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Off Season Moves and discussion
#761 · March 25, 2022, 10:49 am
From Steve Adams at MLBTRFO:
Bail out the Padres on Eric Hosmer (no, seriously)
San Diego has spent the better part of a year trying to find some type of taker for Hosmer, who has four years and $59MM remaining on his contract). Hosmer has been a league-average hitter since signing a ridiculous $144MM contract four years ago, and while he’s been better in 2020-21 than he was in 2018-19, no one wants anything to do with the remainder of this deal.
The Twins, however, can afford to take it on – and the Padres are rich in interesting veteran arms whom they may bite the bullet and trade in order to shed such a painful contract.
The Twins’ 2022 payroll projects at around $132MM right now, which is right in line with their franchise record. Adding Hosmer sends that catapulting to $152MM – a new record before even considering the pitcher the Padres would have to include to grease the wheels on this deal.
But the Twins have a regrettable contract of their own on the books in the form of slugger Miguel Sano. Prodigious power aside, Sano is a negative with the glove whose strikeout woes have led to disappointing performances on the whole. He’s owed $12MM before his contract is up – a $9.75MM salary in 2022 and a $2.25MM buyout on a $14MM option. If the Twins are going to bail the Padres out on Hosmer, the Friars could at least oblige them by taking back that $12MM.
Sano-for-Hosmer is a net $47MM gain for the Padres. The trick would be determining just who in their rotation would be a palatable sacrifice for cost savings of that magnitude.
Blake Snell struggled in his first season as a Padre in 2021 but posted a 1.83 ERA with a 39.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate in his final eight starts (44 ⅓ innings). In fact, from June 1 on, Snell had a 3.42 ERA with a 30.1% strikeout rate. He’s owed $28.5MM over the next two seasons. Would the Padres look at their rotation depth and a potential savings of almost $75MM (Snell plus Hosmer) and agree to the arrangement?
I suspect they would, though the Twins might not be so bullish on Snell that they believe he’s worth taking on that type of cash. Even if the Twins feel there’s a bit of value in upgrading their defense by dropping Sano for Hosmer, they’d probably still want the Friars to include some cash to balance the deal.
If not Snell, there are other permutations to explore. The Padres would be loath to give up Joe Musgrove, but if they’re shedding $59MM of Hosmer, plus Musgrove’s $8.625MM, they’re looking at $67MM coming off the books. Even sending Sano to San Diego, you’re looking at $55MM in savings.
The Twins probably don’t value a year of Musgrove (and a marginal Hosmer-over-Sano upgrade) at that rate, but they probably feel Musgrove’s value is closer to $25MM than his actual salary. There’s surplus value, and the two parties could perhaps explore either prospects or cash considerations to offset any gaps. Taking on four years of Hosmer for a year of Musgrove is a stretch, though it’d give the Twins a crack at extending him as well.
It’s rare to see a team successfully dump more than $50MM in a single trade, but the Twins themselves just saved $40MM+ by trading Josh Donaldson to the Yankees.
Hosmer’s annual salary drops to $13MM beginning in 2023, when the Twins currently only have $74.5MM on the books. That doesn’t include a $12.5MM option on Sonny Gray that’ll likely be picked up, but it does include a $35.1MM salary that Carlos Correa might forgo by opting out. The Twins can afford to stomach the Hosmer deal. Going from Hosmer to Sano is arguably an improvement in 2022, and adding an arm like Snell or Musgrove wildly increases their playoff chances in what could be their only season with Correa. For the Twins, 2022 wins are more valuable than ever.
Perhaps the Padres wouldn’t weaken their 2022 roster to this extent to get out from under a Hosmer mistake, and it’s worth reminding that Hosmer has a limited no-trade clause. This could be a non-starter for the Padres, but the Twins should be finding this out for certain – if they haven’t already.
#762 · March 25, 2022, 11:16 am
Quote from 3fingersplit on March 25, 2022, 10:34 am18.5 million and loss of a draft pick for a one year rental?
Conforto is not the final piece that puts this team over the top…fills a spot…sure but the cost far outweighs any return….cbt penalty, draft pick, salary that comes with a injury history….Conforto should have taken the QO because he isn’t going to get better imho
Depends on what Conforto you get. 2017-2019, yes that bat puts us at the top of MLB. 2020-2021, you are right and he just fills a spot.
#763 · March 25, 2022, 11:46 am
Quote from BoosterSD on March 25, 2022, 11:16 amQuote from 3fingersplit on March 25, 2022, 10:34 am18.5 million and loss of a draft pick for a one year rental?
Conforto is not the final piece that puts this team over the top…fills a spot…sure but the cost far outweighs any return….cbt penalty, draft pick, salary that comes with a injury history….Conforto should have taken the QO because he isn’t going to get better imho
Depends on what Conforto you get. 2017-2019, yes that bat puts us at the top of MLB. 2020-2021, you are right and he just fills a spot.
