too young(and determined) to rule anything out at this point.
It's still quite possible in 2022 we have SEVEN bona fide top of the rotation starters....could you imagine?
Musgrove would have to be 2020 Musgrove just as Paddack would have to be 2019 Paddack but....
Darvish/Snell/Lamet/Clevinger/Musgrove/Paddack/Gore.
Talk about a "good problem"!
At the rate he got shelled last season, and with his stubbornness (determined as you put), to not (at this time) develop a 3rd pitch. Yes, he could be nothing more than a #5 on a good/great team.
Now, if he can pull his head out, stop listening to his non-professional baseball coach brother, develop a curve, cutter, or a slider. Then sky is the limit for him. His destiny is up in the air by this time next season, IMO. Proof is in the pudding, as they say. Is he the Sheriff or a deputy?