Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 28, 2021, 10:46 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 28, 2021, 9:48 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 28, 2021, 9:27 am

They're player options, but if he chooses not to exercise them the team still pays him 1M. It's a terrible contract.

He will either opt out at some point & get the 1 MM as a buyout, OR (very unlikely) stay on the mutual option in 2024 @  10 MM.  If either side opts out of the mutual option Profar still gets the 1MM.

It's unquestionably a very player friendly contract, but I think Pads win too:  they're getting Profar back for a 2021 cost of 4.5 MM which is actually a decrease from the 5.7 MM (prorated down) he made in 2020.  Even a "BAD" version of Profar is a SH super utility guy with great plate patience & has SOME floor value.  Pads take on the risk in the deal, but it's not near the whole amount of the contract.

 

The only way the Padres win is if Profar is the guy he was down the stretch last year, but even if that happens he opts out and you're paying him to leave. Far more likely is that he's the guy he's been for the majority of his career and you're stuck paying him more than he's worth when he exercises the options. Those are the kind of options you give to a star player you're desperate to keep not an inconsistent role player who clearly wants to be here.

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2021, 12:35 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 28, 2021, 10:46 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 28, 2021, 9:48 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 28, 2021, 9:27 am

They're player options, but if he chooses not to exercise them the team still pays him 1M. It's a terrible contract.

He will either opt out at some point & get the 1 MM as a buyout, OR (very unlikely) stay on the mutual option in 2024 @  10 MM.  If either side opts out of the mutual option Profar still gets the 1MM.

It's unquestionably a very player friendly contract, but I think Pads win too:  they're getting Profar back for a 2021 cost of 4.5 MM which is actually a decrease from the 5.7 MM (prorated down) he made in 2020.  Even a "BAD" version of Profar is a SH super utility guy with great plate patience & has SOME floor value.  Pads take on the risk in the deal, but it's not near the whole amount of the contract.

 

The only way the Padres win is if Profar is the guy he was down the stretch last year, but even if that happens he opts out and you're paying him to leave. Far more likely is that he's the guy he's been for the majority of his career and you're stuck paying him more than he's worth when he exercises the options. Those are the kind of options you give to a star player you're desperate to keep not an inconsistent role player who clearly wants to be here.

As I posted earlier .. if you look at the full scope of 2018-20 for Profar (Tex-OAK-SD) .. he is a 1.5-2.0 WAR player (and about a 100 wRC+) and that does fit the contract he got (albeit a convoluted deal).

Need to delete those early Texas years coming off serious injury and pre age 25 and evaluate him for what he delivers (and the pricing of that in the market).

The last 3 years probably creates a downside floor in the Padres’ minds that is worth extending this deal even if he does not max performance.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2021, 1:20 pm

Interview with Preller yesterday or today ... nothing surprising BUT

1. As expected, he said he is OK with the current roster and is focusing on getting ready for ST

2. As expected, he said he is always looking for ways to improve the depth of the roster but implied he is not actively going out to generated more moves

3. The twist (but not totally unusual) was his comment that he is receiving a lot of calls from FA wanting to join the Padres. One spin is that the current Padres are a desirable team to play for. Of course the more basic issue is that these player (3-4 weeks from ST) are still unemployed and clearly the Padres are adding players (and payroll).

So, as Preller plays it cool and content with the current roster ... the unemployed get more desperate and may really drop their demands and the strike a team friendly deal with Preller for the roster depth upgrade.

Preller is in a good spot for additional negotiations.

=====

MIGHT add some credibility to the Wainwright “offer” maybe stemming for Wainwright not getting offers he likes (especially from STL) ... at 39 might prefer not be the key pitcher yet be on a contender ... agent calls Preller to see if there is a fit (which there always is at the right price) and Preller tosses out a team friendly offer.

Agent could be always using Preller to up the bids from other teams since the Padres. Mets, and Blue Jays seem to be the only spenders they winter.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 28, 2021, 3:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2021, 12:35 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 28, 2021, 10:46 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 28, 2021, 9:48 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 28, 2021, 9:27 am

They're player options, but if he chooses not to exercise them the team still pays him 1M. It's a terrible contract.

