Quote from fenn68 on October 19, 2024, 10:48 am

Sure looks as though the Padres are putting DeVries in the same progression pattern as Tatis, Merrill, and Salas.

Tatis: Rookie/SS -> A, AA -> AA (88 games, injured) -> MLB in 4th season

Merrill: Rookie -> Rookie / A -> A+ / AA (46 games) -> MLB in 4th season

Salas: A -> A+ -> projected to AA …. ? 2026 his 4th season to MLB

DeVries: A -> projected to A+ -> projected to AA -> ? 2027 his 4th season to MLB

Hopefully Salas and DeVries have the same impact on the ML as Tatis and Merrill.

Quote from fenn68 on October 19, 2024, 10:53 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 19, 2024, 10:22 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 19, 2024, 7:40 am

The international signing period starts in about 3 months … Sasaki is the clearly the prize since he can step right into the ML at a bargain price … that is IF he makes himself available and if he opts for the Padres (a ton of teams are targeting him).

IF Padres are not in the mix there are a few other interesting options per MLBPipeline:

#4 on their list is 16 year old Andrew Salas, switch hitting OF/SS, who they rate 65 HIT and 65 FIELDING … yes, he is Ethan Salas’ younger brother. Given the projection and considering the success the Padres have with Ethan Salas … might he be the prime international target if Sasaki is off the board (not likely enough pool money for both).

The other that sort of fits the Padres is 17 year old Elian Pena (rated #2) … a LHH SS … projected 65 HIT …

We know how much Preller likes SS … both projected top hitters in the mix … and in the past two periods Preller has gone all in on the top player available. Note the #1 (SS) and #3 (OF) are not quite the same level of HIT.

I would think given how the Padres handled Merrill, Ethan Salas and DeVries … accelerating their development to get to the ML quickly … that would be an “extra” factor in signing with the Padres (at maybe a slightly less bonus … wishful thinking).

Might help if Preller made some minor trades this winter to add some bonus pool money.

Just about all of the top guys already have deals in place. Andrew Salas is headed to the Marlins. Elian Pena is going to the Mets. From what I remember from an article I read a while back the Padres weren't expected to land anyone at the very top of the class this year. They were linked to a few players in the top 50 though. I think it was 2 SS's and a lefty, but I don't remember the names anymore.

Pity … unless the pool money gets Sasaki. Do have a lot of faith in the international scouting folks so expect those “others” have legit upside.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 25, 2024, 9:27 am

Outside of Sasaki, haven't read much about top international prospects signing with the Padres in either 2025 or 2026.  Lot of buzz about 2027 potential signee Cesar Altagracia, who already is 6-2 at 14 or 15 years of age and supposedly headed to the Padres.  Altagracia is a LH shortstop with a lot of pop already in his bat for someone so young.  There is talk he could be eligible for the 2026 signing period but since there is an age signing restriction, I have to go with 2027 and hope the new 2026 CBA doesn't interfere with the Padres signing him.

Currently, the pairing of Salas with De Vries in the AFL seem to be helping both of them acclimate and mature into their tools.  Salas showing that a AA assignment is not beyond his talent, while De Vries looks to tear up the Midwest League if the weather doesn't adversely affect him early in the season.  Both are looking very good.

Quote from fenn68 on October 25, 2024, 9:38 am

Quote from Randy Manese on October 25, 2024, 9:27 am

Outside of Sasaki, haven't read much about top international prospects signing with the Padres in either 2025 or 2026.  Lot of buzz about 2027 potential signee Cesar Altagracia, who already is 6-2 at 14 or 15 years of age and supposedly headed to the Padres.  Altagracia is a LH shortstop with a lot of pop already in his bat for someone so young.  There is talk he could be eligible for the 2026 signing period but since there is an age signing restriction, I have to go with 2027 and hope the new 2026 CBA doesn't interfere with the Padres signing him.

Currently, the pairing of Salas with De Vries in the AFL seem to be helping both of them acclimate and mature into their tools.  Salas showing that a AA assignment is not beyond his talent, while De Vries looks to tear up the Midwest League if the weather doesn't adversely affect him early in the season.  Both are looking very good.

