Quote from Brian Connelly on February 12, 2021, 4:17 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2021, 11:50 am

Will have to see the terms of the deal .... and who gets DFA/dealt.

Melancon has had his moments ... so a decent option to upgrade the pen. Actually the fact that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher .... with the Padres plus INF defense .. might be very useful when a double play is needed or matched against an extreme fly ball hitter or if trying to avoid that critical sac fly. A good balance to Pagan ... Johnson ... Altavilla ... Williams as RH extreme fly ball pitchers ... even Adams is more a fly ball pitcher.

 

Well..  it's not my $, so I'm going to hope for the best, but we just gave $ to a RH closer who had 14 K in 22.2 IP.  DO love the groundball inducement; could/should play really well with Pads, but as reported:  In addition to the fact that he’ll pitch all of 2021 at age 36, last year’s 91.7 mph average fastball represented the second-lowest mark of his career while his 8.7 percent swinging-strike rate was a career-low. 

Not trending the right way.  Hoping it's a 1 year deal "transitioning" closing duties to Pom/Pagan.  But it feels like an "old Padres" move where we acknowledge a need but don't fill it the way we'd really like to (with a 30 y.o. throwing 6-7 MPH harder).

It will be interesting to see what the $ & maybe especially years difference winds up being between Melancon & Rosenthal.

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2021, 4:28 pm

I would guess Preller is on the phone still trying to leverage the RP into deals. If nothing else, need to open a 40 man slot for Melancon unless the signing is not going to be made official (after the physical) until the start of ST when Clevinger / Wingenter can go 60 day IL.

A bit of a timing game as to when other teams would pay up for the low hanging fruit on the Padres RP tree combined with waiting to see if everyone makes it through ST healthy.

So as it appears to stand:

LHRP (3) Pomeranz, Strahm, Hill / Castillo (both have options)

RHRP (5) Pagan, Melancon, Adams, Johnson, plus 1 ... likely Stammen leaving Guerra, Altavilla, Williams (all out of options) DFA candidates at some point. Of course if they go 14 pitchers ... one might get saved unless that spot goes to a 6th starter.

Might see a run of IL stints during ST and the season for the out of option types and other than the “last RP” in the mix ... the remainder are not likely to get DFA during the season.

Don’t have any idea what Preller thinks of the non-roster Padre RP candidates but that may figure into the thinking for now. Hard to envision trading for a quality ML RP with minor league options at this point ... at least for a “fair price” ... too many other teams in the hunt.

Given the current shuffling of marginal RP across the league ... hard to imagine any of the Padres potential DFA would clear waivers at this point before ST. Has to be a lot who are worse filling 40 man roster slots on other teams.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 12, 2021, 4:29 pm

So close to ST I'm guessing Padres might wait to formally announce until ST, to avoid having to DFA someone...

... unless they have a deal in hand for someone like Guerra.  But better IMO to just hold all the RP's through ST  to compete & depth.

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2021, 4:42 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 12, 2021, 4:17 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2021, 11:50 am

Will have to see the terms of the deal .... and who gets DFA/dealt.

Melancon has had his moments ... so a decent option to upgrade the pen. Actually the fact that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher .... with the Padres plus INF defense .. might be very useful when a double play is needed or matched against an extreme fly ball hitter or if trying to avoid that critical sac fly. A good balance to Pagan ... Johnson ... Altavilla ... Williams as RH extreme fly ball pitchers ... even Adams is more a fly ball pitcher.

 

Well..  it's not my $, so I'm going to hope for the best, but we just gave $ to a RH closer who had 14 K in 22.2 IP.  DO love the groundball inducement; could/should play really well with Pads, but as reported:  In addition to the fact that he’ll pitch all of 2021 at age 36, last year’s 91.7 mph average fastball represented the second-lowest mark of his career while his 8.7 percent swinging-strike rate was a career-low. 

Not trending the right way.  Hoping it's a 1 year deal "transitioning" closing duties to Pom/Pagan.  But it feels like an "old Padres" move where we acknowledge a need but don't fill it the way we'd really like to (with a 30 y.o. throwing 6-7 MPH harder).

It will be interesting to see what the $ & maybe especially years difference winds up being between Melancon & Rosenthal.

Have not heard any of the reporting suggesting Melancon was signed to be the closer ... most still give that to Pomeranz ... maybe shared with Pagan.

More likely he is a “high leverage” situation RP to stop a rally in maybe the 7th or 8th allowing the other two to handle the 9th.

For the past few years a lot of the analytical folks have been suggesting the best use of the closer may not be the 9th but at a critical point earlier in the game. With Pomeranz, Pagan, and now Melancon ... Padres have both sides covered. I now expect a lot of match-ups were any of the three may show up at a critical point in the 7th vs. the 9th.

Liking this more as I look at the difference between Pagan (hard throwing fly ball pitcher) and Melancon (softer throwing ground ball pitcher) ... two entirely different looks to insert based on the situation and opponent’s weakness.