He will either opt out at some point & get the 1 MM as a buyout, OR (very unlikely) stay on the mutual option in 2024 @  10 MM.  If either side opts out of the mutual option Profar still gets the 1MM.

It's unquestionably a very player friendly contract, but I think Pads win too:  they're getting Profar back for a 2021 cost of 4.5 MM which is actually a decrease from the 5.7 MM (prorated down) he made in 2020.  Even a "BAD" version of Profar is a SH super utility guy with great plate patience & has SOME floor value.  Pads take on the risk in the deal, but it's not near the whole amount of the contract.

 

The only way the Padres win is if Profar is the guy he was down the stretch last year, but even if that happens he opts out and you're paying him to leave. Far more likely is that he's the guy he's been for the majority of his career and you're stuck paying him more than he's worth when he exercises the options. Those are the kind of options you give to a star player you're desperate to keep not an inconsistent role player who clearly wants to be here.

As I posted earlier .. if you look at the full scope of 2018-20 for Profar (Tex-OAK-SD) .. he is a 1.5-2.0 WAR player (and about a 100 wRC+) and that does fit the contract he got (albeit a convoluted deal).

Need to delete those early Texas years coming off serious injury and pre age 25 and evaluate him for what he delivers (and the pricing of that in the market).

The last 3 years probably creates a downside floor in the Padres’ minds that is worth extending this deal even if he does not max performance.

 

 

2018 was a good year. 2019 he was good against lefties, but hit under .200 against righties and spent a portion of the season battling the yips. He was looking like a likely non-tender before we traded for him. Last year he was hitting under .200 until late August. 1 good year and 1 good month shouldn't overwrite what has otherwise been an underwhelming career.

Having said that what I think I should have made clear is that I don't dislike Profar. I think he can be a useful piece and he's an easy guy to root for. I just hate the contract structure.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 28, 2021, 3:57 pm

I’m glad we signed Profar.....but I’m on record that I would have preferred using that $$ to sign Rosenthal.

I think “this team”,“right now”, would have benefited by 2 years of Rosenthal over 3 years of Profar.

I think we could find a 4th or 5th outfielder during ST for $1 mil easier than we could find a lock down Closer that would make the entire bullpen stronger by moving each guy down a notch.
Rosenthal would do that.

Obviously  Preller sees Profar as  a starting left fielder after Pham leaves but then he gave him opt outs?

I just really hope Pom and Pagan don’t cost us this year as closers.

 

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 28, 2021, 6:17 pm

I know this might not necessarily help SD this season, but what do you think it would take to get Waters out of ATL and into SD gold and brown. ATL has Pache tagged for CF, and while Waters can play all OF spots, might be a waste not being in CF. I know teams dont do prospects for prospects much anymore, but both SD and ATL are heavy post season favorites, so they would not want to do much that would jeopardize they ML rosters.

I obviously would not include Gore, Abrams, Weathers, Campusano and probably Hassell.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 28, 2021, 6:38 pm

Looks like Preller scared Mozeliak, Wainwright is resigning with STL. 1 year for $5M plus up to $3M in incentives.

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2021, 7:04 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 28, 2021, 6:38 pm

Looks like Preller scared Mozeliak, Wainwright is resigning with STL. 1 year for $5M plus up to $3M in incentives.

Probably right ... at least my guess of $5-8MM was right for a change.

Quote from fenn68 on January 28, 2021, 7:19 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 28, 2021, 6:17 pm

I know this might not necessarily help SD this season, but what do you think it would take to get Waters out of ATL and into SD gold and brown. ATL has Pache tagged for CF, and while Waters can play all OF spots, might be a waste not being in CF. I know teams dont do prospects for prospects much anymore, but both SD and ATL are heavy post season favorites, so they would not want to do much that would jeopardize they ML rosters.

I obviously would not include Gore, Abrams, Weathers, Campusano and probably Hassell.

 

Hard to see the match since if ATL was willing to move Waters it would be for someone to help them in 2021 (at a minimum). Most likely that would be a power hitting OF, catcher to work with D’Arnaud and carry on past 2021, or of course major RP.

Maybe next off season and using Nola or Campusano as a base for a deal. No likely though.