Quote from MrPadre19 on June 27, 2022, 9:41 am

Are we really surprised Weathers is Struggling in El Paso?

I just don't get it.....it "sucks" pitching in that environment and you have this young kid trying to get his confidence back getting pounded yet they keep throwing him out there.

It's worse than pitching in Coors field every time out.

Send him to San Antonio for Gwynns sake!

 

Quote from Randy Manese on June 28, 2022, 12:22 am

The minor league teams have completed their first half of the season and it was a pretty good one for most of the top hitting prospects, albeit not injury-free.  I watched dozens and dozens of games on MiLB and hands down Esteury Ruiz was and continues to be the surprise #1 position player in the system based on this half-year's performance.  Always a toolsy prospect because of both his bat and foot speed, Ruiz seems to have finally figured it out.  His walk rate has almost doubled to around 12-13% (which is about where Grisham is) and his K rate has dropped from the mid to high 20's, down to mid to high teens.  If combine these factors with a line-drive % that has increased into the 30% range while maintaining a contact rate of close to 75% you have to be impressed by his growth.  While we can't expect that BA to hold up in the .300 range (BABIP in the 400's is not sustainable) , with his OBP and speed plus wiry power, you can see him hitting possibly 270-280, around 15 HRs,  while creating havoc on the base paths.  On the other hand, Ruiz is not a great defensive player in the OF and cannot play the infield.  Has a rather ordinary to what could be described as a weak arm and his OF inexperience has him not taking the best routes to the ball, however, he does have tremendous closing speed.  I could see him being added to the 40-man and called up, particularly if Grisham continues to flounder.  Ruiz can really ignite an offense as you have seen in San Antonio with Hollis hitting behind him and in El Paso, when he was paired with Abrams at the top of the line-up.  Would bring a needed dimension to the somewhat plodding Padres, especially with Tatis probably not running as often as he has in the past.

In rank order, here are my ratings for the other top hitting prospects based on what I have seen this year.

2.  Jackson Merrill - this guy is legit.  Despite the fact it is a small sample size, impressed by his poise, agility, strength, pitch recognition and instincts.  He should be back in Lake Elsinore soon and we'll see where he goes from there.  A steal in round one last year.

3.  Robert Hassell III - I keep expecting more but what he has given is enough to keep this rating position.  Should be in AA soon.

4.  CJ Abrams - slow start and has to learn to be more selective.  World of talent and potentially the best hitter/base runner of all the Padres prospects.  Impatience affecting his effectiveness since he knows he can hit any pitch, however, many times he's going after the pitcher's pitch, instead of waiting for a mistake.  He can do great damage if he just becomes more patient.

5.  James Wood - despite his injuries, has shown great discipline at the plate and flashed the power we know he has.  Wrist injury will probably affect his power numbers this year but already has shown that he is another steal of the 2021 draft.

6.  Luis Campusano - statistically has had a good year, but it is an uneven one.  Tends to be streaky and undisciplined at times but at other times looks like the best player on the field.  Can be a complete hitter if he just lets the game come to him and not try to do too much, like try to hit a HR every time at bat.  After failing that, he then goes the opposite way to keep his average up.  Talent is there, the discipline to be a consistent hitter is not always there.

Others who have impressed me but are not likely in the top prospect category are Kohlwey, Batten, Hollis, Fabian and Luis.  The latter two are surprising upgrades from past performances while the first three are somewhat old to be considered top prospects but get the most out of their ability.  Max Ferguson and Corey Rosier are two of the most exiting players to watch and hopefully their bats will come around in the second half.

Quote from Randy Manese on June 30, 2022, 7:53 am

Didn't comment on Padres pitching prospects at the mid-point in the minor league season, but safe to say it has been a challenging one at all levels.  Instead, you should know there are about 40 Rule 5 eligibles/Free Agents pitchers on minor league rosters who will  achieve this status after the 22 season, so who might the Padres protect or have interest protecting on the November 40-man based on performance, as inconsistent as it has been, this year.

For starting pitchers, Noel Vela (L), Matt Waldron (R) and Jairo Iriarte (R) deserve mention as does potential free agent Reggie Lawson(R).  All have issues, but Vela seems to have the most promise if he can tweak his command.  I really like the potential of Iriarte but his command is just too inconsistent to be protected - hope he sneaks through.  Lawson would be a great comeback story and has made good strides recently but still has a long way to go to be considered a top prospect again.  Waldron is interesting but still developing that knuckleball.

Tons of RPs, but few will be protected or brought up:  Jose Castillo (probably will be on 40-man soon, otherwise a potential Free Agent); Alan Mundo (R), Brandon Komar (R), Edwuin Bencomo (R) and Thomas Cosgrove (L) have been solid but are likely not going to be drafted, while Angel Felipe (R) may once again become a free agent - great stuff but poor command.  All have shown flashes of talent and may go in the minor vice major league Rule 5 draft if not protected.

Most of the Padres' pitching prospects are in the High A or lower category and need a lot of developmental time.  Hard to get too excited about the Rookie leagues, but Jarlin Susana is dominating in the ACL and several starters have down well down in the Dominican.  Undersized Manuel Castro could be the sleeper this year after his dominating performance with Lake Elsinore a couple of days ago.  We'll see how he performs the rest of the season; he did well in the Dominican last year but strike zone command needs improvement as he sometimes catches too much the plate.

