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#3171 · September 23, 2024, 11:10 am
Even though Michael King and his wife are an East Coast couple, I believe we have a really good chance to re-sign/extend his contract and avoid him hitting free-agency. The decision to set up his King of the Hill Foundation in San Diego, his relationship with Niebla, the respect he has for his current teammates/Shildt and the fact King & wife seem to love living in San Diego all point to a better than 50% chance for keeping him here.
Since we likely cannot afford Cease in Free Agency and Suarez is sure to opt out (if one or both are not traded earlier) after the 2025 season, having King in hand going into 2025 will be a big plus for the stability of the staff and money will be available. King will turn 30 in the 2025 season and probably scheduled to get around 5M in his last year of arbitration. If we can backload the contract for higher salaries after 2025, we should be able to land him after 2025 arbitration on a 4 year deal for around 60M (thinking 11, 15, 17, 17) starting with 2026 and ending in 2029. Musgrove's contract is up in 2027, while Darvish's ends in 2028, although I don't think Yu will pitch to the length of his contract; if we sign Sasaki in January 2025, I think Yu will pitch no more than 2 years after that signing. Yu gave back over 4M this year when he didn't have to so I think he is not hurting financially plus I believe he wants to leave a legacy that doesn't show him failing at the end of his career. Musgrove will want to finish his career here and will give the Padres another team-friendly contract. Need to keep the window of opportunity open for the playoffs in 2025 and, hopefully, beyond.
#3172 · September 23, 2024, 11:49 am
Quote from Randy Manese on September 23, 2024, 11:10 amEven though Michael King and his wife are an East Coast couple, I believe we have a really good chance to re-sign/extend his contract and avoid him hitting free-agency. The decision to set up his King of the Hill Foundation in San Diego, his relationship with Niebla, the respect he has for his current teammates/Shildt and the fact King & wife seem to love living in San Diego all point to a better than 50% chance for keeping him here.
Since we likely cannot afford Cease in Free Agency and Suarez is sure to opt out (if one or both are not traded earlier) after the 2025 season, having King in hand going into 2025 will be a big plus for the stability of the staff and money will be available. King will turn 30 in the 2025 season and probably scheduled to get around 5M in his last year of arbitration. If we can backload the contract for higher salaries after 2025, we should be able to land him after 2025 arbitration on a 4 year deal for around 60M (thinking 11, 15, 17, 17) starting with 2026 and ending in 2029. Musgrove's contract is up in 2027, while Darvish's ends in 2028, although I don't think Yu will pitch to the length of his contract; if we sign Sasaki in January 2025, I think Yu will pitch no more than 2 years after that signing. Yu gave back over 4M this year when he didn't have to so I think he is not hurting financially plus I believe he wants to leave a legacy that doesn't show him failing at the end of his career. Musgrove will want to finish his career here and will give the Padres another team-friendly contract. Need to keep the window of opportunity open for the playoffs in 2025 and, hopefully, beyond.
First, agree that there is a good chance of signing King after the 2025 season ... and of the FA to be after 2025 he would be my first choice. Quality pitcher ... quality person. Cease is likely gone (Boras agent ... big money rep) ... Suarez will opt out and Padres should have adequate replacements, then Arraez is a maybe (depending on the money). Sasaki would be a big plus since he would come in at a league minimum AAV. Pitching will be a need in 2026.
However, if 2025 is anything like his 2024 ... think his FA money will be greater than a $15MM AAV / 4 years ... maybe closer to $18-20MM AAV. Padres should be well under the CBT in 2026 to easily handle that. Actually, baring any surprising FA signing ... a decent chance the could also fit Arraez under the 2026 CBT unless he has an unrealistic demand (pretty sure that will be a debate point around that time).
Padres don't really have any blue chip prospects to fill out a rotation in 2026 or even create a decent replacement of Arraez. So, Padres may do some strategic roster management to attempt to keep King and Arraez.
#3173 · September 25, 2024, 9:19 am
#3174 · September 25, 2024, 11:04 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 25, 2024, 9:19 am
First four make sense … the second four are a bit of unknowns as prospects.
