Quote from dusty on September 15, 2024, 2:54 am

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Padres trade Cease after this season for some pitching prospects. A lot Less surprised if they win the WS and/or sign Sasaki. A full season of Cease will still bring a ton of value to a team especially considering what pitching cost at the deadline. I also wouldnt rule out a transition of Hoeing to starter.

Quote from fenn68 on September 15, 2024, 5:42 am

Quote from dusty on September 15, 2024, 2:54 am

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Padres trade Cease after this season for some pitching prospects. A lot Less surprised if they win the WS and/or sign Sasaki. A full season of Cease will still bring a ton of value to a team especially considering what pitching cost at the deadline. I also wouldnt rule out a transition of Hoeing to starter.

I at one point thought they might deal Cease over the winter (primarily due to CBT issues) but now with the high likelihood they make the playoffs (and hopefully a deep run) I think they try to bring back the basic squad for a second run in 2025 … better with full seasons of Machado (healthy), Tatis, Darvish, and Musgrove. Good chance to win it all in 2025 so not going to punt. Even better if they add Sasaki to a staff of Cease, King, Musgrove, and Darvish.

I see the more likely plan is to make the run for 2025 then put a QO on Cease, King, and Arraez … all will reject and all will sign big contracts getting the Padres three top draft picks in 2026. Alternatively, in 2026 the FA of Cease, King, Arraez, Suarez (likely), and the dropping of Hosmer’s contract … a lot of cap room and could see a push to re-sign King and Arraez while going back under the CBT. Sign King and retain 4 solid SP (need only one prospect to secure a #5 slot) … sign Arraez and retain the core offense.

With nothing impactful near term coming out of the system … I also seeing them making a big effort to sign some of the internal FA after 2024 … going over the CBT buy $10-20MM. Having reset this season … penalty would only be 20% of the overage (so less than $2MM). Probably focus on re-sign of Profar, Higashioka, and maybe Solano … others are more on the bubble.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on September 15, 2024, 6:06 am

This post seems like it is moving in the direction of the Padres 2025 season vice minor league discussion but I can see how they are intertwined.  The first thing we need to know is whether Padres' ownership will hold Preller to a budget that keeps them below the first level of the 2025 CBT (241M) or whether the performance of the team in the playoffs/World Series will motivate them to go beyond that marker.  With all the free agents and arbitration eligibles currently on the 40 man, it will be impossible to stay below the 241M mark if we try to bring everyone back, so got to know those parameters first.

With regard to Sasaki, reports go back and forth as to whether he has an out clause from his Chiba team after the current season.  Chiba really has no incentive to let Sasaki go before he is eligible to be posted other than putting Sasaki in a funk and maybe underperforming because of that like he has this year (also has had a reportedly minor arm injury or fatigue).  And even if Sasaki were available, would he choose San Diego over LA, SF, NY or any other city?  If available, a lot of pundits are saying he's a lock for LA, joining Ohtani and Yamamoto while others say he has close ties to Darvish.  Padres signing/not signing Sasaki on 15 January 2025 will shape a lot of what they do heading into the 2025 season.

Another point to consider is strategic team building given whatever the budget is.  My thinking is they will let all potential FA's file for free agency without giving any of them a qualifying offer.  It is unlikely we can compete for Scott and Kim in the open market but what kind of price do you put on career years from Profar and Higashioka given their age and the fact they tailed off in the latter part of this season?  Similarly, when does age catch up to Solano and David Peralta?  Martin Perez and Elias Diaz aren't likely to get 7 digit offers while guys like Patino and Wade will likely not be offered arbitration and join the FA pool.  What will Wandy Peralta will do - if he exercises his option we have more money to play with.  So, even without considering what the Padres have to potentially put up in arbitration to keep Arraez, Cease, King, Adam, Morejon and Campusano there are a lot of roster decisions to be made to stay within the 1st rung of the 2025 CBT.

