Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2022, 9:04 am

Not totally clear on the new CBT thresholds / penalties but from what I can tell the Padres would pay (as a second time offender) an additional 30% on every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM. So $6MM more if they used all that $20MM window. Actually not that’s bad. Go beyond $250MM the % goes up plus the next first round pick gets pushed back by 10 slots.

Roster Resource has the Padres payroll currently at $218 … $12MM under the threshold. Couple that with the $20MM window for 1st tier penalty … potentially $32MM to work with at the cost of a $6MM penalty (max). Then consider the FA after the season (and potential opt outs) good chance they fall below in 2023 and reset.

That should be enough to get two decent bats. Also, given the pitching situation with arms that cannot be optioned and an “excess” catcher … Padres could create some additional space by moving one or more of Caratini, Pagan, Johnson, Lamet, Stammen … they are costing collectively about $12MM.

If all that holds … not sure why the intense need to move either Myers or Hosmer … create another hole in the offense … and “spend” a critical prospect for the future.

Quote from BoosterSD on March 14, 2022, 9:12 am

Well, it looks as if Abrams might get a chance to break camp with the ML team. Tatis is out 3 months with a fractured wrist that may require surgery. Just a quick report on the Padres website, it sounds like it happened during the offseason. Wonder if it occurred during that motorcycle accident he was involved in late last year?

I imagine this will put a kink into some of the trade plans that Preller might have been working on,

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2022, 9:23 am

Quote from BoosterSD on March 14, 2022, 9:12 am

Well, it looks as if Abrams might get a chance to break camp with the ML team. Tatis is out 3 months with a fractured wrist that may require surgery.

I imagine this will put a kink into some of the trade plans that Preller might have been working on,

Probably more than a “kink”. My guess is the Kim gets the starting role … long shot they jump directly to Abrams (but maybe mid-season). Profar likely refocuses on the INF back-up.

Preller is not going to throw in the towel … so maybe renewed effort in adding multiple OF/DH bats and maybe less urgency to move Myers / Hosmer.

If they can add Suzuki … willing to push the luxury tax issue … they could add that impact 2nd bat … add two and that could minimize the offensive loss from Tatis.

Might also shift to a willingness to move an “excess” pitcher such as Paddack who in this market should have good value for bat.

Quote from BoosterSD on March 14, 2022, 9:54 am

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2022, 9:23 am

Quote from BoosterSD on March 14, 2022, 9:12 am

Well, it looks as if Abrams might get a chance to break camp with the ML team. Tatis is out 3 months with a fractured wrist that may require surgery.

I imagine this will put a kink into some of the trade plans that Preller might have been working on,

Probably more than a “kink”. My guess is the Kim gets the starting role … long shot they jump directly to Abrams (but maybe mid-season). Profar likely refocuses on the INF back-up.

Preller is not going to throw in the towel … so maybe renewed effort in adding multiple OF/DH bats and maybe less urgency to move Myers / Hosmer.

If they can add Suzuki … willing to push the luxury tax issue … they could add that impact 2nd bat … add two and that could minimize the offensive loss from Tatis.

Might also shift to a willingness to move an “excess” pitcher such as Paddack who in this market should have good value for bat.

The problem with Kim is his bat, a big difference between Kim's and Tatis bat.

Could the best solution be to now, sign Suzuki and Bryant and play Suzuki in RF, Myers in LF, Bryant at 3B and move Machado back to SS for the first half of the season. Then when Tatis is healthy, move Machado back to 3B, move Bryant to LF, and let Myers and Hosmer split 1B and DH duties based on pitching match ups and who is hot?

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 14, 2022, 9:57 am

Don’t think we could afford both Bryant and Suzuki.

Guess now it depends on how much we really want Suzuki and what Bryant would accept.

Another benefit to signing Bryant is it keeps him from going back to SF

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2022, 10:53 am

Most were speculating Bryant would be in the $27MM range AAV ... 6 year deal. Suzuki maybe in the $12MM range ... 5 year deal.

So both would total about $39MM plus. If the Padres trimmed some of the other C/RP salaries they could accommodate both and stay under the second luxury tax threshold ... for 2022.

If so, probably go with an OF of Bryant - Grisham - Suzuki, INF of Machado - Kim - Cronenworth, Hosmer / Myers split 1B/DH. I am OK with Kim ... and his superior defense at SS given the other 8 in the line-up would provide the need offense. Also, keeping Machado at his best defensive position and utilizing the plus defense of Kim would only enhance the performance of the SP. When Tatis comes back he just adds some flexibility with the rest of the regulars as they tire in July - August or set-up a trade deadline move of Myers or Hosmer.

Not sure on the longer term payroll issue those long term signings would create .... add Bryant, Suzuki to Machado, Tatis the prepare for the need to re-sign Musgrove and/Clevinger after this season ... and deal with the FA of Darvish / Snell after next season. Somewhere there needs to be some low cost pieces to balance out the big deals.

Instead of a $27MM Bryant ... maybe Preller focuses on trades for the likes of Meadows or Reynolds or even Olson.

Quote from Randy Manese on March 14, 2022, 11:05 am

My guess is that we sign Suzuki but not Bryant.  Kim has performed steadily on defense and there were spurts of offense that reflected what he did in the KBO; I think he will get the majority of reps at SS with Cronenworth coming in against really tough RH pitchers.  If we add Suzuki and trade for another bat, then we should be competitive in the 2-3 months Tatis is out.  Better starting pitching and solid defense will have to carry the team more in the first couple of months.  Also, need to sort out that bullpen and find someone to close on a regular basis.

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2022, 11:17 am

I think in the pen the end of the game will be sorted out among Suarez (effective closer in Japan), Lamet (has the stuff if healthy), and maybe Johnson. Long-shot if the new pitching coach unlocks Adams who has the stuff … Adams.

No better option out there as FA … unless you like Jansen at a very high cost … money need for the bats.

Quote from fenn68 on March 14, 2022, 11:21 am

Report is that OAK is trading Olson to ATL and that should set a lot in motion with Freeman and Rizzo. LAD and NYY respectively. Not sure who else may be in on a 1B … earlier rumors included TOR and TEX but doubt either step in for those two.