Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2020, 9:15 am

Whether it is in the Padres’ or any other club’s ranking ... their position is a bit irrelevant since 3 of the 4 have never played in the states and any ranking is just a place holder. Probably don’t get a good read until they play (and probably play in full season).

Everyone is just going on their international signing pedigree (not much choice) ... a bunch of lottery picks that appealed to Hoyer to hopefully hit an upside player (e.g. the next Tatis). High risk ... but the key to Hoyer was dropping Darvish’s contract.

Personally would like a ranking that does not include players until they play in full season ball and maybe a second “ranking” of players pre-full season (AZ, DSL, signings).  Until then putting square pegs into round holes ... except for may to the Top draft picks.

 

Quote from Ben Davey on December 31, 2020, 11:40 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 31, 2020, 9:07 am

OK, Madfriars...

It was reported in the Snell trade that Erik Longenhagen (sp?) was describing Blake Hunt as "top 100  MLB" level prospect!?

I always thought Hunt was a little underrated, but no way would have him anywhere near that high...

Where would you guys have put him in our current system?

I did the write up for Hunt (who was now traded so it didnt make it to print haha), but essentially he was a high round pick that was kinda the forgotten man in a system that had Campusano, Hedges, and Mejia (three of the best catchers, prospect wise, in all of baseball) and thats already forgetting to mention Austin Allen.  He has always been a nice piece, but scouts were drooling over his development at the Alt Site and Instructs this year.  It looks like he put on about 20 lbs of pure upper body muscle.  His power increased, his pop times increased, everything about him made him go from looking like a nice back up MLB catcher (which isnt nothing, ask Jason Castro), to a potential top 100 prospect.

Not only did he develop himself, but the Padres' staff has noted how great it was for all the hitters (Hunt, Ona, Campy, Head, etc...) going against the likes of Weathers, Gore, Lucchesi, etc... everyday.  The lower level minor guys went from mainly facing guys that would never make it past Double-A, to top 100 prospects and former MLB pitchers.  You either look REALLY bad all year, or you learn to improve.  Hunt was one of the prospects that was called out multiple times for how much he improved from March to the end of instructs in October.

Quote from Ben Davey on December 31, 2020, 11:50 am

Those grades, especially on players who have never played a game of pro baseball, are super subject to change, especially for hitters.  Take Caissie, who I am only mentioning because we just retweeted his thank you Padres for drafting me.  He has serious power as an 18 year old, and he could very well be a 30+ HR guy in the majors.  But there is also serious swing and miss concerns that might mean it takes him 4+ years to develop or he never makes it out of A Ball.  The thing is a LOT of hitters have huge raw power, but swing and miss concerns, and especially the high school guys its really hard to evaluate them for the future until you see them in the majors.

Preciado has the same issue.  He has all the tools where he could be the next Tatis, but in my 10 years with MadFriars I have probably seen 10 Tatis' in the system when they are 16, and there is only one Tatis.  Luis Almanzar received a HUGE bonus in 2016 (way bigger than Patino), I remember watching him in spring training 2019, and it looked like he finally put it all together.  He was crushing balls, turning every single into a double, and looked great on defense.  I was thinking "top 100 prospect finally" He then did so bad at Fort Wayne he was sent back to AZL.  The tools are (or were) still there, but how do you grade the liklihood that they will reach those tools until you see them perform?  Its all a question and a reason I wouldnt take any of those 40 verse 45 rankings too seriously on guys who havent played a game yet.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 31, 2020, 4:03 pm

Mad Friars just did an article on Cumberland, who seemed to have all it takes to be a star at the next level until derailed by injuries.  Anderson Espinoza and Luis Urias were two of the brightest prospects the Padres had 3-4 years ago.  Espinoza similarly adversely affected by injuries and will probably never reach the level predicted for him.  Urias was supposed to be the Padres' 2nd basemen for years to come and at one point looked more major league ready than Tatis...then, he decided he wanted to be Altuve and lost the skills and confidence that made Luis Urias special.  Many were talking about Urias being a batting champ with his high contact rate and exceptional eye at the plate; now I don't see him any better than Cronenworth, if that.