It will be another exciting off-season for Preller and Padres fans and I'm sure there will be a couple of surprises as there usually are before Opening Day 2025.  Would you trade Cease or Suarez or Arraez?  Do you extend Merrill before the 2025 season or wait until next year?  Can Ornelas and Eguy be the next Peralta and Solano?  Who do the Padres have their eye on in trade/free agency that may be undervalued?  Time will tell and time is relentless.  Go Padres!

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 15, 2024, 8:11 am

I guess the “problem” is that for 2025 I really don’t see any top prospects in the system ready to support a playoff quality team as a starter. Yet, even without the FA to be the ML club is strong enough to be a contender but only maybe $7-8MM under the CBT, Money is always an issue … and for us a bit of an unknown.

Ownership will have to set the game plan before the winter meetings so that Preller can starting working the alternatives. Just hard to see the Padres pulling a MIAMI and sell off after a winning 2024 and tick off their fans.

Can Ornelas / Lockridge replace Profar (#1 LF in the NL and with near the top OBP / BA) … not likely.

Can Rosario replace Solano / Peralta in a DH role (both hitting above league OPS) … not likely.

Can Campusano / Sullivan (both poor defensive catchers) replace Higashioka’s defense (and actually offense) … not likely.

With no real impact coming from the minors to support the offense … have to address major holes in LF, DH, C … that is a lot.

I can see the pitching surviving with some juggling at the #5 SP and the pen could be still solid with some decent near term arms ready by mid-season. However, can’t see backfilling another SP (at a low cost) if they move either Cease or King.

IF Preller sees the likes of Reynolds, Kolek … maybe Pena, Rodriguez, Cruz, Bergert, or Baez providing sufficiently pitching support … maybe he tries to market some RP (with salaries) such as Matsui, Peralta (unless he opts out), and even Adam … long shot Suarez if they see a closer in the current mix. Clears some payroll for signing offense and maybe yields an offensive support piece for the bench.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on September 18, 2024, 9:42 pm

Lake Elsinore just couldn't get the bats going against Modesto tonight after doing well on offense the first 2 games.  A tough 2-1 loss and Modesto claims the California League championship.  The team should be strong again in 2025 even though Leodalis De Vries will be playing in Ft. Wayne; staff has done a good job of developing a lot of raw pitching talent that should show itself in next year's results.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 20, 2024, 11:16 pm

Calvin Mitchell is making a strong case to be added to the 40 man as El Paso closes out the season.  If the Padres can keep him from FA by signing him to a minor league contract and not put him on the 40 man, it would be a steal but he's going to get a lot of attention at only 26 years of age when the 2025 season starts so it's likely put him on or lose him.

Vasquez pitched another good game but unless someone gets injured I don't see how we are going to bring he, Waldron or any other pitchers in EP up for the remaining of the regular season.

Quote from fenn68 on September 21, 2024, 4:12 am

Quote from Randy Manese on September 20, 2024, 11:16 pm

Calvin Mitchell is making a strong case to be added to the 40 man as El Paso closes out the season.  If the Padres can keep him from FA by signing him to a minor league contract and not put him on the 40 man, it would be a steal but he's going to get a lot of attention at only 26 years of age when the 2025 season starts so it's likely put him on or lose him.

Vasquez pitched another good game but unless someone gets injured I don't see how we are going to bring he, Waldron or any other pitchers in EP up for the remaining of the regular season.

As always the 40 man roster construction will be interesting. Padres have a good number of players hitting FA and a number of marginal players who are out of minor league options that might be non-tendered / traded) for extra room (e.g. Sullivan, Gillespie, Rosario).

So the staring point should have room for the Padres to go a lot of ways.

In Mitchell’s case as an OF … assuming they re-sign Profar the OF with Profar - Merrill - Tatis will play most of the games backed up by some combo of Lockridge - Ornelas - Johnson … maybe boosted by the re-signing of Peralta (more useful on a contending team than Michell at this stage). Padres may want to use slots for INF and pitching … depending on the other minor leaguers that may be considered for the 40 man … should be a few pitchers but not much in the way of hitters.

