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As his innings added up, I was concerned about his recent lack of command (much more walks than earlier in the season) and a slight dip in velocity.  Watched the 6 innings of his game against Peoria and he looked like he did earlier at Lake Elsinore, even though he started to fall behind the count starting with the 5th inning.  The Peoria broadcaster was so impressed with Lowe that he game him an A+ and said there is something special with Lowe.  I concur.  He is neck and neck, at this moment, with Baez as the best SP pitcher prospect ain this system but you have several others right on their tail.  Padres are doing an excellent job of developing pitchers, both starters and relievers,  and this is now the strength of the system behind our top of the system hitters - Salas and De Vries.

Karpathios and Salas had the same problem most of the year - they were much too passive at the plate.  While it is nice to draw a walk, at this development stage you have to be aggressive with pitches that are in the zone that you can drive for a hit, especially in RBI situations.  That was my frustration with Salas and I'm glad to see that he and Karpathios both have become more aggressive and are having success doing so.

I am getting more curious about Romeo Sanabria who is now in AA and still hitting. A 18th round (?) pick in 2022 as a JC catcher and immediately converted to 1B … came out in 2023 has just hit … and has continued up into AA. I like players who can hit and worry less about the other skills.

Maybe not (yet) a good defensive 1B … maybe his power may not be elite (top out at 20 HR) … but he is hitting. Some said he would have difficulty as he move to AA … have yet to see it Is there a obvious flaw in his swing that worries scouts for higher levels?

Does he have the future bat that … in 2026 … could be a DH/1B for the Padres (post Arraez) ,,, not seeing much better in the system in the next two years. Just hope he is  not the next Graham Pauley.

I recall reading that the concern about Romeo Sanabria was that his bat speed was not that quick which could mean he won't be able to catch up to FB's thrown with more velocity as he moves up.  It's kind of the same knock on Brandon Valenzuela although Valenzuela has not really hit for the kind of average Sanabria has.  San Antonio is a tough place to hit, so if Sanabria continues to barrel the ball the remainder of the year, he probably will get a long look and a lot of attention by the coaching staff in the off-season.   Now that he is at AA, I'll be taking a closer look at all his AB's between now and when the season ends on 9/15.

I think the Padres totally mishandled Pauley and caused his confidence to cave.  He should rebound next year and though he'll never be another Merrill, he could be a successful platoon piece.  On the other hand, I think the Padres were right on their evaluations of Marsee and Martorella - because of their college time they were very experienced for their league assignments, but when the completion got tougher, they showed their flaws.

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Another very good game by Jagger Haynes and what has been typical of Fort Wayne, they lost the game when the RP's were given the ball.  Until I see Mayfield and Bateman pitch, Haynes is currently our best LHP prospect.

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Sanabria 1-2 with 4 BB

Salas 1-3 and a BB

Nett with an outstanding start in high-A.

Crismatt with a very good start in AAA.

Quote from Stergios on August 25, 2024, 8:18 am

Sanabria 1-2 with 4 BB

Salas 1-3 and a BB

Nett with an outstanding start in high-A.

Crismatt with a very good start in AAA.

Sanabria keeps delivering … maybe wishful thinking on my part … but did the Padres get lucky and get a hidden ML talent in the 18th round?

I can run a hypothetical scenario where that could be the case. Sanabria was a poor defensive catcher (Padres moved him to 1B immediately without really any effort to test him behind the plate), was a hitter but in a JC (a lot of players produce good stats in JC) … basically he probably got few scouting views and they may not have been that favorable.

Padres move him to 1B … maybe tweek his swing a bit … and unburdens with the duties of catching his true offensive potential is released?

Yeh, still a long shot … BUT???????

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I keep looking for potential in prospects that are not highly rated … like the underdog succeeding theme. Sometimes they actually deliver … maybe fringe ML but still that is of value.

To that end, Padres have a non-drafted RHSP out of Rutgers who moved up to EP. Jarad Kollar. Think he was a SR sign and a bit older (now 26). Moved up the system quickly (albeit not spectacularly). Not a strikeout pitcher. All the earmarks of an over-achieving veteran college type that will peak out in AAA.

Yet pitching in the unfavorable PCL he has had 6 starts … 5 have gone well (for the PCL) yielding only 3-2-0-3-1 ER per game going 5-6 innings. He had one real clunker in OKC yielding 7 ER in 1.1 innings (killed his overall AAA ERA). However, and I like this,  he pitched in OKC 5 days later and went 5 innings yielding only 1 ER (2 hits) … he adjusted.

Another real long shot to contribute in the ML … probably a AAA/4A type arm … but given the ML shortage of useful SP … maybe? Padres don’t have to protect him until Dec, 2025 … so they will have 2025 in EP to evaluate without putting him on the 40 man.

Any scouting view on him?

Basically, has the same kind of repertoire as Omar Cruz.  Fills the strike zone and knows how to spot his below average (89-93) FB.  Change-up, cutter and curveball have been effective (primarily the first two) but has to stay ahead of the count and hit his spots.  Considered an "organizational" arm by scouts but is very competitive and has greatly increased his K rate this year, however, when he misses prone to HR ball (especially at El Paso).  BABIP very favorable (under .275) at El Paso compared to previous years but FIP at over 5.25 says his 5.14 ERA is not far from what we might expect as the year goes on.

I like what he's done this year, but not sure it is sustainable at higher levels.  As you said, we'll see what he does the rest of this year and next.  The major difference between Kollar and Cruz is that Cruz is more of a ground ball pitcher than Kollar, which could make a big difference at the MLB level given Kollar's lack of velocity..

August has been a positive improvement offensively for Salas after a rough time earlier. Keep in mind he just turned 18 in June and is in A+.

78 AB … 256/326/449 (775). Finish strong … some winter ball … in AA next year?

Even Salas' outs have been louder, i.e., hard hit balls with good exit velocity.  Once he started becoming more aggressive at the plate, he hit less bloops, dinks and pop-ups and started to barrel up the ball like he did at Lake Elsinore last year.  I'm not sure why he had such a passive approach much of the year and even though he drew more than his share of walks, he was letting far too many hittable pitches go by - especially in RBI situations.  I don't know this for a fact, but in the games I watched more of his strikeouts were called K's, rather than swing/miss.

Too soon for the AFL but concur that a little bit of winter ball might be good for him.  Catching is a demanding position but at 18, he should still have some energy left to play in the Dominican (I'd stay away from Venezuela) for a few weeks.  Would be surprised if he wasn't in AA to start 2025 even though his high A batting stats indicate he was overmatched; my take is that he still can get better at reading breaking stuff, but definitely not overmatched against velocity or generally against Hi A level pitching.  Salas handled a number of the remaining top pitching prospects in the organization very well and improved his defense behind the plate, blocking balls better and limiting wild pitches.  I don't see any reason to be concerned as he moves up the organization.

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