I guess could read the lack of buzz on international signing prospects in three ways:

1. They are keeping their powder dry for a full assault on signing Sasaki ... which would take basically the full 2025 pool ... and don't want to burn bridges with the Latin American handers by committing to their clients, or
2. After going big for Salas and DeVries, they want to go for a more complete basket of prospects in the next signing period, or
3. Maybe they don't evaluate the top prospects as highly and not worth the premium price

I don't think this is a money issue ... they always spend the allocation and likely have that budgeted as part of their long term plan ... we are only talking about $6MM+/-.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 31, 2024, 8:21 am

Padres re-signed Omar Cruz to a minor league contract along with a couple of other RPs.  Cruz likely got an invite to spring training and could have a legitimate shot at to be added to the 40 man should one or more of their LH RPs be involved in trades, opt out or moved to the rotation.  Cruz performed very well with SA and early at EP until he got a little arm fatigue near the end of the season.  Rumor has it that he was on the verge of being called up when that happened.  Baseball America recently rated Cruz as having one of the best change-ups in the minors along with promising RHP RP Bradgley Rodriguez.

Rodriguez pitched at 3 levels in the minors in 2024 and if he can stay healthy and get just a little more consistent with his command, may be in San Diego bullpen sooner than later.

Quote from fenn68 on October 31, 2024, 8:48 am

Think Cruz is Rule 5 eligible (Rodriguez is not) … so expect him to be added to the 40 man in Nov.

With Matsui - Morejon - Peralta - Cosgrove as the LHRP there is a good chance Cruz will get his shot in 2025. Don’t know what we have going forward with Cosgrove (hot /cold) and Peralta does still have the opt-out potential. Cruz as a call-up sure but maybe gets a shot to start the season (injuries / ineffectiveness of the others or Morejon gets a shot at SP).

On the RH side … watching Pena (RP) and Baez (SP) as mid-season factors.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on November 2, 2024, 7:30 pm

Apparently one of the top prospects we were supposed to sign in 2027 is actually 5 years old than they thought he was.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42157614/sources-mlb-finds-padres-international-prospect-falsified-age

Quote from Randy Manese on November 2, 2024, 8:48 pm

I wondered why he seemed so big and strong for someone who was only 14.  So, unless the Padres were somehow in a conspiracy to sign Altagracia in 2027 knowing he was already 19, seemingly they could sign him in 2026 after the 1 year suspension.  Problem is he would already be 20 years old and his ceiling is likely not as high as they thought it might be.  I seriously doubt that the Padres knew about the age discrepancy because they could have signed him in 2025 provided that they hadn't set aside all their money for signing Sasaki (I'm still holding out hope that this will happen).

Quote from fenn68 on November 3, 2024, 5:55 am

Quote from Randy Manese on November 2, 2024, 8:48 pm

I wondered why he seemed so big and strong for someone who was only 14.  So, unless the Padres were somehow in a conspiracy to sign Altagracia in 2027 knowing he was already 19, seemingly they could sign him in 2026 after the 1 year suspension.  Problem is he would already be 20 years old and his ceiling is likely not as high as they thought it might be.  I seriously doubt that the Padres knew about the age discrepancy because they could have signed him in 2025 provided that they hadn't set aside all their money for signing Sasaki (I'm still holding out hope that this will happen).

Amazing. Doubt the Padres knew anything about the deception since it would seem very illogical to go with a $4MM commitment on someone in 2027 who would be 20/21 but as yet not developed enough to warrant a decent contract if he came out at an age appropriate time.

At least the Padres know now and can shift their 2027 signing targets … try to pry them away from other teams … before their “commitments” become too locked in plus more time to focus in later developing players (age 14-15).

I would think the $4MM is off the table given the age differential. However, wonder if (despite the deception) the Padres would still try to sign him after the suspension in 2026 … lower price. They did see potential. On the other hand, do they want a “prospect” who was part of this deception (good chance he knew he was 5 years older than the paperwork as he played in all those tournaments … so not an innocent).

Given the odds of any international signing actually make it to the ML with impact … I would not consider signing him.