Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2021, 10:23 am

The bullpen you ask? Similar issue as with the SP.

Likely gone will be Guerra and Norwood (both out of options)

Likely in (8): Adams (3 control years); Garcia (2 control years); Hill (3 control years); J0hnson (FA after 2022); Pagan (2 control years); Pomeranz (2 control years); Stammen (FA after 2022); Suarez (player option for 2023). Only Pagan and Hill have minor league options and neither are likely to get optioned. As with the SP ... not much after 2023.

Can put Lamet, Paddack, and Weathers on the bubble here too ... which forces arms off the roster (hopefully via trade). Not sure who has much trade value out of the RP while keep a decent pen in tact. Guess Johnson and Pagan would get a prospect at least.

Looking at the cost and control of the arms SP and RP ... and the desire to remain a contender ... cannot really afford to deal any half way decent prospect for a short term fix. May have to consider deploying future payroll on trying to extend Musgrove ... and maybe one of Clevinger or Snell ... rather than offense and rely on the Abrams, Hassell, Campusano ... and the lower level bats to carry the offense in a few years.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on December 23, 2021, 11:41 am

Padres seem to have assembled a very good coaching staff who have actually developed and improved players' performance over the years.  I'm particularly interested in the boy wonder hitting coach's impact on two players - Grisham and Kim.  If he can get Grisham to his potential and Kim to be consistently good then we have a much stronger team.  Similarly, if Niebla can get just two pitchers, Paddack and Snell, to realize their potential, we should have a dynamite starting 5 provided everyone comes back healthy.

On another note, I'm looking at someone who could be an impact bat but for whatever reason has fallen significantly over the past two years.  The guy I'm thinking about is Keston Hiura, who was one of the most feared bats to come out of the PAC 12 and tore up the minor leagues after being drafted in the first round by Milwaukee.  These last two years he's struggled with a high strikeout rate, but that wasn't the case earlier in his career.  At 25-26, could he regain that stroke that made him so dangerous in the past?  Has to be a full-time DH but is he worth a mid level prospect flyer or one of our may RP candidates?  I know some have Campusano slotted for that role but Hiura has the same kind of power and was thought to have a better hit tool when drafted.  Food for thought.

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2021, 12:45 pm

Agree that Hiura would be an interesting pick-up given his early career potential (and success) … assuming the price tag is not too steep.

Based on some of Melvin’s comments on the new hitting coach … and my “reading between the lines” … I am looking (hoping) for impact on Hosmer’s production. Apparently one of the questions to the new guy from Melvin elicited a response on how the new coach would address a hitter with difficultly hitting high spin and producing  too many ground balls … Hosmer comes to mind. The new guy had a “good answer”.

Also on the pitching coach … he has history with Clevinger in Cleveland when he was dominate. IF he can get Clevinger back to that level the Padres have a #1 SP and a Cy Young candidate. Then layer in Snell, Musgrove, Darvish at top it off with one of Paddack, Lamet, or Weathers … a pretty competitive staff.

Will be interesting to see which Weathers shows up in early season. The very successful version for early 2021 or the poor second half (was that fatigue setting in a rookie or was that the league adjusting?)

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 23, 2021, 5:40 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2021, 12:45 pm

Will be interesting to see which Weathers shows up in early season. The very successful version for early 2021 or the poor second half (was that fatigue setting in a rookie or was that the league adjusting?)

 

With Weathers I really believe it was fatigue. I truly expect Weathers to have a really nice season.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 24, 2021, 12:26 am

Injuries pushed many players beyond their physical comfort zones and into fatigue.  Weathers was one, as well as almost all the regular relief staff; you could also throw in Cronenworth and even Machado as players who would have had even better years had there not been so many injuries.  That has to be the #1 goal of each and every player on the team to come back in the best physical shape possible to make it through a demanding 162 game schedule.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 28, 2021, 6:47 am

Three moves I would make for a 2-3 year World Series window.

