Quote from Ben Davey on December 30, 2020, 6:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2020, 11:47 am

Looking at the prospect ranking lists ... not in 2021 ... but with a number of OF prospects (Abrams, Hassell, and Head) .... could we envision filling the big hole in the system for a legit 1B prospect with the conversion of Ornelas and / or Means? Both still should be developed as OF (more value if they develop the defensive skills) but both are big growing kids and if their hit tool plays the might fill the post-Hosmer role.

 

In 2019 Ornerlas started playin 1B because there was too many OF.  I know Mears is a big kid, and have heard some rumors that he could move over to 1B but its hard to know without seeing them.  The Padres' are fairly light when it comes to 1B prospects in the system, but at the same time, its not hard to envision moving literally anyone over to 1B (see Myers and Cronenworth).

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2020, 6:35 pm

Quote from Ben Davey on December 30, 2020, 6:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2020, 11:47 am

Looking at the prospect ranking lists ... not in 2021 ... but with a number of OF prospects (Abrams, Hassell, and Head) .... could we envision filling the big hole in the system for a legit 1B prospect with the conversion of Ornelas and / or Means? Both still should be developed as OF (more value if they develop the defensive skills) but both are big growing kids and if their hit tool plays the might fill the post-Hosmer role.

 

In 2019 Ornerlas started playin 1B because there was too many OF.  I know Mears is a big kid, and have heard some rumors that he could move over to 1B but its hard to know without seeing them.  The Padres' are fairly light when it comes to 1B prospects in the system, but at the same time, its not hard to envision moving literally anyone over to 1B (see Myers and Cronenworth).

Also, finding a decent ML 1B may be one of the easier finds via FA or trade (unless you are looking for Freddie Freeman). Myers will be gone before Hosmer (most likely) and we are maybe two years away from an issue assuming Hosmer opts out (betting yes).

Alway good to have an internal fallback option if an outside add is just too hard (or expensive) to pull off.

Side: if Hosmer is key to big seasons in 2021-22 ... could see the Padres buying out his opt out by adding to his final 3 years scheduled for $13MM per.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 30, 2020, 8:27 pm

Hosmer had his best offensive year for us at age 30 but his defensive work is starting to slip badly.  Certainly, it would be great for the Padres to have Hosmer perform well in 2021 and 2022 but going into his 33+ years and eroding defense don't warrant buying his opt out - let him go, if he wants to - to get more than $13 M/year through 2025.   I'm thinking the Padres draft or trade for a 1b man in the next 3 years, since that kind of bat is usually available later in the draft unless it's someone like Torkleson or Vaughn.  I'm not worried about filling the 1st base hole given that Hosmer was not rated a top 1st basemen when he hit free agency and was/is still "overpaid" through 2022.  Price for Josh Bell was surprisingly low and I'd rather have him then Hosmer for the money I'm currently laying out to cover that position.

Myers will be gone before Hosmer if Hosmer does not opt out but if Myers outperforms Hosmer or any other potential replacement over the next 2 years, Padres still have a 2023 option on Myers, when he will still only be 32 years old during the 2023 season.  Myers is not the train wreck in the OF that Pham is and I thought overall was decent in RF, although certainly not Mookie Betts or even Hunter Renfroe.  If Hosmer does opt out, Padres can even pick up Myers' option and move him to 1b for a year; he had one good year and one bad year at 1b.  I love the joy I saw on Myers' face and in his body language last year and I'd be surprised if he doesn't have another strong year in 2021.

Quote from Ben Davey on December 30, 2020, 11:39 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on December 30, 2020, 8:27 pm

Hosmer had his best offensive year for us at age 30 but his defensive work is starting to slip badly.  Certainly, it would be great for the Padres to have Hosmer perform well in 2021 and 2022 but going into his 33+ years and eroding defense don't warrant buying his opt out - let him go, if he wants to - to get more than $13 M/year through 2025.   I'm thinking the Padres draft or trade for a 1b man in the next 3 years, since that kind of bat is usually available later in the draft unless it's someone like Torkleson or Vaughn.  I'm not worried about filling the 1st base hole given that Hosmer was not rated a top 1st basemen when he hit free agency and was/is still "overpaid" through 2022.  Price for Josh Bell was surprisingly low and I'd rather have him then Hosmer for the money I'm currently laying out to cover that position.

Myers will be gone before Hosmer if Hosmer does not opt out but if Myers outperforms Hosmer or any other potential replacement over the next 2 years, Padres still have a 2023 option on Myers, when he will still only be 32 years old during the 2023 season.  Myers is not the train wreck in the OF that Pham is and I thought overall was decent in RF, although certainly not Mookie Betts or even Hunter Renfroe.  If Hosmer does opt out, Padres can even pick up Myers' option and move him to 1b for a year; he had one good year and one bad year at 1b.  I love the joy I saw on Myers' face and in his body language last year and I'd be surprised if he doesn't have another strong year in 2021.

Hosmer hit .204/.245/.367 last year against lefties.

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2020, 6:02 am

Well the future of 1B doesn’t even become a replacement issue for two years .... along with RF. Way too soon to lock into any course of action until we see if the team is playing World Series type ball and whether Hosmer and Myers are holding their weight and who is their replacement. Oh yea, always have to consider budget if 2021-22 is pulling the money in the 5 year plan forward and getting into play big money to Lamet / Tatis. (Sort of why getting some adds via a prospect is appealing over adding a veteran ... money is always an issue).

