Quote from fenn68 on September 2, 2024, 11:11 am

Quote from Randy Manese on September 2, 2024, 10:18 am

Looks like workload is catching up with Omar Cruz, Henry Baez, Isaiah Lowe and a few of the top RP in the organization.  Most have seen a slight drop of velocity and even a bit of loss of command, however, these 3 SP pitchers and a couple others at Fort Wayne (Haynes and Nett) bring a lot of potential to the 2025 season, although not all may remain as SP.  There are also a lot of intriguing arms in the organization with great stuff, but like Nett last year, do not have the command to be successful.  We'll find out who made the adjustments over the winter by organizational assignments in 2025.

Unfortunately, the cupboard is relatively bare in the position player side but Salas and DeVries are the real deal as future impact major league players.  Outside of Romeo Sanabria and Tyler Robertson, have got to see more production to see if any others in the organization warrant long looks as possible every day major leaguers.  King and Roberts may have a chance, as I like the work they are doing at Lake Elsinore.

Wonder if it is just by chance (best player available) or has the organization built a bias to getting as many upside arms as possible with the high picks.

Given the natural breakdown rate of pitchers ... volume of upside pitchers may be a strategy plus as we see in the ML quality pitching is tough to come by.

Tie that with forever deals with Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth combined with longish control of Merrill, Campusano ... maybe focusing on additional offense (e.g. blue chip type) is not a priority. Preller has been decent this year in adding low cost support players ... Higashioka, Solano, Peralta, Profar, Wade ... that could continue in support of Salas and DeVries creating the upside prospect support.

Looking at the current roster ... and thinking 3-4 years out ... pitching may be the biggest need with Cease, King, Perez, Scott, and Suarez all likely gone via FA (that 5 would cost a fortune to retain ... well beyond the Padres budget) and Musgrove / Darvish aging and heading towards the end of their deals.

IF the Padres decide to re-sign Kim and Profar (a lot of pressure to do so given the current season and no legit replacement for either) to multi-year contacts ... maybe not a lot of need for a major wave of offense adds out of the system.

Side: IF the prospect pitching develops ... potentially some "excess" veteran arms will be dealt to bolster the position players (or as we have seen pitching prospects for veterans).

 

Quote from Randy Manese on September 3, 2024, 9:23 pm

Lizarraga put on IL today, effectively ending his season.  He hadn't pitched since 8/17, when he probably threw his best game of the season after some clunkers earlier in August.  Did better this year in H/9 and K/9 while FIP/ERA remained consistent over these past 3 years at around 4.00.  For the first time in 3 years, he was better against RH hitters than LH hitters but have to be impressed that he essentially is holding his own while being at least 4 years younger than the average AA player.

Doesn't really have a dominant out pitch that would slot him at least a #4 starter, but if gains some strength and gets more separation between his FB and change-up, could be a decent long man if he maintains his command.  However, there are guys like Lizarraga who all of a sudden tweak their delivery or other aspects of their pitching and come out of nowhere to become a real prospect.  At present, better than an organizational player but has not yet flashed high ceiling potential.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 12, 2024, 4:14 pm

Eguy Rosario is playing SS for the first time this season tonight. Maybe he replaces McCoy on the bench with Xander playing SS?

Quote from fenn68 on September 12, 2024, 4:38 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 12, 2024, 4:14 pm

Eguy Rosario is playing SS for the first time this season tonight. Maybe he replaces McCoy on the bench with Xander playing SS?

Think it would take some injures for Rosario to be added. McCoy is obviously on the bubble but his defense at SS (as an emergency fill) is probably more useful than Rosario' bat.

If he is still in AZ working out ... I still see adding Nick Ahmed (bumping McCoy) a possibility ... he is a veteran with pressure experience ... still decent SS defense ... and hit around .230 is his limited work in the ML this season with LAD and SF. 10 years in AZ.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 12, 2024, 10:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 12, 2024, 4:38 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 12, 2024, 4:14 pm

Eguy Rosario is playing SS for the first time this season tonight. Maybe he replaces McCoy on the bench with Xander playing SS?

Think it would take some injures for Rosario to be added. McCoy is obviously on the bubble but his defense at SS (as an emergency fill) is probably more useful than Rosario' bat.

If he is still in AZ working out ... I still see adding Nick Ahmed (bumping McCoy) a possibility ... he is a veteran with pressure experience ... still decent SS defense ... and hit around .230 is his limited work in the ML this season with LAD and SF. 10 years in AZ.

