Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 10:58 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 7:02 am

Iriate is just turning 22 this week and already has hit AA. Clearly has the stuff to succeed as a SP or a backend RP. So his success in the future in either role is harnessing his command … and that can come earlier - later - never … every pitcher is different. So a bit of keep working with him and pivot as necessary. However, even with poor command can see him in the pen as a long RP … not 2024 … given the current view of the pen options.

What might send him to the back end of the pen if he gets his command is timing and if it takes a few years … Thorpe, Snelling, Lesko can bypass him as starters and be locked in (maybe even Mazur or Bergert). Also, all those arms set up a number of RP options or trades.

So, Preller has to be open to watching development and not care who ends up starting and relieving … just who fits the role best.

IF (and unlikely) the projections fall in line and with Musgrove and Darvish still around for at least 4 more seasons … the three SP slots (after King departs in 2 years) will fall to Lesko, Snelling, and Thorpe. Iriate, Mazur, and Bergert go the the pen.

I think we need to pump the brakes a bit on Snelling and Lesko. I see people talking about how Snelling may come up this year... Let's not forget that both of these guys are 1 year out of high school. Snelling is still 19! Snelling has been successful at lower levels with only 2 effective pitches. His changeup is still garbage. That won't work in MLB. Lesko has 33 inning total in the last 2 years. They are over a year away.

Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur and Bergert may/will likely get called up sometime this year. If they are needed as starters they will be brought up to start, if not they will relieve. Either way, if any of them prove to be capable, reliable starters they will earn a rotation spot. Not all of these guys will work out. In fact, most won't. We will be INSANELY lucky if we get 3 reliable, not even TOR starters out of Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur, Bergert and Lizarraga combined. Whoever fails at starting will get chances in the pen.

Quote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 12:02 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 10:58 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 7:02 am

Iriate is just turning 22 this week and already has hit AA. Clearly has the stuff to succeed as a SP or a backend RP. So his success in the future in either role is harnessing his command … and that can come earlier - later - never … every pitcher is different. So a bit of keep working with him and pivot as necessary. However, even with poor command can see him in the pen as a long RP … not 2024 … given the current view of the pen options.

What might send him to the back end of the pen if he gets his command is timing and if it takes a few years … Thorpe, Snelling, Lesko can bypass him as starters and be locked in (maybe even Mazur or Bergert). Also, all those arms set up a number of RP options or trades.

So, Preller has to be open to watching development and not care who ends up starting and relieving … just who fits the role best.

IF (and unlikely) the projections fall in line and with Musgrove and Darvish still around for at least 4 more seasons … the three SP slots (after King departs in 2 years) will fall to Lesko, Snelling, and Thorpe. Iriate, Mazur, and Bergert go the the pen.

I think we need to pump the brakes a bit on Snelling and Lesko. I see people talking about how Snelling may come up this year... Let's not forget that both of these guys are 1 year out of high school. Snelling is still 19! Snelling has been successful at lower levels with only 2 effective pitches. His changeup is still garbage. That won't work in MLB. Lesko has 33 inning total in the last 2 years. They are over a year away.

Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur and Bergert may/will likely get called up sometime this year. If they are needed as starters they will be brought up to start, if not they will relieve. Either way, if any of them prove to be capable, reliable starters they will earn a rotation spot. Not all of these guys will work out. In fact, most won't. We will be INSANELY lucky if we get 3 reliable, not even TOR starters out of Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur, Bergert and Lizarraga combined. Whoever fails at starting will get chances in the pen.

Snelling was the MiLB pitcher of the year coming out of HS.  He was very successful at AA.  You need to pump the breaks on Iriarte.

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 12:33 pm

Personally, in a different situation, I would not have any of these prospects in the conversation as candidates for opening day 2024 … maybe after half a season SOME may be ready for a call up and more likely a more robust debate in 2025 for the ones that survive (and yes some will fade … just don’t know who). I would also include Brito and Vazquez in that thinking even though they hit the ML in 2023.