Wonder if sending Mosser to the AFL is a potential pre-cursor to being added to the 40 man and an audition for the #5 SP slot in 2025 … OR … a showcase to make him a useful trade chip. He has had a “nice” run in the system of the years but nothing to scream ML prospect and is now 28. Maybe a attempt to convert him to a RP?
#3175 · September 25, 2024, 11:21 am
Mosser will be a free agent in November so it truly is an audition to continue in the system or possibly hook on with another team based on how he does. German, Gustin and Morgan are in the developing RP class, which show flashes of potential but not enough consistency to make the jumps that Bradgley Rodriguez or Francis Pena did this year; of these three Morgan is the most advanced. If Paplham and Smeltz can come back from injury, these are the guys to watch behind Rodriguez and Pena.
#3176 · October 5, 2024, 9:55 am
Interesting note here. Mosser is working on incorporating a knuckleball.
#3177 · October 12, 2024, 7:44 pm
So far all Padres pitchers assigned to the AFL are getting hit very hard. Salas has been up and down while De Vries is finding playing time hard to come by with Emerson doing so well at ss; also, unsure if De Vries is truly all the way back from his second shoulder injury even though it is the other shoulder this time. Hopefully, things will turn around before the end of the month!
#3178 · October 17, 2024, 6:31 pm
Since my last post here , Salas has caught fire and appears to going back to his aggressive approach at the plate he showed in his first year as a pro. After today's game, hitting .333 with a 964 OPS; he's among the leaders in RBI and doubles.
Sanabria holding his own but deVries might be just a little overmatched, which is probably expected for this level of talent and experience.
Padres pitchers continue to struggle but most are not highly ranked at this time (with possibly the exception of Bergert, who did a lot better today.0
#3179 · October 19, 2024, 7:40 am
The international signing period starts in about 3 months … Sasaki is the clearly the prize since he can step right into the ML at a bargain price … that is IF he makes himself available and if he opts for the Padres (a ton of teams are targeting him).
IF Padres are not in the mix there are a few other interesting options per MLBPipeline:
#4 on their list is 16 year old Andrew Salas, switch hitting OF/SS, who they rate 65 HIT and 65 FIELDING … yes, he is Ethan Salas’ younger brother. Given the projection and considering the success the Padres have with Ethan Salas … might he be the prime international target if Sasaki is off the board (not likely enough pool money for both).
The other that sort of fits the Padres is 17 year old Elian Pena (rated #2) … a LHH SS … projected 65 HIT …
We know how much Preller likes SS … both projected top hitters in the mix … and in the past two periods Preller has gone all in on the top player available. Note the #1 (SS) and #3 (OF) are not quite the same level of HIT.
I would think given how the Padres handled Merrill, Ethan Salas and DeVries … accelerating their development to get to the ML quickly … that would be an “extra” factor in signing with the Padres (at maybe a slightly less bonus … wishful thinking).
Might help if Preller made some minor trades this winter to add some bonus pool money.
#3180 · October 19, 2024, 9:58 am
In deference to the hot start of Mariner #1 prospect Colt Emerson, Peoria is playing De Vries at 2b with Emerson handling ss on almost a daily basis, although De Vries will get some time at ss when Emerson sits. De Vries is having a little trouble adjusting to 2b but is too much of an athlete to let it bother him. Besides, I think Padres have him in the AFL primarily for the exposure against tougher competition and for him to observe what he needs to do to take it to the next level; I don't think they are too worried about what stats he puts up.
My hope is that after a winter of full healing of both shoulders and added pitch recognition and maturity, he's going to show the Fort Wayne fans a shortstop that belongs in the same category, offensively and defensively, as Merrill and Tatis, Jr. I'm thinking hit tool/power potential in the 55-60 range for both; not quite as good as the other two but tools that would be great for an everyday middle infielder. He also can run and has the hands and feet of a point guard, which he played in high school, to be a solid defender. Can't wait to see him perform in 2025.