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#2841 · December 10, 2023, 7:13 pm
Quote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 6:47 pmQuote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 5:02 pmQuote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 4:20 pmQuote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 12:35 pmQuote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 12:02 pmQuote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 10:58 amQuote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 7:02 amIriate is just turning 22 this week and already has hit AA. Clearly has the stuff to succeed as a SP or a backend RP. So his success in the future in either role is harnessing his command … and that can come earlier - later - never … every pitcher is different. So a bit of keep working with him and pivot as necessary. However, even with poor command can see him in the pen as a long RP … not 2024 … given the current view of the pen options.
What might send him to the back end of the pen if he gets his command is timing and if it takes a few years … Thorpe, Snelling, Lesko can bypass him as starters and be locked in (maybe even Mazur or Bergert). Also, all those arms set up a number of RP options or trades.
So, Preller has to be open to watching development and not care who ends up starting and relieving … just who fits the role best.
IF (and unlikely) the projections fall in line and with Musgrove and Darvish still around for at least 4 more seasons … the three SP slots (after King departs in 2 years) will fall to Lesko, Snelling, and Thorpe. Iriate, Mazur, and Bergert go the the pen.
I think we need to pump the brakes a bit on Snelling and Lesko. I see people talking about how Snelling may come up this year... Let's not forget that both of these guys are 1 year out of high school. Snelling is still 19! Snelling has been successful at lower levels with only 2 effective pitches. His changeup is still garbage. That won't work in MLB. Lesko has 33 inning total in the last 2 years. They are over a year away.
Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur and Bergert may/will likely get called up sometime this year. If they are needed as starters they will be brought up to start, if not they will relieve. Either way, if any of them prove to be capable, reliable starters they will earn a rotation spot. Not all of these guys will work out. In fact, most won't. We will be INSANELY lucky if we get 3 reliable, not even TOR starters out of Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur, Bergert and Lizarraga combined. Whoever fails at starting will get chances in the pen.
Snelling was the MiLB pitcher of the year coming out of HS. He was very successful at AA. You need to pump the breaks on Iriarte.
Iriarte is 2 years older than Snelling and has 4 years of minor league experience compared to Snellings 1. Iriarte has 3 effective pitches, Snelling has 2. That being said, I don't think either one will truly be ready this year.
Exactly, Iriarte is older, has more development time, and still lags behind Snelling.
Being the best pitching prospect in your organization does not make you the closest to the majors. I don't see the Padres sending a 20 year old, in his 2nd year out of highschool, with only 2 workable pitches to start at the MLB level. I think the Padres are more worried about his development than they are about competing next year.
We obviously disagree. To each their own.
Go back and look at what I said. Not once did I say he is going to pitch in the MLB this year. I stated Iriarte is destined to pitch in the 7th-9th innings and said Snelling is the better prospect.
Fine
#2842 · December 11, 2023, 8:59 am
El Paso's 2024 off-season roster already has 22 players listed on it although no catchers. Likely Juan Zabala from San Antonio and plus FA ex-Chihuahua Chandler Seagle will be signed for catcher roles, while wouldn't be surprised if they added other older non or lower end prospect position players like Cummings, Reyes and Ona; may even bring up Howell and Castanon from San Antonio. On the pitching side, older guys like Blanchard, Brito, Milacki and Mosser could be in the competition for spots in AAA. Plus, there are a number of players on the 40 man with options or who may be successfully outrighted to El Paso to fill out the roster.
I still see all our younger high end prospect guys growing up together in San Antonio which is much better for our pitchers and probably better for our hitters than the high altitude cities in the PCL that overinflates power numbers. Texas League does have high altitude Amarillo, but that is the exception rather than the rule in the league. That San Antonio team could be one of the best in the minors in 2024.
#2843 · December 11, 2023, 9:23 am
Expect Sullivan to be optioned and the #1 catcher in EP then maybe a toss up between Zavala and Valenzuela as the #2 catcher … Seagle was released I think. Would allow Salas more C time in SA with whomever does not go to EP.
Do expect some more MiL FA to be signed for the INF/OF unless the plan is a mass move of the SA crop up to EP. Padres have no OF to option and probably only Rosario and Marcano (who may start the season on the IL) for the INF. They have bodies but not sure most are even AAA quality … probably need to add some 4A just for the EP fans sake.