However the Padres are going to be playing the game of alternatives to fill at least 3 offensive slots and the two SP slots … with maybe only $25MM. So, can any of the prospects (properly ready or not) provide similar results as a low end FA for $5-10MM at any of the openings?

If the Padres can’t find a prospect (or two) to step in at the ML level … and at least be somewhat average … going to be a long season because a series of $5MM FA is in this market bottom of the barrel.

Frankly no good or obvious plan here … and a big issue of even being able to sign FA of any quality given the money demands.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 12:35 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 12:02 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 10:58 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 7:02 am

Iriate is just turning 22 this week and already has hit AA. Clearly has the stuff to succeed as a SP or a backend RP. So his success in the future in either role is harnessing his command … and that can come earlier - later - never … every pitcher is different. So a bit of keep working with him and pivot as necessary. However, even with poor command can see him in the pen as a long RP … not 2024 … given the current view of the pen options.

What might send him to the back end of the pen if he gets his command is timing and if it takes a few years … Thorpe, Snelling, Lesko can bypass him as starters and be locked in (maybe even Mazur or Bergert). Also, all those arms set up a number of RP options or trades.

So, Preller has to be open to watching development and not care who ends up starting and relieving … just who fits the role best.

IF (and unlikely) the projections fall in line and with Musgrove and Darvish still around for at least 4 more seasons … the three SP slots (after King departs in 2 years) will fall to Lesko, Snelling, and Thorpe. Iriate, Mazur, and Bergert go the the pen.

I think we need to pump the brakes a bit on Snelling and Lesko. I see people talking about how Snelling may come up this year... Let's not forget that both of these guys are 1 year out of high school. Snelling is still 19! Snelling has been successful at lower levels with only 2 effective pitches. His changeup is still garbage. That won't work in MLB. Lesko has 33 inning total in the last 2 years. They are over a year away.

Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur and Bergert may/will likely get called up sometime this year. If they are needed as starters they will be brought up to start, if not they will relieve. Either way, if any of them prove to be capable, reliable starters they will earn a rotation spot. Not all of these guys will work out. In fact, most won't. We will be INSANELY lucky if we get 3 reliable, not even TOR starters out of Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur, Bergert and Lizarraga combined. Whoever fails at starting will get chances in the pen.

Snelling was the MiLB pitcher of the year coming out of HS.  He was very successful at AA.  You need to pump the breaks on Iriarte.

Iriarte is 2 years older than Snelling and has 4 years of minor league experience compared to Snellings 1. Iriarte has 3 effective pitches, Snelling has 2. That being said, I don't think either one will truly be ready this year.

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 1:19 pm

Just to set a perspective … and we have been seeing FA consistently signing for more than expected … three blah signings today:

1. LHRP … Chafin (33) … 4.73 ERA / -0.3 WAR last year … $4.25MM base / $ 2.25MM incentives to $6.5MM

2. LHRP… Smith (34) … 4.40 ERA / 0.3 WAR last year … $5MM base / $1MM incentives to $6MM

3. C … Hedges (31) … -1.1 WAR last year … $4MM

Basically $5MM gives you filler … and with $25MM and 5 open slots … Houston we have a problem.

Quote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 4:20 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 12:35 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 12:02 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 10:58 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 7:02 am

Iriate is just turning 22 this week and already has hit AA. Clearly has the stuff to succeed as a SP or a backend RP. So his success in the future in either role is harnessing his command … and that can come earlier - later - never … every pitcher is different. So a bit of keep working with him and pivot as necessary. However, even with poor command can see him in the pen as a long RP … not 2024 … given the current view of the pen options.

What might send him to the back end of the pen if he gets his command is timing and if it takes a few years … Thorpe, Snelling, Lesko can bypass him as starters and be locked in (maybe even Mazur or Bergert). Also, all those arms set up a number of RP options or trades.

So, Preller has to be open to watching development and not care who ends up starting and relieving … just who fits the role best.