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2022, 8:42 am

Yeh, not compelled to consider any of the minor league pitchers as "must protect" (except for Castillo) ... but expect some will be just for insurance. Another 2 1/2 months will help make the call along with the flexibility on the post-season 40 man. Once the FA are gone but the 60 day guys are added ... not sure the room for "protects" before having to bump players off the 40 man. Plus have to weigh the adding of the non-pitching prospects ... clearly E.Ruiz and potentially Ornelas (hitting better recently in AA) and Valuezuela (only A+ but a quality catching prospect nonetheless.

Padres ... if they want to be competitive in 2023 need as may players as they can on the 40 man that can be call-ups as needed and have a chance to hold their own ... that is usually AAA/AA players which leads me to not protect any A ball types unless they are slam dunk top prospects (and none are).

In Rule 5 ... selecting a player who was not protected and keeping that player on the ML active roster is not an easy road, so, exposing prospects may not be all that great a risk if they are not high potential.

I see E.Ruiz and Castillo but after that ????. Would guess that the Padres may see something in a RP we are not considering which will cause us to say "who?".

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2022, 8:59 am

Although I doubt it ... have to consider AAA OF/1B Taylor Kohlwey .. LHH in his late 20s but can hit for average / little power (at least in the minors). Maybe only an upside of a bench option but with POTENTIALLY the FA of Hosmer, Myers, Mazara, and Profar and really only Ruiz on the cusp of the ML and Beaty a TBD ... adding him may be insurance next December as the Padres try to rebuild an OF. Can always DFA later if there is a 40 man crunch.

Kohlwey has never gotten any prospect recognition ... probably since he was 21st round draft pick from a very small school in WISC, does not have power or speed, probably limited to a corner OF/1B (but does not fit the profile) ... yet seems to be able to hit. Maybe just a AAAA type bat ... have not seen the scouting on his bat speed, etc. Given the current lack of options ... insurance.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 30, 2022, 10:19 am

Kowhley is someone that would be a sell high near mlb ready piece in a trade for B Reynolds for example..

Cosgrove I like a lot

But something like Campy (don't think Pads see him as C of the future) + Kowhley + Wethers + Lamet + Ferguson + Mundo.. for Reynolds type trade might be good/great for both... Kowhley could be (Owen Miller/Ty France) like for Pirates... Campy would fit right in with developing club that includes some very nice youth and some ex Padres farm specs.. (familiarity)... Wethers change and age project well ..Ferguson has some Arias/X Edwards type appeal as a down the line speedy INF.. and Mundo is expendable ...

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2022, 10:31 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 30, 2022, 10:19 am

Kowhley is someone that would be a sell high near mlb ready piece in a trade for B Reynolds for example..

Cosgrove I like a lot

But something like Campy (don't think Pads see him as C of the future) + Kowhley + Wethers + Lamet + Ferguson + Mundo.. for Reynolds type trade might be good/great for both... Kowhley could be (Owen Miller/Ty France) like for Pirates... Campy would fit right in with developing club that includes some very nice youth and some ex Padres farm specs.. (familiarity)... Wethers change and age project well ..Ferguson has some Arias/X Edwards type appeal as a down the line speedy INF.. and Mundo is expendable ...

That could be close ... but adding Lamet would probably hurt the deal since PITT is not likely interested in an expensive 1 year player.

As suggested elsewhere, maybe replacing Lamet in the deal with Kim (bigger salary but longer control in a serious area of need for PITT) might move the deal. Campusano, Weathers, Kim ... might only need one additional non-roster type to get PITT to bite.

Given that Reynolds is very good made more appealing with 3 1/2 years control and will be very low cost for his talent ... at least in 2023 ... PITT can hold out for a very strong return.

Quote from BoosterSD on June 30, 2022, 10:37 am

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2022, 10:31 am

That could be close ... but adding Lamet would probably hurt the deal since PITT is not likely interested in an expensive 1 year player.

As suggested elsewhere, maybe replacing Lamet in the deal with Kim (bigger salary but longer control in a serious area of need for PITT) might move the deal. Campusano, Weathers, Kim ... might only need one additional non-roster type to get PITT to bite.

Given that Reynolds is very good made more appealing with 3 1/2 years control and will be very low cost for his talent ... at least in 2023 ... PITT can hold out for a very strong return.

IMO, this is the one that hurts, since I have not given up on him yet. However, you got to give something up to get something good.....so I would probably pull that trigger.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 30, 2022, 10:51 am

Speaking of Milb ..I need to go to an LE game soon..having been to one since before Merrill got hurt..and Wood was hurt then.. want to take a peek at Wood... Merrill to me and my naked eye looked like a Crone zone 2.0 twin with bigger size 6'3".. and same competitor hard work pedigree... i see Merrill making top 50 if not greater perhaps by seasons end but for sure in A+/AA next season... Wood just cracked top 100 at #100.. and he probably has a much higher ceiling than perhaps anyone I'm our system