Forum
Forum Navigation
Off Season Moves and discussion
#261 · December 2, 2021, 4:40 pm
There are two phases of Rule 5.
ML Phase (which has been delayed) … where a team can take any minor league player eligible for a fee and must keep them on the 26 man roster next season or offer them back and half price. So if Ornelas is on the AAA roster he can be selected in the ML phase.
MiL Phase (which will happen during the freeze) … where a team can take any minor league player eligible from the rosters below AAA for a very low fee and does not have to return that player. Basically select and keep. So Ornelas is on the AAA roster he cannot be selected in the MiL phase BUT if he was on the AA or lower roster he could be selected.
To that end most teams want to make it more difficult for other teams to select some players and procedurally put them on a AAA roster (there is a roster limit) even though in 2022 they can be assigned to lower levels.
Padres have a few players … that most likely will be manipulated in that manner.
======
Side: Although everything I have seen has indicated Valenzuela is Rule 5 eligible … so was a bit surprised he was not protected (catcher with defense and some hitting ability are prizes) even if only in A ball. Then I looked at Roster Resource recently and they have him Rule 5 eligible NEXT YEAR. They are not often wrong (but are sometimes). Just don’t know.
#262 · December 2, 2021, 4:59 pm
Did a check on the current status of the Padres projected payroll in Roster Resource … includes the eventual signing of Martinez ($7MM) but has no amount for Suarez (early guess was near $7MM).
Payroll will be about $200MM if Suarez is included but more of a benchmark is that for Luxuary Tax purposes it will be around $215MM.
So, Padres in the short run have to assess what the new penalty threshold is for the luxury tax (union wants $240 and the owners $220 or less) and what will be the penalty for exceeding … maybe be more than money and go to loss of draft picks.
=====
Guessing Preller will be working overtime during the lockout to try to form deals with other GM. Ideally move payroll … preserve prospects … add a low cost bat. However, if he can get a low cost quality bat for low cost Padres … that would work.
Padres have 27 arms on the 40 man … pitching is in demand and carries a high value so that would seem the most productive asset to move since based on the contract status of most … they all don’t fit on the 26 man and cannot be sent to the minors. Might need to wait until some of the “injured” show they are healthy in ST … thinking Paddack and Lamet primarily but there is also an over stock of RP.
#263 · December 2, 2021, 6:05 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on December 2, 2021, 4:03 pmNot sure how the Rule 5 minor league phase works. From what you said, if, for example, they put Valenzuela, Ornelas, E Ruiz and A Ruiz on the AAA roster they will all be protected from Rule 5? Appreciate educating me on this.
Yes, I believe (and please correct me if I'm wrong) is that you go to lower level eligibles to place in a higher level. So you can nab an A player and place him in AAA.
#264 · December 3, 2021, 6:53 am
So this should be a very stagnant winter in baseball, so if we want to talk baseball, its going to be a lot of what ifs?
Right before the lockout, it was reported by MLBTR, that SD was very strongly pursuing Castellanos. Apparently both Castellanos and Schwarber are looking for around $20M per season AAV, with Castellanos seeking 7-8 years and Schwarber seems OK with 3 years.
My question is, at roughly $20M per year, would you chose Castellanos or Schwarber?
My preference would be Schwaber, as I feel SD is very RHH heavy, especially where power is concerned. Thoughts??
#265 · December 3, 2021, 7:10 am
Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2021, 6:53 amSo this should be a very stagnant winter in baseball, so if we want to talk baseball, its going to be a lot of what ifs?
Right before the lockout, it was reported by MLBTR, that SD was very strongly pursuing Castellanos. Apparently both Castellanos and Schwarber are looking for around $20M per season AAV, with Castellanos seeking 7-8 years and Schwarber seems OK with 3 years.
My question is, at roughly $20M per year, would you chose Castellanos or Schwarber?
My preference would be Schwaber, as I feel SD is very RHH heavy, especially where power is concerned. Thoughts??
Castellanos is a very risky sign for that long. Not only do we lose a draft pick but the latter half of the contract could be a dud. Bat speed will eventually slow down. The bet on the contract is when.
#266 · December 3, 2021, 7:28 am
That's a tough one.
