Quote from fenn68 on January 6, 2021, 7:04 am

As suggested a few months ago, today's reports that the minor league seasons for AA and below are expected to be delayed. Basically minimizing the number of players at the ST site at the same time.

Current thinking is that ST starts at the scheduled time but only for ML/AAA roster candidates .... once they clear the ST sites and head to the regular season sites ... then the AA and below teams assemble.

Could be anywhere between a 2-4 week delay depending on how long they feel the minor leaguers need in ST vs working into full playing form while playing in their home sites / leagues. Since this is the minor leagues, probably more an issue of pitchers' health than quality of play or "winning". Wonder if in the minors they agree to carrying an extra pitcher (or two) for the first month just to protect the pitchers.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 6, 2021, 8:37 am

So no Taxi squad.......will only be able to pull from AAA until after AA and others get rolling?

So where is Gore for a month if he doesn’t make opening day roster?

In AAA just in case and then to AA?

Cause I don’t want him pitching in El Paso!

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 6, 2021, 8:52 am

The delay of AA down does make sense, but creates a lot of logistical & placement challenges.

The 2 biggest that come immediately to mind are:  1) How to handle the "best" SP's.  Many feel they should be at AA, but they will all be in ST on the 40-man + Gore.  Seems more logical they go to AAA to have their season/workload better aligned with Padres.   2)  Typically players move freely between levels; every callup @ MLB to plug an injury hole or rotate in a RP often creates a cascade of 1 or more "backfill" moves at the Minors levels below.  Seems highly unlikely that player movement between levels will be "normal".  MAJOR issue to address; how to handle backfilling callups at majors level.  Expect to see expanded Minors rosters &/or some type of "reserve pool" at ST complex after teams go out that can be called up but isn't "crossing" between so many teams/levels.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 6, 2021, 12:14 pm

Best guess the teams open ST with 70 +/- players "likely" ticketed for ML/AAA with a few overages to cover injuries ... non performance.

Last week of March ... ML/AAA rosters set and move out to SD/EP ... the ones that are not assigned to either roster remain at the ST site as the rest of the minor league players arrive and continue is a ST mode until their seasons begin in maybe 4 weeks before before landing on their rosters.

So, someone like Gore probably is invited to the opening of ST and if the Padres deem him in AA ... just hangs around in ST longer. In a 2021 that innings management is the buzz word ... probably not all that bad of an arrangement. Padres will walk the line on where the see the prospect being placed and if it is AA and below ... do they think the full ST has development value vs. the value of having ML/AAA options getting the initial work (sorting).

Flip side is that if there is a need to augment the initial ST players mid-way in ST ... everyone is just a phone call away (re: injuries).

Padres will probably invite the 40 man (less the injured), the AAA or bust types, and a couple of AA prospects that "might" make a ML impact in 2021.

Shouldn't be a major player management issue since the Padres probably have almost all the players' tickets punched for their initial assignments based on 2019 and scouting evaluations ... ST would not have altered that much.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 8, 2021, 11:04 am

From Jim Bowden @ The Athletic:  each team's most underrated prospect...

Brayan Medina, RHP
Age: 18 B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 180

Scouting grades:
FB: 65 SLI: 55 CH: 45 CTL: 50 CMND: 45

Medina had eyebrows raised at the Padres’ instructional league camp. His strong, athletic pitching frame, smooth delivery and aggressive approach have evaluators fist-bumping one another. He has a mid-90s fastball with above-average life to go along with a power slider and a changeup that is inconsistent but flashes average at times. He has a high baseball IQ and is not afraid to pitch inside. He’s arguably the Padres’ third-best pitching prospect in their farm system, behind only MacKenzie Gore and Ryan Weathers.

Me:  That last sentence is a STRONG statement with Justin Lange, Reggie Lawson, etc as prospects...

Quote from Randy Manese on January 8, 2021, 7:22 pm

With Morejon already graduated from the prospect list, this could certainly be true but he (and Lange) is one of the youngest and furthest away so a lot could happen before we know for sure.  I'm certainly going to follow his growth as well as dozens of other interesting arms in the Padres' system that really needed to have that year of development that was missed in 2020.  Hoping that the minor league season is not delayed too long so we can get a really good look at what we have in pitchers like Medina, Lange, Arias, Morales, Contreras and Cruz.

Quote from Ben Davey on January 8, 2021, 8:01 pm

I highly doubt 70 players will be at ST, probably closer to 50 at the beginning of ST.  Remember minor leagues usually start about a week after the big leagues do.  So you wont see the guys ticketed for Triple-A probably until the end of March, then right before they go see the Double-A guys come in, then High-A down the line.

The other part that still hasnt been decided is the $ aspect.  Most minor league clubs make 60%+ of their money from fans.  No fans, teams would be losing money.  I am sure part of the delay is also related to the idea that the further out they push it the more likely they will be able to have fans back in the stands at least in some compacity.

Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2021, 7:02 am

Going to be an interesting business decision on the opening of the minor leagues ... debate between the MLB owners and the owners of the MiLB franchises ... and any financial support.

For AA and down ... if around May 1 ... current thinking will be “some fans” in “some venues” will be allowed (probably % of capacity). Given the relatively low per game attendance being the norm ... might not be too big an issue in playing games.

MLB clubs do have a vested interest in developing players ... and running minor leagues ... so maybe the subsidized a bit.

A bit more challenging opening AAA the second week of April ... normally much higher attendance profile and likely more costs to run those franchises. However, most project that by the 2nd week in April ... some level of fans will be allowed and media revenues would flow if they play, so losses may not be as dramatic and only for a shorter transitional period.

Three months until the AAA start and 3 weeks more to the AA and lower start ... with the vaccine being distributed ... and considering (not CA) other states already allowing some fans ... probably a fair planning strategy to go with this plan. (Can always pull the plug at the last minute).

What would be considered a minimum for ST to get players ready while minimizing injury as the season starts (pitchers being the primary concern). If 3-4 weeks, that should be the lag between the AAA departing and the AA season starting. Reversing that, the potential AAA roster should be in ST mid March (or earlier).

My thought on something more than 50 has to do with not over using the MLB roster players before they are “stretched out” risking injury. Normally (primarily pitchers) have a gradual ramp up over ST ... with ST games starting around Mar 1 and back field simulated games just need bodies to allow the ML roster to safely progress. Need multiple catchers to work with the pitchers ... excess pitchers to keep the ML guys limited early ...  extra position players to keep the Tatis, Machado, et al off the field as much as possible.

Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2021, 7:17 am

First ST game is Feb 27 starting a daily grind ... to me suggest a “double roster” with some extra catchers / pitchers from the start.