1. Trade for Mullins and Means. SD gets Mullins and Means. BAL gets Abrams, Weathers, Caratini or Alfaro, and Hosmer.

2. Sign Schwarber.

3. Trade for Olson. SD gets Olson. OAK gets Campusano, Paddock, Lawson, and Morejon.

Mullins is under control until 2025, and Means and Olson until 2024.

I am sure that these trades will sit wrong with some, but

My concern, giving up Abrams. However, we already know that Mullins is a ML. We think that Abrams will be. I do think that Mullins power numbers will drop leaving BAL, but the BA and OPB probably transfer and he does play CF. Abrams is really blocked by Tatis and Crone.

We do give up two years of control over a LHSP with Weathers versus Means. However, Means has been very successful in a tough to pitch in AL East, and has thrown more innings in one season than Weathers has thrown in his career.

Trading Hosmer allows SD to sign Schwarber or Castellanos. My preference is Schwarber, younger by a year, and LHH vs RHH and is looking for a shorter term contract.

Your OF would then be Myers in LF, Mullins in CF, and Grisham in RF. Machado, Tatis, Crone, and Olson make an All Star INF, and you still have Nola and Alfaro at C, with Schwarber as full time DH. That gives SD, two legit LHH power bats and some real balance.

The starting rotation would be Musgrove, Snell, Cleavinger, Means, and Darvish. With Nick Martinez, Lamet, and Gore all waiting to fill in if needed.

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 8:41 am

Interesting ideas ... but as counter-point:

Trade #1 with Baltimore would never fly with the O's. Baltimore is a bad team, low budget, trying to rebuild for the future ... Mullins and Means combine for a $4MM 2022 cost and have long economical control. O's are willing to deal them but for a load of top prospects (longer control / lower cost). They have no need to deal either one unless the return is a bonanza in elite prospects. Zero chance they would take Hosmer (and his contract) and either catcher (and their contract) since they have ready for 2022 the #1 catching prospect in MLB. I would expect they make separate trades trying to get a better top prospect returns since one team either does not have the quality in a second prospect or they would not be willing to deal two elite prospects.

I know everyone wants to move Hosmer's contract ... is not going to happen and get anything of quality in return plus the Padres would have to bribe the buying team with adding blue chip prospect. A more likely scenario is moving Hosmer to a well financed team (who would take the contract ... or most of it) by adding someone like Campusano for a return of a couple of fringe prospects (or rookie ball types). Think more like NYY taking on Hosmer (looking for a LHH 1B) and Campusano (their catching situation is problematic going forward) for Voit.

I would focus on a deal for Mullins with 4 years control at league minimum and he fills a need now (and for the next few years) in the OF. One caution ... now 27 and last season was his "breakout" season ... not much production before that ... scouts have to be careful in his projection.

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 8:49 am

Signing Schwarber ... at what price? Apparently (for now) he is seeking a multi year deal in the $20MM per year range. Unless they move Hosmer (or Darvish or Myers) not going to happen.

Last season was good for Schwarber but prior to that he was just a bit better than an average hitter and a very poor defensive option (really a DH only).

He may be a good one year gamble as a DH ... but would not commit to a 3-4 year deal.

One year DH options will be out there ... think Nelson Cruz for less money.

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 9:14 am

Trade for Olson. Now that move appeals to me ... All-Star quality with 2 control years at about $12MM in 2022. Padres need a companion move to open up that $12 payroll space.

Oakland is probably more focused on reducing payroll and getting prospects (like Baltimore) ... so what is the demand (considering NYY and others are in the bidding depending on where Freddie Freeman lands) ... will not be second tier prospects for his quality even if only for 2 years. Probably not Campusano since their #1 prospect is a catcher (not quite ML ready) but ranking higher than Campusano for the future.

Padres probably would have to have the #1 piece as one of Weathers - Gore - Hassell ... left out Abrams since think he will be a key in the next few years either in the INF / OF for the success of the Padres. Then fill with a couple of next tier prospects.

Side: in terms of trade value (not potential) ... Lawson has none considering he was DFA and cleared waivers. Morejon probably has a bit more (but not much) coming off TJ surgery. They have more value as prospects for the Padres than what they could get from another team. Both will have to actually produce over a season in the minors before the create some trade value.