On one hand I'd prefer Castellanos but all those years is risky business and he put up a majority of his numbers in a bandbox.
I've never been a Schwarber fan but it's hard to aRgue with his production the last couple years.
Then again he hit like 9 home runs in 2 weeks....if it takes a streak like that to put up those numbers it may not be reproduceable?
Lastly...it's not my money.So gotta trust AJ and Ownership to do what they feel is best.
If we were to get one of them I'd be fine either way I guess.
How's that for committing to an answer?
#267 · December 3, 2021, 7:44 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 3, 2021, 7:28 amThat's a tough one.
On one hand I'd prefer Castellanos but all those years is risky business and he put up a majority of his numbers in a bandbox.
I've never been a Schwarber fan but it's hard to ague with his production the last couple years.
Then again he hit like 9 home runs in 2 weeks....if it takes a streak like that to put up those numbers it may not be reproduceable?
Lastly...it's not my money.So gotta trust AJ and Ownership to do what they feel is best.
If we were to get one of them I'd be fine either way I guess.
How's that for committing to an answer?
Way to waffle Mr. P!! 🙂
MrPadre19 has reacted to this post.
MrPadre19
#268 · December 3, 2021, 8:18 am
The years are just too much commitment for Castellanos for that price and realistically limited to a DH now ... and clearly down the road. The years on Schwarber may also deter me if he is at the $20MM AAV level and he too is a DH only type with an up and down past ... not sure he is an everyday player ... so $20MM is high.
Do they drop a level and consider shorter deals / lower AAV for:
- Jorge Soler
- Kyle Seager
- Eddie Rosario
- Nelson Cruz
All may be in the $10-12MM range on 1 - 3 year deals and none have a qualifying offer ... so no loss of a draft pick. All likely are DH types on the Padres.
Also, still a chance on Suzuki if his signing window is extended ... $10MM range ... maybe 3-5 years.
Guessing the Padres stay away from any FA saddled with a QO.
#269 · December 3, 2021, 9:11 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2021, 8:18 amThe years are just too much commitment for Castellanos for that price and realistically limited to a DH now ... and clearly down the road. The years on Schwarber may also deter me if he is at the $20MM AAV level and he too is a DH only type with an up and down past ... not sure he is an everyday player ... so $20MM is high.
Do they drop a level and consider shorter deals / lower AAV for:
- Jorge Soler
- Kyle Seager
- Eddie Rosario
- Nelson Cruz
All may be in the $10-12MM range on 1 - 3 year deals and none have a qualifying offer ... so no loss of a draft pick. All likely are DH types on the Padres.
Also, still a chance on Suzuki if his signing window is extended ... $10MM range ... maybe 3-5 years.
Guessing the Padres stay away from any FA saddled with a QO.
In that fashion of signing, I would think that Joc Pederson would also be a good option to look at, probably has better defensive skills that the ones that you have mentioned, and now is a two time World Series champion. So some definite winning playoff experience as well.
#270 · December 3, 2021, 10:29 am
Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2021, 9:11 amQuote from fenn68 on December 3, 2021, 8:18 amThe years are just too much commitment for Castellanos for that price and realistically limited to a DH now ... and clearly down the road. The years on Schwarber may also deter me if he is at the $20MM AAV level and he too is a DH only type with an up and down past ... not sure he is an everyday player ... so $20MM is high.
Do they drop a level and consider shorter deals / lower AAV for:
- Jorge Soler
- Kyle Seager
- Eddie Rosario
- Nelson Cruz
All may be in the $10-12MM range on 1 - 3 year deals and none have a qualifying offer ... so no loss of a draft pick. All likely are DH types on the Padres.
Also, still a chance on Suzuki if his signing window is extended ... $10MM range ... maybe 3-5 years.
Guessing the Padres stay away from any FA saddled with a QO.
In that fashion of signing, I would think that Joc Pederson would also be a good option to look at, probably has better defensive skills that the ones that you have mentioned, and now is a two time World Series champion. So some definite winning playoff experience as well.
Could be … not sure his price tag … he turned down his side of the mutual option with Atlanta for 2022 which was set at $10MM.
His LHH might be a good balance with Alfaro as a RHH.