With Hosmer, more of a toss up that those who don’t like him think with Scott Boras his agent and with a new CBA and post-Covid 19 .... teams may find a veteran 1B may be worth more than $13MM/yr for 3 years (however, likely $13MM for a platoon 1B/DH vs RHP might be fine for the Padres). Ball in Boras’ court.

Better chance they exercise the option ($20MM) with Myers ... potentially losing BOTH for 2023 .... the last control year for Darvish, Snell, and Lamet (Clevinger already gone) would make it a challenge to repeat as World Series champ in 2023. Padres need to maximize this 3 year window ... so maybe some decisions that look more short run that long run.

The winter of 2023-24 maybe a exciting with all the FA. Hopefully 3 years is enough to fully develop the prospects in the lower levels and any draft picks as replacements.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 31, 2020, 8:19 am

Quote from Ben Davey on December 30, 2020, 6:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2020, 11:47 am

Looking at the prospect ranking lists ... not in 2021 ... but with a number of OF prospects (Abrams, Hassell, and Head) .... could we envision filling the big hole in the system for a legit 1B prospect with the conversion of Ornelas and / or Means? Both still should be developed as OF (more value if they develop the defensive skills) but both are big growing kids and if their hit tool plays the might fill the post-Hosmer role.

 

In 2019 Ornerlas started playin 1B because there was too many OF.  I know Mears is a big kid, and have heard some rumors that he could move over to 1B but its hard to know without seeing them.  The Padres' are fairly light when it comes to 1B prospects in the system, but at the same time, its not hard to envision moving literally anyone over to 1B (see Myers and Cronenworth).

I agree that 1 of the 2 most important "start playing at other positions" this year should be Ornelas @ 1B.    The MOST important is for Abrams to start playing some in the OF.   I HATE it when guys get positionally shifted in MLB, but never have spent an inning at the position in their 700 games in the minors... just don't get it.  Like the thought never occurred even though it can be seen "a mile" (a few seasons) away!

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 31, 2020, 8:42 am

MLB.com is either underrating the remaining Padres Farm in the #10-15 range, or (more likely) overrating guys who were traded.

Ornelas at #10 is a "40" (dime a dozen) grade.  As is every prospect down to #30.  It's probably buried on a thread somewhere, but I'm pretty sure that a year ago, we had "45" grade guys all the way down to #25 or beyond.

All 4 guys who went to the Cubs (Preciado, Mena, Caissie, & Santana) have 45 grades in the Cubs' system, so any one of them would be at least #10 in our system?   But they are #10 - #17 in the Cubs' system.   They also have Blake Hunt as a "45", but in Rays' #1 by far system he is ranked #24.  Our only remaining "45's" are:  Head, Lawson, & Lange.

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2020, 8:49 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 31, 2020, 8:19 am

Quote from Ben Davey on December 30, 2020, 6:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2020, 11:47 am

Looking at the prospect ranking lists ... not in 2021 ... but with a number of OF prospects (Abrams, Hassell, and Head) .... could we envision filling the big hole in the system for a legit 1B prospect with the conversion of Ornelas and / or Means? Both still should be developed as OF (more value if they develop the defensive skills) but both are big growing kids and if their hit tool plays the might fill the post-Hosmer role.

 

In 2019 Ornerlas started playin 1B because there was too many OF.  I know Mears is a big kid, and have heard some rumors that he could move over to 1B but its hard to know without seeing them.  The Padres' are fairly light when it comes to 1B prospects in the system, but at the same time, its not hard to envision moving literally anyone over to 1B (see Myers and Cronenworth).

I agree that 1 of the 2 most important "start playing at other positions" this year should be Ornelas @ 1B.    The MOST important is for Abrams to start playing some in the OF.   I HATE it when guys get positionally shifted in MLB, but never have spent an inning at the position in their 700 games in the minors... just don't get it.  Like the thought never occurred even though it can be seen "a mile" (a few seasons) away!

I see the logic ... to a point ... of developing them at the more challenging position (higher value) .... e.g. corner OF vs. 1B or SS vs OF. No guarantee that what we see as a “block” today will be there when they are ML ready.

Will Tatis stay healthy or will the Padres NEED a plus SS in 2-3 years? Grisham appears to be a plus defensive CF will Abrams be better or fall to a corner (easier to learn, master)? Head and Hassell are on a similar trajectory as Abrams ... and they are OF. So waiting (and maybe developing his OF skills) can be a final minor league season approach (he apparently is athletic enough to adapt quickly).

Then, whether it is Abrams as a SS or Ornelas / Mears as an OF, they hold better trade value if that is where it ends up.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 31, 2020, 8:59 am

Definitely worth pointing out that entering 2020, by consensus, the guys we traded to Cubs for Darvish were, in our best in MLB system at the time:

• Caissie - #24 -25  (very similar to Joshua Mears #25; HS, 2nd round, OF)
• Preciado - #26
• Mena - #30
• Santana - #32

To put it another way, if we did the exact same trade for Darvish (after Snell), but Darvish had been on the Rays--best system by far now-- we would have traded 4 prospects in the #25-35 range (Blake Hunt > these 4 is ranked #24) + 1 year of Davies for 3 years of a 1st team All MLB SP, 2nd in NL Cy Young, consensus top 15-20 SP in all of MLB.  .  OUCH!

The numerical ranking of a team's system is mentally misleading.  These 4 guys are all good prospects, but saying they would all be top 10 in our system now doesn't accurately portray where they really stand among all prospects in baseball.  Just because the Cubs system is not as deep as the Rays doesn't make the prospects any "better".