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#801 · May 8, 2019, 11:44 am
Quote from David Nevin on May 8, 2019, 10:41 amThe video of Javy Guerra pitching looks pretty promising.
What you don't see is that he already has the "hitting like a major league pitcher" part down.
LOL! In all seriousness, though. He is a pretty interesting asset as an MLB caliber defensive SS / LHRP throwing gas.
You normally hold onto every guy on your 40 (46-7?) man roster as long as humanly possible, because you never want to lose a guy and then someone goes on the 60-day IL a day later & you could have held on to him. But I'm wondering if Guerra is the exception to that rule. Pads are clearly going to turn over bottom 20-25% of roster into 2020 with all the 60-day guys. And Guerra is in his last option year, so it's pretty hard to envision him sticking around unless he's just an overnight success/phenom on the mound.
My thought is that if he's not DFA before he's assigned to a full season team; that if he shows ANYthing as a RP, it really increases the chance a team claims him later in the season when we have to DFA someone vs. now when he's a failed SS prospect conversion project who hasn't pitched an inning yet? Better chance of being outrighted now vs. later?
#802 · May 8, 2019, 1:16 pm
The Guerra strategy could be complicated .... depend a lot on how much the Padres value his future in the pen. Then add in the probability that a number of other organizations are aware of the conversion project and may have seen his work in XST (they all have talent evaluators lurking in AZ).
Would not surprise me that a team with a 40 man lacking upside at the bottom end would claim Guerra off waivers knowing they would then have the rest of the season to evaluate him in the minors ... then potentially AZ Fall League and winter ball plus ST and then they could try to get him through waivers at the end of ST when other teams are setting their 40 man rosters.
Not sure who (and when) bodies start coming off the 60 day ... Diaz on track for the end of the month but not heard of the others even scheduled for their rehabs so maybe a couple more months. On the flip side, not sure if Loup or Cordero are candidates to go to the 60 day when needed for a roster spot.
Then add the potential for DFA of Pirela as the first move for roster space following that with the unknown of clearing space in July via some housecleaning trades if the Padres are not in contention.
A lot of IF this THEN that going on.
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Even if it is a small risk of losing Guerra if they DFA him first ... might want to delay that as long as possible so the Padres can see what they have potentially. IF he is lights out ... hold tight on the 40 man and work the AZ Fall / ST route in further evaluation but if just "interesting" but not compelling enough to believe he will make a 40 man in 2020 then:
a. DFA Guerra in November as the rosters are getting set for the Rule 5 ... all the other teams are doing the same and a bit more difficult to justify the claim gamble over their own prospects. Does expose him to a Rule 5 section but if a team passed on the claim.
b. carry Guerra to the end of ST ... since he is out of options a team claiming him at that point would have to keep him on the 26 man and if he is not too compelling ... another difficult claim to justify.
Not sure a major factor but I think he becomes a minor league FA if DFA after this year (although should be an easy resign by the Padres).
#803 · May 8, 2019, 1:49 pm
Beginning to start the "graduations" off the MLBPipeline Top 30 for the Padres:
#4 Mejia is now off the list
and, as bit of a surprise,
Margevicius was added at #17 (rated a 45) ... he should be off in about a week as he and Paddack cross the 45 day active ML roster threshold. Then add 10 days (IL is not counted) until Tatis graduates.
Should see the next 3 drop in soon.
#804 · May 8, 2019, 3:36 pm
A side thought on keeping Guerra on the 40 man and preserving any other "hot" RP this winter .... some question as to the RP for the Padres in 2020 and going forward.
Stammen is a FA (will be 36 next season) ... if they want him back maybe a minor league deal over the winter. Warren and Loup are under contract but not impressing. The next pack is on the margin: Maton; Wisler; Stock; Reyes; Perdomo; Wieck. AAA RP (non-roster) not impressive. Castillo / Diaz may or may not recover from injury (TBD).
So, looking as though Yates (final year before FA), Wingenter, Erlin (final year before FA) are the safest bets the a free for all for the other 5 RP slots.
IF Guerra's stuff is legit ... progressing to the ML roster from A+ may not be that significant a leap for a RP (given the competition) .... remember Margevicius last year at this time was in FW and not promoted to LE until July and Reyes was bouncing between A+ and AA.
#805 · May 11, 2019, 11:38 pm
Anybody knows why L. Allen only pitched one inning with El Paso tonight? Injury? Call UP?
#806 · May 12, 2019, 5:12 am
Struck on the arm by a linedrive.
Bruised.
Not sure if very serious or which arm.
#807 · May 13, 2019, 8:29 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on May 8, 2019, 11:44 amQuote from David Nevin on May 8, 2019, 10:41 amThe video of Javy Guerra pitching looks pretty promising.
What you don't see is that he already has the "hitting like a major league pitcher" part down.
LOL! In all seriousness, though. He is a pretty interesting asset as an MLB caliber defensive SS / LHRP throwing gas.
You normally hold onto every guy on your 40 (46-7?) man roster as long as humanly possible, because you never want to lose a guy and then someone goes on the 60-day IL a day later & you could have held on to him. But I'm wondering if Guerra is the exception to that rule. Pads are clearly going to turn over bottom 20-25% of roster into 2020 with all the 60-day guys. And Guerra is in his last option year, so it's pretty hard to envision him sticking around unless he's just an overnight success/phenom on the mound.
My thought is that if he's not DFA before he's assigned to a full season team; that if he shows ANYthing as a RP, it really increases the chance a team claims him later in the season when we have to DFA someone vs. now when he's a failed SS prospect conversion project who hasn't pitched an inning yet? Better chance of being outrighted now vs. later?
If they were going to DFA Guerra to try to buy more time, it would have been the morning he threw his first bullpen session in Peoria. People outside the organization were already discussing it by the time I published the first public report on it. But I think it was promising enough that morning, they decided they didn't want to risk that some team would be dumb enough to think they could turn him into a viable big league hitter.
If he were to be placed on waivers today, there is a zero percent chance he'd stay in the org.
#808 · May 14, 2019, 1:37 pm
What's in a number?
Buddy Reed changes his uniform number from 1 to 7...immediately goes 4-4 with a homer on the first pitch he sees.
#809 · May 14, 2019, 6:04 pm
Quote from David Nevin on May 14, 2019, 1:37 pmWhat's in a number?
Buddy Reed changes his uniform number from 1 to 7...immediately goes 4-4 with a homer on the first pitch he sees.
The number he needs to change is .280. That's his OBP.
#810 · May 14, 2019, 6:32 pm
Yep.
4 for 4 is a good start