Risks are part of the game … win some lose some. I keep reminding myself that the first objective is to make the playoffs (ignore the LAD) and with the Padres pitching just a decent offense should have them deep in play for at least that #6 playoff slot as the NL East bumps each other off. Unless they change something … the #4-6 slots are based on wins (or could be the 2nd place finishers). Either way the Padre are legit contenders and just a little boost may make the difference.
Then in the playoffs … pitching is king .. Padres strong suit.
#764 · March 25, 2022, 11:59 am
The piece by Steve Adams is interesting … from an outsider too. Almost can see it make sense.
MINN has the money … they really are unhappy with Sano at 1B … they really need more SP … they have made a lot of moves to win now. If they are willing to spend … would improve their team by a lot.
SD saves money to potentially deploy on Conforto in LF and would initially move Voit to 1B and Sano to DH, I guess. Plus eliminates the issue of Hosmer not opting out and gaining full no trade after the season. Gore or Paddack gets Snell’s spot in the rotation. Is Gore - Conforto - Sano better than Snell - Profar - Hosmer now and for the future?
Throw in another potential wrinkle … Tatis returns, Kim to bench, Abrams called up for 2B, Cronenworth to 1B, Voit back to DH … Sano either dealt pre-trade deadline or just released. That might create a very good 2nd half line-up offensively and defensively.
A lot of IFs and risk but not sure status quo gets the Padres to where they want to go in 22.
#765 · March 25, 2022, 12:51 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on March 25, 2022, 11:16 amQuote from 3fingersplit on March 25, 2022, 10:34 am18.5 million and loss of a draft pick for a one year rental?
Conforto is not the final piece that puts this team over the top…fills a spot…sure but the cost far outweighs any return….cbt penalty, draft pick, salary that comes with a injury history….Conforto should have taken the QO because he isn’t going to get better imho
Depends on what Conforto you get. 2017-2019, yes that bat puts us at the top of MLB. 2020-2021, you are right and he just fills a spot.
It's encouraging at least a little that the NYM offered him the QO.
If they felt he was not going to perform they wouldn't have even offered.
Unless of course they had some kind of handshake agreement so they could get the draft pick?
#766 · March 25, 2022, 1:42 pm
Listened to a Preller on radio this afternoon ... he really seemed "tired".
Bottom line he was clear that the roster that is here will be the basis of the opening day roster. No indication that he is in hot pursuit of any FA or trade. Maybe something minor if the opportunity presents.
Expect Profar in LF ... Kim at SS to start the season and adapt after that if they are not delivering.
#767 · March 25, 2022, 2:27 pm
So, IF we accept Preller’s view the opening day roster is here … then
Starting 9: Nola, Hosmer, Voit, Cronenworth, Kim, Machado, Profar, Grisham, Myers.
Bench has some choice:
1 - 2. Looks as though they may go with 3 catchers (Campusano to AAA) … in part Nola and Alfaro have some ability to go to 1B, Nola maybe 2B in an emergency, Alfaro to LF in an emergency. That is 2 of the 4 bench slots.
3. An OFer … a likely choice between Mazara (L), Thompson (R), and maybe Azocar (R) who is the best fielder and a CF.
4. An INF … toss up between Rosario (on the 40 man) or Hinosoja (non-roster) but the better back fielder. However, if the Padres were willing to drop Profar back into the INF in an emergency the could go with another OF (who may be a better bat off the bench). More than a emergency short term need … Abrams is there for a longer term need and Tatis will return.
That is thin on options … might be some tweaks as other teams start cutting down to their opening day roster.
#768 · March 25, 2022, 5:21 pm
I heard the same interview, and he sounded like a guy who has tried and failed at making every possible permutation happen in LF. While I appreciate the effort, we're at a point where that quite simply isn't good enough. I fear that we're trying to have our cake and eat it too. That puts us in danger of maintaining our hope at long-term sustainability at the cost of not quite doing enough to make our short and mid term team good enough to truly compete at the highest level in the league.
#769 · March 25, 2022, 5:23 pm
Also, I wish Rosario was having a better spring. He still could break camp based on how limited our bench options are, but with a good spring I think he's a slam dunk to start the season as our UTIL.
#770 · March 25, 2022, 6:26 pm
Quote from sportwarrior on March 25, 2022, 5:23 pmAlso, I wish Rosario was having a better spring. He still could break camp based on how limited our bench options are, but with a good spring I think he's a slam dunk to start the season as our UTIL.
Oddly I would prefer him getting ABs in AAA to start the season rather than sitting on the bench … then if hitting (and Kim is not) he might get the call for 2B shifting Cronenworth to SS. Of course Abrams would be in the same discussion.
Probably want Kim - Abrams - Rosario all playing and getting ABs in April then make moves in May that improves the team.