I just feel like if they were going to add Ahmed they would have done it already. It's not like he's rehabbing. He was released from a major league roster and ended up with us. Maybe we were just the only ones to offer him a deal. I don't really know that he's much of an upgrade to McCoy at this point. With Xander playing SS having Wade and McCoy both on the roster feels like a waste. With Solano playing everyday Rosario might be able to take over his role as a bench bat and guy who plays against lefties. Cronenworth is still hitting under .200 against them. Barring injury Bogaerts looks like the everyday guy at SS as long as Kim is out. That doesn't leave McCoy with much of a role. I think Rosario could bring more to the table. I could be reading too much into it, but I don't think it's a coincidence that they got him work at SS today.

Quote from fenn68 on September 13, 2024, 3:02 am

Think the key is Kim's return (or not) ... he clearly is not ready but how long to they wait until they decide to upgrade from McCoy. It is the last bench slot behind Peralta, Wade, and probably Lockridge and at this stage of the season not targeted for much (if any) playing time.

To add Ahmed (non-roster) they have to remove someone ... may not be ready to do that if Kim is soon to return plus when the playoffs start one position player has to go (back to 13). As it stands IF Kim is activated, McCoy is likely optioned then TBD removed for the playoffs. Think Ahmed comes into play IF Kim is determined to be out of the picture for the playoffs. Even as a .230 hitter (as he was this year) ... he is better than McCoy plus he is a legit SS (Shildt like defense) while Rosario is not.

Rosario has not had a great offensive year in EP ... EP/PCL sub-.300 BA vs LHP is not compelling. Shildt (Preller) may be reluctant to at this stage start messing with Cronenworth by suddenly platooning him ... Shildt does like a "stable" line-up.

I guess considering all that ... McCoy may stay around and get left off the playoff roster even if Kim does not return.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 13, 2024, 8:54 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 13, 2024, 3:02 am

Think the key is Kim's return (or not) ... he clearly is not ready but how long to they wait until they decide to upgrade from McCoy. It is the last bench slot behind Peralta, Wade, and probably Lockridge and at this stage of the season not targeted for much (if any) playing time.

To add Ahmed (non-roster) they have to remove someone ... may not be ready to do that if Kim is soon to return plus when the playoffs start one position player has to go (back to 13). As it stands IF Kim is activated, McCoy is likely optioned then TBD removed for the playoffs. Think Ahmed comes into play IF Kim is determined to be out of the picture for the playoffs. Even as a .230 hitter (as he was this year) ... he is better than McCoy plus he is a legit SS (Shildt like defense) while Rosario is not.

Rosario has not had a great offensive year in EP ... EP/PCL sub-.300 BA vs LHP is not compelling. Shildt (Preller) may be reluctant to at this stage start messing with Cronenworth by suddenly platooning him ... Shildt does like a "stable" line-up.

I guess considering all that ... McCoy may stay around and get left off the playoff roster even if Kim does not return.

Unless Bogaerts gets injured I don't think anyone else is getting any meaningful time at SS until Kim returns. Rosario would only be out there in an emergency situation where Bogaerts got hurt in a game and Wade had already been used. That's highly unlikely. His SS defense really isn't relevant. Ahmed probably is better than McCoy. Neither of them brings much to the table with Bogaerts at SS. They aren't going to hit for anyone. Wade and Lockridge are better runners. Maybe you bring them in on defense with a late lead to get Solano off the field. I think Rosario's bat brings more value than that.

Arguing that Rosario isn't good against lefties because he's hitting under .300 is disingenuous. He's hitting .289/.326/.696 against them. Even in the PCL a 1.022 OPS is pretty damn good. He's crushed them in his limited time at the big league level too. He's at a  1.028 OPS this season and 1.217 for his career. He might not be a great on base guy, but he makes enough contact and does enough damage to be a valuable bat against them. Meanwhile Cronenworth is hitting .197/.275/.248 against them. He's one of the worst regulars in the game when facing left handed pitching. Rosario has more HRs and XBHs in 36 PAs than Cronenworth does in 153.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 13, 2024, 6:09 pm

Rosario is back at SS again tonight. The Chihuahua's season ends on Sunday. If they do decide to add him maybe it happens on Monday.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 14, 2024, 6:34 am

“Looking at the current roster ... and thinking 3-4 years out ... pitching may be the biggest need with Cease, King, Perez, Scott, and Suarez all likely gone via FA (that 5 would cost a fortune to retain ... well beyond the Padres budget) and Musgrove / Darvish aging and heading towards the end of their deals.”

Have no idea the odds of this happening but signing Sasaki in the off season would be absolutely HUGE