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Quote from fenn68 on July 6, 2026, 1:22 pm

How far out of playoff contention should they be to go with option 1 at the end of the month? Do they clean the house of prospects on a 100 to 1 shot at making the playoffs and a 1000 to one shot of a World Series appearance?

 

While I always want the Padres to win, and win it all. I just dont think this is the season. Too many injuries and underperformance from the big buys. So under my breath I am really hoping they really tank it in July and prevent Preller from being Preller.

I think there are some pieces that would appeal to other teams such as Estrella, Morejon, King and a couple of others, and we could get some pieces back. Then let the new owners decide after the new CBA how and how quickly they want to reload for the next playoff run. Let prospects develop while wasting the last couple of prime years of Machado and Bogaerts? Or add some additional payroll and ride the tide for the next two or three years.

Interesting thing with Pivetta ... since this is an elbow injury ... if he is on the IL for a certain number of days (think enough to get to SEP) his player option ($14MM) converts to a team option flipping the decision to the Padres.

If so, Padres have to look at the future of their team and they may not want to bet $14MM on Pivetta recovering to be the pitcher he was in 2025 plus puts back in play his player option for 2028. All that while considering the lockout costing some of 2027. I guess a lot depends on their evaluation of his elbow and future of an arm in its 30s.

Cannot rule out declining the option and then re-signing him on a more team friendly deal (assuming he can't find some other team to bid more).

Personally worried about 2027 potentially having NO quality SP. Almost impossible to assemble a competitive team ... adding FIVE plus ML pitchers is near impossible given the FA crop and zip coming in the system. Frankly adding one or two still falls woefully short and remember losing Morejon and Adam to FA.

I look at the Padres' prospects in two different ways.

  1. as prospects for the Padres,  the Padres see more potential than those who make the top 30 list BUT sitting a A ball and lower a lot of risk on development / injury before impacting the ML
  2. as prospects for trades, others may like the same prospects BUT will not give up any impact talent to take on those long term risks. Sure, might get a decent "rental" but that is about it.

Unless you really think the Padres can make and win in the playoffs now ... hard to justify giving the future upside for a big short term gamble. Arguably if they are really good prospects they will be "better" prospects next summer or the following summer and if they need them as trade chips they would get more in return.

A lot of tough calls here.

Joniel Hernandez, SS signed out of Cuba this year as one of the top international FA is down in the DSL ... and tearing it up. Only 17 so we could have a plus prospect in ACL/LE next season ... before playing was set as the #15 Padre prospect. Signed for $1.4MM.

 

LynchMob has reacted to this post.
LynchMob

I've tracked the Padres top 50 or so hitters and pitchers for many years to get a feel for what may be in the pipeline myself, irrespective of the the hype.  Primarily with the help of FanGraphs, there are many indicators which help ascertain whether a player has a legitimate chance to make it to the majors or just flame out before getting there.  In all honesty, there are very few, maybe less than 1% of all minor leaguers who subsequently have significant major league careers.  Yes, we've traded away several good ones but usually got back in return players who helped us get into the playoffs.

As excited as I am about Padres minor league players doing well, my preference is to trade them since most will never reach the big leagues.  For this reason, don't see any minor league player as untouchable, even Salas, if the return solidifies the chances that we reach and are successful in the playoffs - hopefully, we get more than rentals in return, but even many of the rentals we have traded for were important in helping the Padres get where they wanted to go.  I'd much have an established major league player now then hope to get a minor league player to the majors in 2-4 more years and that he will be at least as successful.  Review many of the multi-player trades (outside of the Soto trade) Preller has made and you'll find most of the players traded are still in the minors, released or ended up injured.  Baseball is a hard game - gamble on the surest thing you can for the short run.

By the way, Joniel Hernandez is doing very well with the bat but doesn't look like he can stick at shortstop.  If not traded, may move to the OF or 2b.

 

Speaking of prospects being traded, our old farm hand Robert Hassell III has been traded from WAS to PITT for a player to be named later.

Like Randy said, you just never know how a prospect will develop.

Padres had 3 players on the Dominican Summer League National League all-star squad.  Catcher Jeanfranco Fernandez from the Padres Brown team and ss Joniel Hernandez and RP Albieris Polanco from the Padres Gold team.  Padres Gold team has a very good record this year but not as strong as last year because of lack of pitching talent/depth.

ACL season ends today and Padres team just missed out by losing last night, despite a great pitching performance by Adler Cecil.  Nonetheless, much better showing than last year and there are a couple of players on that team, besides the rehabbing ones, that are worth following for at least another year or two.  Jesmaylin Arias and Eddson Martinez, both left handing hitting OFs, have shown well this year while the aforementioned Cecil and RP Florangel Vasquez have flashed potential but have been inconsistent. Many pitchers are on the mend in the ACL so we will see what the winter brings for those prospects.

brent wolff has reacted to this post.
brent wolff

Ryan Wideman with his third 3 hit game in a row at Ft Wayne and is 13 for his last 23.

.316/.381/.459/.840 now for the season

With FIFTY SEVEN steals on the year!

If you've been here for any amount of time you know he's the very type of player I prefer.

Athletic with speed......the kind of player we've lacked at the top of our lineup for a long time.

A guy like that lets you move Tatis down to knock in more runs.

Can't wait to see what he does next year in AA and eventually AAA or in SD.

 

 

 

 

lafnboy13 has reacted to this post.
lafnboy13

If he can keep his contact rate in the mid-70's and not get ground-ball happy, he could have a real chance with his speed and good defensive range.  Don't get too attached to him, however, as he's the kind of long-range prospect other teams will gamble on to seal a trade deal for some decent starting pitching (hopefully not a rental).

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