Quote from Randy Manese on December 14, 2021, 7:16 pm

Interestingly, FanGraphs now lists Brandon Valenzuela's international signing in 2017 as September vice July.  If accurate, this would possibly explain why the Padres didn't protect him on their 40-man, since he would not be subject to the Rule 5 draft until December 22.

The significance is that those international players who signed after the team to which they would have been placed had already completed  their minor league season would not have that first year counted against them with respect to the Rule 5 draft.  For Valenzuela, he would have been assigned to the Dominican Summer League, which concludes in August thus if FanGraphs is accurate, he didn't have to be put on the Padres 40-man this year.  Valenzuela did start his minor league career with the DSL Padres in 2018.

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2021, 3:00 am

Good news on Valenzuela … the “extra” control year gives the Padres some added flexibility to pace his development (although hopefully he does not need it).

One non-roster year and three option years pushes the ML decision point until 2026. At that point Nola (who will be about 35-35) becomes a FA while Campusano will be still around. Alfaro and Caratini are both likely to be gone (both FA in 2024) but both at 28 … so maybe one could be extended as the #2 catcher.

Don’t want to get overly optimistic on his 2021 in low A … but if he can replicate his production in 2022 at High A … Padres have something.

Depending on what the Padres really project for each catcher in the mix … they could have some useful trade chips at some point.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2021, 12:56 pm

Padres sign Nomar Mazara to a minor league deal with an invite to ST.

If the DH comes to the NL this could turn out to be a good move. Mazara’s last two seasons in DET/CHI were not good but his offense was serviceable in his time with TEX before that … his defense in bad so a DH role may be just what is needed.

LHH with 20 HR potential and grades out slightly below average as a hitter … but considering the Padre current alternative … an upgrade. Still only 26 so maybe they get lucky.

Preller sure likes the guys he was involved with in Texas … Mazara - Profar - Alfaro.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 16, 2021, 1:06 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2021, 12:56 pm

Padres sign Nomar Mazara to a minor league deal with an invite to ST.

If the DH comes to the NL this could turn out to be a good move. Mazara’s last two seasons in DET/CHI were not good but his offense was serviceable in his time with TEX before that … his defense in bad so a DH role may be just what is needed.

LHH with 20 HR potential and grades out slightly below average as a hitter … but considering the Padre current alternative … an upgrade. Still only 26 so maybe they get lucky.

Preller sure likes the guys he was involved with in Texas … Mazara - Profar - Alfaro.

A decent flier move, low risk and there may still be some upside. For what I assume is a very reasonable price, much better option than Pham IMO.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 16, 2021, 5:35 pm

Like both Mazara and Hinojosa as depth pieces.  Should be solid at El Paso with a chance for Mazara to stick with big league team.   Still like Dickerson over Mazara but may be beyond the budget for the role he might fill and more likely to break down than Mazara.  Like everyone else, hoping for that impact OF/DH signing after the lockout ends.  In the meantime, our depth is slowly improving so hopefully the drop-off won't be as dramatic as last year when injuries hit.

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2021, 6:08 pm

Would expect some more minor league signings as depth and just to fill out the AAA/AA rosters. We are in the twilight zone of being able to sign players to minor league deals ONLY IF they were not on any 40 man roster (or IL) when 2021 ended.

So if the lockout lasts until ST … some risk in not signing those depth pieces now expecting they can be signed later. Since I think the Padres only have 13 position players on the 40 man and AAA has not much to fill in … just need some serviceable bodies.

If the CBA is signed consistent with the start of ST … we should see 30 teams enter a feeding frenzy … not just for the “stars” but also for the depth pieces … at least the better ones.

For the Padres, have to believe Preller is harassing the other GM setting up trades to be announced immediately after the new CBA is ratified. Full 40 man roster … a high payroll not likely to go much higher. So, if the trades don’t fill the needs (LF/DH) they need them to shed payroll to pursue FA signings … and may have to look beyond Hosmer and Myers.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 16, 2021, 6:33 pm

Padres hire Matt Williams as 3B coach. Gritty player, great on both sides of the ball, very good hire IMO.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 16, 2021, 6:37 pm

Here is how the offense is currently setting up with 2021 wRC+:

C.   Nola … 100 (good for a catcher)

1B. Hosmer .. 102

2B. Cronenworth ..116

SS. Tatis … 156

3B  Machado .. 122

LF. TBD

CF. Grisham … 103

RF. Myers … 109

DH. TBD

The drop off is significant in trying to fill LF/DH/bench:

Profar (85), Alfaro (73), Caratini (72), Kim (70) and that only gets to 11 meaning the remaining two slots are Campusano (-13) and Rosario (no ML experience).

That “last 5” will be a major drag on fielding a contending team and not sure “moving” either Hosmer or Myers will do more than create larger offensive problem. Time to consider taking a gamble and move pitching (which seems to be in major demand) for adding to the offense?

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2021, 9:45 am

It is going to be a challenging winter for Preller in reshaping the roster to win in 2022 while not destroying the future. Consider the following two tidbits from MLBTradeRumors:

1. The Padres and the Dodgers are the only two teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold and as a result if they sign one of the FA with QO (Castellanos, Conforto, Correa, Freeman, Story) they will lose their 2nd and 5th pick in the 2022 draft and $1MM in international signing money. Not good for the future.
2. Plus (based on the current calculation) the Padres are at $214.7MM luxury tax payroll and anything over the new threshold will be taxed at 30%. Apparently any major excess will likely have to be approved by all the shareholders in the Padres (not just Seidler). Then in future years, getting back under to avoid even more severe penalties will curtail any other payroll enhancements

Beginning to look like improvement will come from trades ... not of Myers or Hosmer because the Padres will have to eat major portions of their salaries, add a major prospect (Abrams and Hassell seem to be the most desired), and moving them will just create another offensive hole they can't fill.

Time for seriously considering trading pitching (I know never enough BUT). I will expand in the next post.