Quote from JasonE135 on February 16, 2021, 2:20 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on February 15, 2021, 7:36 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on February 15, 2021, 7:05 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on February 15, 2021, 6:03 pm

It might be a long shot, could Jacob Nix be in the mix for the 6th man/long relief duty. Really nice article today in the UT about him. He is sounding confidently humble about his revised mechanics and physical regimen that has increased his fastball into the upper 90s, and increased the performance of his breaking stuf.

Unfortunately, he still has a partially torn UCL.

Quote from UT,

During a 40-pitch session last week, with batters from Hope International University mostly walking away shaking their heads after trying to hit against him, Nix’s fastball sat between 95 and 97 mph, a good 2-4 mph faster than his average in ’18.

He has an invite to ST, so I think it sounds like he is good to go.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/padres-jacob-nix-torn-ucl-elbow-ligament.html&ved=2ahUKEwiJ1ovAt-_uAhUPHs0KHTgxDcAQFjAAegQIBRAC&usg=AOvVaw1eqVZTvQpmcbed8kUW9MdE.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/04/jacob-nix-will-attempt-to-rehab-ucl-injury.html&ved=2ahUKEwiJ1ovAt-_uAhUPHs0KHTgxDcAQFjABegQIBRAN&usg=AOvVaw27nSb9xu-GP_U5GkRqwjbh.

Nix tore his UCL in 2019. He opted for a PRP injection and rehab as opposed to repair. He basically took the Tanaka rout- keep pitching with it and hope it holds together.

Quote from fenn68 on February 16, 2021, 3:17 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on February 16, 2021, 2:12 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on February 16, 2021, 1:49 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 16, 2021, 1:43 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on February 16, 2021, 12:58 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 16, 2021, 12:33 pm

I guess a few players we need to watch for confirmation of what we saw in an abbreviated 2020:

1. Paddack (of course) since he had some real problems (and bad stats) in 2020 but that was a mixture of very bad and very good performance. Did he work on his 2020 issues in the off season? Is he effective vs. poor teams and ineffective vs. good teams? If yes, is that fine for the #5 SP?

2. Cronenworth ... most are not looking at him as a potential problem but he had one great month (Aug) and a not so impressive month (Sep) plus his AB vs LHP were weak. Will he survive as the starter or will Kim take over the regular 2B role (if he is as advertised)?

3. Grisham won the gold glove and hit well ... yet few saw him before 2020 as a plus CF ... what is real?

These are the questions that will be exciting to see during ST. And the questions that I kind of had in mind. Who is Paddack? Is he a 5 spot guy, a bull pen guy, or needs to be replaced with someone more effective? What is Cro, Aug or Sept? Can Kim hit ML fastball velocity? Is Grisham really a CFer? Or does he bulk up a little, and become an excellent LFer when Pham is done after the season? Then, how does SD handle CF in 2022?

However, its nice to have these questions, versus, will declining vet player on a swan song be good enough to eek SD into the playoffs?

ie:Paddack

You didn't suggest the possibility he's much more than a #5 starter?

We thought he was going to be our Ace after 2019....he's too young(and determined) to rule anything out at this point.

It's still quite possible in 2022 we have SEVEN bona fide top of the rotation starters....could you imagine?

Musgrove would have to be 2020 Musgrove just as Paddack would have to be 2019 Paddack but....

Darvish/Snell/Lamet/Clevinger/Musgrove/Paddack/Gore.

Talk about a "good problem"!

 

 

 

At the rate he got shelled last season, and with his stubbornness (determined as you put), to not (at this time) develop a 3rd pitch. Yes, he could be nothing more than a #5 on a good/great team.

Now, if he can pull his head out, stop listening to his non-professional baseball coach brother, develop a curve, cutter, or a slider. Then sky is the limit for him. His destiny is up in the air by this time next season, IMO. Proof is in the pudding, as they say. Is he the Sheriff or a deputy?

Paddack currently throws a fastball, changeup, cutter and curve. Both his cutter and curve are workable third pitches. What he needs to do is regain the explosive life on his fastball.

I would suggest his main improvement needs to be command and a more balanced pitch selection.

He missed a lot in the zone ... and hitters were sitting on pitches. 58% FB and 31% Changes ... if he is off on one they sit on the other not worried about curves, sliders, cutters. Result his hard hit % jumped from about 32% (2019) to 47% (2020).

As a SP needs to use that 3rd pitch more and improve command of the FB primarily.