Point is that prospects are prospects until they produce and the 4 young guys we gave up for Darvish have to overcome huge odds to bring in a return that Darvish is expected to bring in the next 3 years at the major league level.  Darvish seems to be the rare pitcher, like Verlander and Scherzer, that will be able to hang onto his velocity into his mid-30's.  Plus, Darvish has so many pitches that even if he does lose a tick off that velocity,  his other stuff can compensate for it.  I'm going to miss following the careers of those that we have traded in the minor leagues but I'm going to enjoy going to PETCO and watching Darvish pitch a whole lot more!  P.S.  Looking for a breakout from Almanzar this year (or at least be better than Barley or Justin Lopez)!

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2020, 5:41 pm

Listened to a Hoyer interview talking about Darvish ... he loves him and his ability to pitch ... and really how to pitch to set up batters with this arsenal of pitches.

What I found interesting (and a reason he may pitch for sometime) is that Hoyer said although he has a mid to upper 90s FB ... he does not command it well or use it all that much ... just unleashes it at the right time (maybe 20-30%) and it is effect because it is a surprise to the hitter. Basically his breaking stuff set-up his FB .... not visa versa as preached a few years ago.

He however has great command of all those breaking pitches. So, losing some velocity on the FB may not be all that critical. Yeh, he should (if healthy) be very effective for the next three years and even be a candidate for extension.

Quote from Ben Davey on January 1, 2021, 9:37 am

Multiple podcasts discuss this question when it comes to trading low level minors...

"If one of the guys the Padres traded for Darvish turns into an all-star, and another turns into a MLB regular, but Darvish helps the Padres win the world series, would you make the trade again?"

The answer should be 100% yes.  Yes we (as fans) want to win the world series every year for the next 10 years, BUT how many of us would chop off a finger if it meant the Padres win A SINGLE world series.  So year you make that trade every year.

BTW, Jim Callis brought up that Luis Patino could very well be Blake Snell, and in three years be the ace of Tampa.  But Snell "struggled" his first two years (51 BB in 89 IP his first year, 4+ ERA his 2nd before his CY season).  Padres need the polish this year, and Snell is already at his ceiling.  Again, in easy trade to make and as Padres fans we still hope Patino and Mejia establish themselves.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 1, 2021, 10:07 am

It's ironic but it was the Cubs that were involved in 4 man trades with the Yankees and White Sox to get Chapman and Quintana in 2016 and 2017, respectfully.  Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez were much higher ranked than any of the prospects we gave up and Chapman was just a rental thru the 2016 season.  BUT the Cubs won the World Series in 2016 and lost to the Dodgers in the NL championship series in 2017, a team which Darvish was a part of.

Your point with Snell is well-taken and shows why minor league innings are so important for younger pitchers to develop their craft.  Snell was averaging 4, 5 and even 6.6 walks per 9 innings in his youth but really put it together in 2017 in the PCL; during those years, however, his K rate was high and H rate was low - this is similar to Patino and many other young pitchers who just need to establish command because their stuff is very very good.  If Patino maintains his health, he could be every bit as good as Snell in 2-4 years but if the objective is to win now, then you have to go with Snell/Darvish because those windows of opportunity are very fickle and you have to jump at the chance to get to the World Series if you can.  The amazing part of all these transactions since the trade deadline is that Patino is the only guy you really feel bad about losing.  Trammell still had a long ways to go, in my opinion, and all the other pieces major league or minor league, can and will ultimately be replaced by draft, international signings and trade.  I'll also miss Patino's vivacious personality - he and Franmil were hard guys to lose in that regard.

Quote from hoffy51 on January 3, 2021, 12:15 pm

Does anyone know of any possible signings for the Padres on the International Signing day Jan 15th?

Quote from Randy Manese on January 3, 2021, 12:52 pm

Baseball America had a recent article on Padres' prospective signees.  Victor Acosta (switch-hitting ss), Samuel Zavala (LH-hitting of) and Victor Lizarraga (RHP) are the top names mentioned.