IF (and unlikely) the projections fall in line and with Musgrove and Darvish still around for at least 4 more seasons … the three SP slots (after King departs in 2 years) will fall to Lesko, Snelling, and Thorpe. Iriate, Mazur, and Bergert go the the pen.

I think we need to pump the brakes a bit on Snelling and Lesko. I see people talking about how Snelling may come up this year... Let's not forget that both of these guys are 1 year out of high school. Snelling is still 19! Snelling has been successful at lower levels with only 2 effective pitches. His changeup is still garbage. That won't work in MLB. Lesko has 33 inning total in the last 2 years. They are over a year away.

Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur and Bergert may/will likely get called up sometime this year. If they are needed as starters they will be brought up to start, if not they will relieve. Either way, if any of them prove to be capable, reliable starters they will earn a rotation spot. Not all of these guys will work out. In fact, most won't. We will be INSANELY lucky if we get 3 reliable, not even TOR starters out of Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur, Bergert and Lizarraga combined. Whoever fails at starting will get chances in the pen.

Snelling was the MiLB pitcher of the year coming out of HS.  He was very successful at AA.  You need to pump the breaks on Iriarte.

Iriarte is 2 years older than Snelling and has 4 years of minor league experience compared to Snellings 1. Iriarte has 3 effective pitches, Snelling has 2. That being said, I don't think either one will truly be ready this year.

Exactly, Iriarte is older, has more development time, and still lags behind Snelling.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 5:02 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 4:20 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 12:35 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 12:02 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 10:58 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 7:02 am

Iriate is just turning 22 this week and already has hit AA. Clearly has the stuff to succeed as a SP or a backend RP. So his success in the future in either role is harnessing his command … and that can come earlier - later - never … every pitcher is different. So a bit of keep working with him and pivot as necessary. However, even with poor command can see him in the pen as a long RP … not 2024 … given the current view of the pen options.

What might send him to the back end of the pen if he gets his command is timing and if it takes a few years … Thorpe, Snelling, Lesko can bypass him as starters and be locked in (maybe even Mazur or Bergert). Also, all those arms set up a number of RP options or trades.

So, Preller has to be open to watching development and not care who ends up starting and relieving … just who fits the role best.

IF (and unlikely) the projections fall in line and with Musgrove and Darvish still around for at least 4 more seasons … the three SP slots (after King departs in 2 years) will fall to Lesko, Snelling, and Thorpe. Iriate, Mazur, and Bergert go the the pen.

I think we need to pump the brakes a bit on Snelling and Lesko. I see people talking about how Snelling may come up this year... Let's not forget that both of these guys are 1 year out of high school. Snelling is still 19! Snelling has been successful at lower levels with only 2 effective pitches. His changeup is still garbage. That won't work in MLB. Lesko has 33 inning total in the last 2 years. They are over a year away.

Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur and Bergert may/will likely get called up sometime this year. If they are needed as starters they will be brought up to start, if not they will relieve. Either way, if any of them prove to be capable, reliable starters they will earn a rotation spot. Not all of these guys will work out. In fact, most won't. We will be INSANELY lucky if we get 3 reliable, not even TOR starters out of Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur, Bergert and Lizarraga combined. Whoever fails at starting will get chances in the pen.

Snelling was the MiLB pitcher of the year coming out of HS.  He was very successful at AA.  You need to pump the breaks on Iriarte.

Iriarte is 2 years older than Snelling and has 4 years of minor league experience compared to Snellings 1. Iriarte has 3 effective pitches, Snelling has 2. That being said, I don't think either one will truly be ready this year.

Exactly, Iriarte is older, has more development time, and still lags behind Snelling.

Being the best pitching prospect in your organization does not make you the closest to the majors. I don't see the Padres sending a 20 year old, in his 2nd year out of highschool, with only 2 workable pitches to start at the MLB level. I think the Padres are more worried about his development than they are about competing next year.

We obviously disagree. To each their own.