 

Quote from Ben Davey on February 16, 2021, 10:25 pm

I 100% stand by my claim that if Nix pitches meaningful innings then something horrendous happened.  Even if he started the Triple-A season 5-0 with a .90 ERA and a 13 K/9, he wouldnt be on the team.  He is not on the 40 man, and the Padres already have enough players under contract on the 40 man that its hard to envision a noncatastrophic scenario where he gets added and plays.  Not a knock on Nix, its just reality.  Could he pitch well enough to be traded and pitch for another team?  Sure.

Paddack was never an ace, and no one (well no one smart) ever thought he would be an ace.  He was always a best case scenario a solid mid rotation starter, more likely back end or bullpen depending on how his 3rd/4th pitches came along.  People claimed he was an ace in 2019 because we had people like Nick Margavicious and Jacob Nix pitching. Dont get me wrong, I like Paddack, I hope he has developed his curve enough that it makes him more than a one trick pony, but we saw last year, if he doesnt have feel for his changeup, hitters can sit fastball and hammer it and if he throws a hanging curve its not hard for them to adjust and hammer that too.  TBH, I think the best thing Paddack could do is spend sometime working with someone like Greg Maddux.  Paddack might have better natural stuff, but no one is a better pitcher (why Paddack is still a thrower), if he learns to be a pitcher he could be really dominant

Quote from Ben Davey on February 16, 2021, 10:36 pm

The "simple" plan to give the owners expanded playoff isnt just that.  Its about setting precedence, with the CBA expiring any concessions that the players make will be used against them at the bargaining table.

Expanded playoffs are the thing the owners really want as it brings in millions of dollars more, of that extra money the players see virtually none of it.  (Yes they have playoff shares but its no where near the money the teams get).  Expanded playoffs will happen, but doubt we see it until the next CBA

The DH is something both players and owners want, but the owners are trying to use it as leverage.  Someone made an analogy about taking your significant other out to see a movie you both really want to see, but telling them "since I let you pick the movie, I get to pick dinner."  Can it work?  Sure, but is it a bit shady?  Yep, but thats what owners are trying to do.

So really, what needs to happen is they both just agree on having a DH and nothing else.  Everyone is happy and the rest gets reevaluated next year.

Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2021, 7:54 am

Well looks as though the Padres played the timing game well ... today is the first day players can be added to the 60 day IL (Clevinger and Wingenter) and they have yet to "officially" sign Melancon and Kela.

So, for now, they have skirted the need for any DFA and will get to evaluate all the candidates during ST.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 17, 2021, 8:22 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2021, 7:54 am

Well looks as though the Padres played the timing game well ... today is the first day players can be added to the 60 day IL (Clevinger and Wingenter) and they have yet to "officially" sign Melancon and Kela.

So, for now, they have skirted the need for any DFA and will get to evaluate all the candidates during ST.

I saw on MLBTR that a couple of other teams had moved guys to the IL. So kudos to Preller on his timing.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 17, 2021, 8:41 am

When players “want” to play for you they are willing to work with you on the timing of the agreement.

Something new to this franchise but welcome to be sure.

Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2021, 9:03 am

With a full 40 man and getting Clevinger / Wingenter on the 60 day (assumed for now) ... Padres put themselves in a decent roster manipulation position in ST and more importantly during the season.

Since at he end of ST it appears inevitable (baring injuries) that at least three players will get DFA being out of minor league options:

1. during the season, there will be three open 40 man roster slots ... so "easy" to select a non-roster player (any position) as needed to enhance the 26 man ML roster ... preferable with minor league options but not necessary. Thinking RP since after the DFA of maybe three RP ... may need call-up RP but the three will have moved to other organizations. So, whomever out of Knehr, Wilson, Fox ... et al who is looking good in the minors can be added. Also, a wide open window for Gore if the keep Morejon in the minors and option Paddack.
2. in ST, knowing that there will be as many as three slots open, potentially makes trading one of the out of option players easier by being able to take back someone (with options) that requires a 40 man slot rather than a non-roster player. Might get a more ML ready piece to create some INF/OF/DH insurance.

Seems as though Preller is in a good roster situation.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 17, 2021, 10:49 am

FWIW, Cassavell has an article on the SD page and his forecast (barring injury) is 9 guys make the pen out of ST.

Pagan, Pomeranz, Melancon, Kela, Adams, Johnson, Morejon, Strahm, and Stammen. Leaving Guerra, Hill, and Castillo on the outside looking in. I disagree with Morejon, as I think he returns to starter status in MiL. Hill and Castillo have options, so they can start the season in MiL. Leaving Guerra, taking the spot that Cassavell slated for Morejon.