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2021, 4:52 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 12, 2021, 4:29 pm

So close to ST I'm guessing Padres might wait to formally announce until ST, to avoid having to DFA someone...

... unless they have a deal in hand for someone like Guerra.  But better IMO to just hold all the RP's through ST  to compete & depth.

That would be my call .... unless a trade is “appealing” but not one just to move a body.

Wonder if that rumored interest in Cooper (RF/1B) is still in play and maybe a RP (or two) might get moved with a prospect for him.

Wonder how other teams would rank Guerra - Altavilla - Williams as potential adds to their staffs? Probably a bad team (e.g. Detroit, Pitt) may like Guerra but a potential contender might opt for Altavilla or Williams (Phil, Wash) given their ML glimpses of effectiveness.

Probably different view is a trade now vs. a waiver claim.

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2021, 4:56 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 12, 2021, 11:34 am

Padres To Sign Mark Melancon

By Steve Adams | February 12, 2021 at 1:30pm CDT

The Padres have agreed to a deal with free-agent reliever Mark Melancon, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). The deal with Melancon, an ISE Baseball client, will become official once he’s passed a physical.

Cassavell has it at a 1 year deal ... no dollars yet.

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2021, 5:51 am

Padres announce 33 non-roster players invited to ML camp for ST. (Note 75 is the max allowed as I recall).

23 are pitchers ... a lot of veteran minor leaguers that are in contention for the AAA roster and a few “prospects” probably ticketed for lower levels. For development purposes 2020 draft picks Lange and Haynes got the call and, in a bit of a surprise, 2019 LHP Elliott. Note that 73 includes Clevinger, Wingenter, and Burdi (non-roster) who are recovering from TJ but likely are there to work with the medical staff and start rehab work.

Only 10 position players ... 2 catchers invited (Rivas and Fernandez) ... 4 minor league veteran INF ticketed for AAA (Katoh, Forimon, Castillo, Tanelu), 4 prospects (Abrams, Rosario, Hassell, Mears).

With a reduced ST schedule (no split squad games) that should allow a slow up ramp of the likely ML 26 ... get the bulk of the AAA roster in shape ... and give early developmental work for the prospects.

A bit surprised with a few prospects “missing” from the invites but AAA likely: Bacher and Kennedy ,,, pitchers who could use the work to get ready for the start of the minor league season. Still room to invite two more (FA signings on minor league deals?). Always can “un-invite” players if needed I guess.

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2021, 7:02 am

No really an issue for the ML roster ... but something to consider for the AAA roster.

Last I read .... minor league camp will not begin until the ML camp is over and the ML and AAA teams move to their home site. Lower levels season starts will be delayed ... maybe 2 -3 weeks given a reasonable time for their ST.

Now considering who is in ML camp .... having a bit of an issue with assembling a probable AAA roster. No issue with the pitchers ... more than enough for the ML - AAA - AA rosters. INF / C should work (except no logical 1B). OF is a bit of a question ... expect Ona to be sent down but don’t expect Hassell or Means to be in AAA ... so who?

Are the expecting to option O’Grady and sign a minor league FA or two for the OF? Or do they just expect some internal options to ramp up very quickly in EP?

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 13, 2021, 9:09 am

Definitely a unique ST!   When you "digest" the 74 in camp (41 with Melancon + 33).  It makes a lot of sense:

• 12 INF in camp, but only 6 on roster incl Marcano.  9 OF in camp, with 7 on roster.  = 3 guys/each field position.   No point in bringing in AAA OF types with zero chance of making roster.  Roster composition clearly indicates Jake & probably Kim will get playing time in OF early on.  Kim will probably lead team in AB's along with Mateo & O'Grady.
• Haynes & Mears look like "reaches"... but those spots "would have" gone to Cole Wilcox & Hudson Head.  Good, but lower tier, remaining prospect development
• With MLB SP SO deep with 8 on roster plus Gore, the exclusion of Bachar & Kennedy does make sense; they are behind Avila & Nix in my book.
• DO need a 6th C "body" in ST.  More players & P than a "normal" ST where always start with 6 C.

Since the 75 in camp for safety is a hard limit...

• Figure 30 incl IL on Pads, 25 to AAA, leaves 20 +/- back to AA (or lower i.e. Haynes, Mears) ST... but see below:
• Very likely to see "temporary" AAA roster for the first month while the next level of minors goes through their ST, then a wholesale change; maybe 5-6 P's & OF from AAA to a lower level, same # up from the "AA & lower"camp.
• Only way to "add" to the 75 is by subtracting others via Trade or Release.  Both are likely.   Minors FA P's especially never ALL make a Minors affiliate.  They are there to compete & for depth.  And the MLB bullpen logjam eventually has to resolve, but maybe not until end of ST.  Either would open the door for AAA OF types to be added later in ST, before season starts.