Also will be interested in who they end up with as SP (5 or 6?). A lot of RP type but not sure on starters unless adds from SA (which most of us don’t want to see for the best prospects).
Given what might compromise the ML staff based on the current roster (and the ability to option pitchers) … EP could get Morejon, Otto to add to Watson … just a toss up after that. Also that assumes Groome who is out of option is put on waivers / released and is not re-signed. Not sure who from SA would move up as a SP … so might expect another MiL FA pitcher (or two) to be added … ML vet on a minor league deal with an invite to ST and a make good, mid-season opt out.
All the minor league signs may drag out a bit as the Padres and the players evaluate their options.
#2844 · December 11, 2023, 9:25 am
Add that … if he proves healthy and is willing … the Padres may bring Nola back on a minor league deal for EP as potentially more 2024 insurance in case of injury to one (or more) of the 40 man roster catchers.
#2845 · December 11, 2023, 12:15 pm
Feel a bit for Nola.
If his eyesight is back hopefully he has some success somewhere.
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#2846 · December 19, 2023, 9:09 am
Looking forward to further splashy debuts and breakout performances in the Padres minor league system this year. I believe the staffs at Lake Elsinore & Ft. Wayne were particularly impressive in developing both pitchers and hitters. I look forward to a guy like Zavala, who had an oblique injury after promotion to Ft. Wayne, to show much better. I want to see Lesko unleashed and move up to compete with Snelling in the race to the bigs. I want to see Salas and Merrill reach their top of the prospect list potential. Plus, there are so many guys that flashed top end talent before injury or fatigue or who haven't even debuted yet, that you have to get excited to watch these guys on MiLB TV.
Will Dillon Head earn his Top 10 ranking in our system? Will DeVries make it Lake Elsinore this year? Should we be more excited about Mazur and Thorpe? What about Uber-athletes like Tyler Robertson and Homer Bush, Jr? It will be fun year to watch growth and development.
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#2847 · December 19, 2023, 9:34 am
My guy to watch is Blake Dickerson.
Any chance he starts at Lake Elsinore or more likely in Arizona first?
Probably need to see him in the AFL first but he just seems like a guy who could add 20 lbs and 5-6 MPH as he matures.
He turns 19 in a bout 3 weeks.
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#2848 · December 19, 2023, 9:58 am
I be watching two young arms who have been derailed by injuries but teased with some quality work when they played: LHP Haynes and RHP Lowe.
Plus maybe my top curiosity will be Romero Sanabria ... young LHH 1B who tore up Arizona last year in his first year and after being converted from catcher when drafted. 18th round pick in 2022 as a not highly regarded catcher but in 2023 as a 1B ... wow!. Maybe just a flash in the pan ... maybe not.
#2849 · December 19, 2023, 10:09 am
Didn't pitch after being drafted so they had some extra time to hone his mechanics. My guess is that he starts in extended Spring Training and is one of the first ones up after they determine the status of Haynes, Lowe and Pinales, all of whom could make the jump to High A if healthy and show what they flashed at times has become more consistent. Dickerson is one of several guys who will be very interesting to follow, particularly because he is a lefty.
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#2850 · December 19, 2023, 10:43 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 19, 2023, 9:34 amMy guy to watch is Blake Dickerson.
Any chance he starts at Lake Elsinore or more likely in Arizona first?
Probably need to see him in the AFL first but he just seems like a guy who could add 20 lbs and 5-6 MPH as he matures.
He turns 19 in a bout 3 weeks.
Are you hoping that Dickerson turns into the next Joey Cantillo? Me too! Cantillo actually used to throw a little slower than Cantillo did when we got him. Now he throws 92-95, topping out at 98 with a plus changeup. Dare to dream, right? It sure would be nice to have Cantillo right now, but I digress.
I am looking forward to seeing what Kolek and Reynolds can do for our bullpen this year. Hopefully one of them or Jacob can turn into a quality relief weapon for us. The Kolek and Reynolds could have the stuff to become setup relievers or closers. I am not so excited about Jacob, but he could be solid. He looks like a cross between Nabil Crismatt and a right-handed Tim Hill, extremely low release point with tremendous movement and below average velocity.