Quote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 6:47 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 5:02 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 4:20 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 12:35 pm

Quote from Notmyopic on December 10, 2023, 12:02 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 10, 2023, 10:58 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2023, 7:02 am

Iriate is just turning 22 this week and already has hit AA. Clearly has the stuff to succeed as a SP or a backend RP. So his success in the future in either role is harnessing his command … and that can come earlier - later - never … every pitcher is different. So a bit of keep working with him and pivot as necessary. However, even with poor command can see him in the pen as a long RP … not 2024 … given the current view of the pen options.

What might send him to the back end of the pen if he gets his command is timing and if it takes a few years … Thorpe, Snelling, Lesko can bypass him as starters and be locked in (maybe even Mazur or Bergert). Also, all those arms set up a number of RP options or trades.

So, Preller has to be open to watching development and not care who ends up starting and relieving … just who fits the role best.

IF (and unlikely) the projections fall in line and with Musgrove and Darvish still around for at least 4 more seasons … the three SP slots (after King departs in 2 years) will fall to Lesko, Snelling, and Thorpe. Iriate, Mazur, and Bergert go the the pen.

I think we need to pump the brakes a bit on Snelling and Lesko. I see people talking about how Snelling may come up this year... Let's not forget that both of these guys are 1 year out of high school. Snelling is still 19! Snelling has been successful at lower levels with only 2 effective pitches. His changeup is still garbage. That won't work in MLB. Lesko has 33 inning total in the last 2 years. They are over a year away.

Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur and Bergert may/will likely get called up sometime this year. If they are needed as starters they will be brought up to start, if not they will relieve. Either way, if any of them prove to be capable, reliable starters they will earn a rotation spot. Not all of these guys will work out. In fact, most won't. We will be INSANELY lucky if we get 3 reliable, not even TOR starters out of Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, Iriarte, Mazur, Bergert and Lizarraga combined. Whoever fails at starting will get chances in the pen.

Snelling was the MiLB pitcher of the year coming out of HS.  He was very successful at AA.  You need to pump the breaks on Iriarte.

Iriarte is 2 years older than Snelling and has 4 years of minor league experience compared to Snellings 1. Iriarte has 3 effective pitches, Snelling has 2. That being said, I don't think either one will truly be ready this year.

Exactly, Iriarte is older, has more development time, and still lags behind Snelling.

Being the best pitching prospect in your organization does not make you the closest to the majors. I don't see the Padres sending a 20 year old, in his 2nd year out of highschool, with only 2 workable pitches to start at the MLB level. I think the Padres are more worried about his development than they are about competing next year.

We obviously disagree. To each their own.

Go back and look at what I said.  Not once did I say he is going to pitch in the MLB this year.  I stated Iriarte is destined to pitch in the 7th-9th innings and said Snelling is the better prospect.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 10, 2023, 7:12 pm

Hader's BB/9 rate in his 2 years with that Padres was 5.1 and 4.8.  Iriarte was 4.1 at Ft Wayne and 5.2 at San Antonio, however, I watched many of the games Iriarte pitched last year and because he had so much movement on his pitches, minor league umpires frequently missed strikes the batters were essentially helpless (frozen) at the plate.  Not saying he doesn't need more command but saying he's gotten a lot better and is trending in the right direction.

Agree that Iriarte is ahead of Snelling in his development, however, not ruling out he won't make the 2024 pitching staff at the beginning of the 2024 season if he has a terrific spring.  The other aspect of Iriarte's game is that he has improved on is his demeanor on the mound - used to show quite a bit of emotion when calls did not go his way, but has matured such that he has confidence he can win the battle against any batter he faces.

While I agree that Snelling needs to improve his change-up, he really didn't need to throw it that much in high school and he is such a competitor, you know he's going to go after developing the best change-up he can.  Moreover, Snelling throws both a 2 seam and 4 seam FB and both a sweeping curve and a more sharp breaking curve - he also varies speeds on his FBs and has very good control for someone so young. Don't sell him short, but agree that he just needs more time to put it altogether - maybe one full year at AA.