Guessing that Ornelas (who was added to the 40 man) is ahead of Mitchell as the LHH OF back-up (either in the ML or the MiL) and Mitchell is the odd man out.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 23, 2024, 8:07 am

After bringing back the injured, I'm looking at 8-10 spots on the 40 man for adds with possibly more slots opening up after the the decision on non-tenders.  After further consideration, I only added one position player to the roster (Valenzuela) and 6 pitchers.   As usual, the Padres have a ton of free agents and Rule 5 eligibles from AAA down to the Hi A but most will be passed over and give the Padres a chance to re-sign them if deemed worthy.

Two of the added pitchers, Henry Baez and Jagger Haynes are probably at the top of their class as RH and LH SP pitching prospects, respectively; I also added Ryan Bergert after his great recovery from a horrendous start at SA - after being out a month, from his second start of the month in July to the end of the season he was very good.

The other 3 adds were LH RPs with possible upside that could help cope with the loss of Tanner Scott, the possible opt-out of Wandy Peralta, the lack of dominance of Matsui, the inconsistency of Cosgrove in 2024 and the injury history of Morejon.  These adds are Omar Cruz, Javien Sandridge and Ryan Och.  The first two are would-be free agents, while Och is a Rule 5 eligible.  Cruz had a good year until workload caught up with him and he spent some time on the IL at the end of the season.  Sandridge's stats aren't impressive but he has truly nasty stuff - kind of like Estrada prior to him joining the Padres.  Och came back from TJ surgery and was really dealing at the end of the season for SA.  Sometimes it just takes a little adjustment for pitchers to have them become dominant and the Padres are constantly on the lookout for special arms with special pitches even though the whole package is not there.

Quote from fenn68 on September 23, 2024, 8:42 am

Quote from Randy Manese on September 23, 2024, 8:07 am

After bringing back the injured, I'm looking at 8-10 spots on the 40 man for adds with possibly more slots opening up after the the decision on non-tenders.  After further consideration, I only added one position player to the roster (Valenzuela) and 6 pitchers.   As usual, the Padres have a ton of free agents and Rule 5 eligibles from AAA down to the Hi A but most will be passed over and give the Padres a chance to re-sign them if deemed worthy.

Two of the added pitchers, Henry Baez and Jagger Haynes are probably at the top of their class as RH and LH SP pitching prospects, respectively; I also added Ryan Bergert after his great recovery from a horrendous start at SA - after being out a month, from his second start of the month in July to the end of the season he was very good.

The other 3 adds were LH RPs with possible upside that could help cope with the loss of Tanner Scott, the possible opt-out of Wandy Peralta, the lack of dominance of Matsui, the inconsistency of Cosgrove in 2024 and the injury history of Morejon.  These adds are Omar Cruz, Javien Sandridge and Ryan Och.  The first two are would-be free agents, while Och is a Rule 5 eligible.  Cruz had a good year until workload caught up with him and he spent some time on the IL at the end of the season.  Sandridge's stats aren't impressive but he has truly nasty stuff - kind of like Estrada prior to him joining the Padres.  Och came back from TJ surgery and was really dealing at the end of the season for SA.  Sometimes it just takes a little adjustment for pitchers to have them become dominant and the Padres are constantly on the lookout for special arms with special pitches even though the whole package is not there.

We are pretty much on the same page here.

Was considering two others (really marginal though) ... AA RP Blanchard (L) and Castro (R) ... not as another add but maybe an option to Sandridge (who I also had more bubble type).

My one hedge comes from how the Padres viewing a 40 man roster to contend in 2025. IF they want to boost the 40 man with some more ML ready veteran types (FA/waivers) might they risk the Rule 5 potential losses in favor of the open roster slot. There is a strategic consideration of balancing the risk of a player getting selected (and kept) vs. needing to put the player on waivers during the year and potentially losing him with the selecting team not having to keep them on the active roster.

Timing is in play ... probably have to make the Rule 5 / minor league FA calls before finalizing the ML FA signings. Also, have to make those calls before maybe want to make a call on out of option players ... early non-tender or hold until ST (thinking Rosario, Gillespie, Sullivan).