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#1151 · December 13, 2019, 10:36 am
Well there really are not that many major prospects that who after 5 "full years" that are that critical but IF one was still around ... can put them on the 40 man ... spaces will be available since the team does not have to protect with lesser service time as they do now .... e.g. would not have to protect Ona this winter and could have retained one of those potential minor league FA. Could also think that maybe a couple of the prospects added to the 40 man last summer were added because they were going to have to be added to protect them from Rule 5 anyway. Basically a lot more flexibility with the 40 man.
Trying to balance the best interests of the team ... the minor league player ... and veteran major league players that may be bumped ... this process is not that simple.
In this era, hard for me justifying keeping control of a signee for effectively 7 years in the minors (6 full plus the signing year) without being added to the 40 man ... by then they are usually just minor leaguer players but for the few that have potential ML value they deserve the shot to reposition themselves to an organization that may actually use them. If they like their current organization ... they just resign with them but at least on some level of competition for their services. Considering what ML teams pay their minor leaguers ... they deserve something that helps their payday if they choose to keep playing that long in the minors.
#1152 · December 13, 2019, 11:03 am
In this era, hard for me justifying keeping control of a signee for effectively 7 years in the minors (6 full plus the signing year) without being added to the 40 man
16 y.o. International Signees (think HIGH SCHOOL JUNIOR; non-elite guys would be JUST arriving on their Varsity H.S. teams), some of whom literally sign day/s after turning 16 would only be 23. It's an entirely different (longer) development path for most of these guys.
Why should an old college senior who's 23 his first pro year "get to" have his whole mid 20's to develop his game the Intl player doesn't get? Making a strict "age based" rule IMO won't work, b/c guys are just "ready" at different ages. Look at Tatis' arrival date vs say, Cronenworth's. But going to 4/5/6 years for College/HS/Intl (<18 y.o.) respectively for Rule 5 would put Intl players more in "in line" with H.S. draftees, and solve the fundamental problem for R5.
#1153 · December 13, 2019, 1:26 pm
Not much of a question as to the development path as a player ... just where that player develops ... organization A vs. organization B. If they have potential they will be signed .... maybe by their current team or maybe a team with more interest in developing him.
The 16 year olds are already an issue even with Rule 5 ... eligible after 5 calendar years from signing (aside from some gaming of timing). 20-21 year old prospects in A ball have to be protected or risk being lost (sort of how we got Córdoba, Diaz, Torrens). That is a piece that should be modified no matter what the solution.
Since I am more focused on opening up the 40 man for preserving the more ML ready ... contributing types .... as an alternative would see a simple age cut-off .... any player not on the 40 man roster 5 days after the World Series who is 25 or older becomes a free agent. Typically that gives teams some period of control to develop prospects and recoup their investment and keep 4 years control on most college types but longer on the HS and International.
#1154 · December 13, 2019, 5:27 pm
25+ (or any age limit) just doesn't work IMO b/c the range of ages entering pro ball is just too wide: Many Intl guys are 16, Some college Seniors who maybe played a 5th yr with injury or something are possibly 23, maybe even 24. The young guys take more time to develop, the older guys are under the gun time wise, but all are just starting pro ball at some level.
It's a decent idea, just would lead to more whipsawing in Minors than there already is. Think the 6th year pre- Rule 5 for Intl draftees helps a lot, b/c that extra year reflects the typical year in DSL many start off with, then they're on level footing both age & level wise with HS draftees the following season in AZL.
Much ado about nothing, really, but think most teams GM's would definitely get behind the extra year control (no R5) on the Intl signees... potential to make Majors R5 obsolete...
#1155 · December 13, 2019, 5:45 pm
Taking a different tack; with a commitment of typically 50K, only 100K when you hit on a guy, I've never understood why more teams don't speculate more in/on Rule 5. 50 K is like a 15th round draft pick, but you're getting a granted "warty"/flawed in some way but talented guy WHO'S BEEN PLAYING PRO FOR 4-5 YEARS!
I'm glad Pads have a full/tight 40-man, and not saying they should have cleared a spot just to do this, since the keep is unlikely, but just seems weird given guaranteed $ being given to very borderline, older, mediocre FA esp P that a bottom 5 / clear rebuild team wouldn't "risk" 50K (?!?!) on Lake Bachar or Darius Valdez. Glad there weren't, but hard to believe it wouldn't make sense for multiple bad MLB teams with roster spots with weaker Farm systems...
#1156 · December 17, 2019, 7:19 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2019, 5:45 pmTaking a different tack; with a commitment of typically 50K, only 100K when you hit on a guy, I've never understood why more teams don't speculate more in/on Rule 5. 50 K is like a 15th round draft pick, but you're getting a granted "warty"/flawed in some way but talented guy WHO'S BEEN PLAYING PRO FOR 4-5 YEARS!
I'm glad Pads have a full/tight 40-man, and not saying they should have cleared a spot just to do this, since the keep is unlikely, but just seems weird given guaranteed $ being given to very borderline, older, mediocre FA esp P that a bottom 5 / clear rebuild team wouldn't "risk" 50K (?!?!) on Lake Bachar or Darius Valdez. Glad there weren't, but hard to believe it wouldn't make sense for multiple bad MLB teams with roster spots with weaker Farm systems...
There's some sort of honor code in effect. Which is why Preller drew such righteous indignation when he picked up Torrens, Diaz, and Cordoba.
As for what happens with the control. If you mess with the minor league control you're going to hurt players. If you mess with major league control you're going to hurt low revenue teams. The solution is to put a pre-arb pool together at say 2-3% of revenue and distribute that through a players only arbitration process.
#1157 · December 20, 2019, 5:56 am
Anybody know anything about Jeisson Rosario? Anybody seen him in person? Very interested in homegrown OF options.
I am hoping at least one of TT / Cordoba / Olivares debut at Petco at some point.
#1158 · December 20, 2019, 7:30 am
Quote from onlypads on December 20, 2019, 5:56 amAnybody know anything about Jeisson Rosario? Anybody seen him in person? Very interested in homegrown OF options.
I am hoping at least one of TT / Cordoba / Olivares debut at Petco at some point.
Cordoba already has! He is a "hidden" 'prospect' similar to Torrens. Doesn't count as one due to Rule 5 MLB time that 1st year, but he would very likely rank it top 20 prospects (Torrens top 10).
Really think we see both TT & Olivares this year.
#1159 · December 20, 2019, 8:10 am
Quote from onlypads on December 20, 2019, 5:56 amAnybody know anything about Jeisson Rosario? Anybody seen him in person? Very interested in homegrown OF options.
I am hoping at least one of TT / Cordoba / Olivares debut at Petco at some point.
Raw talent with upside. Plus defensively in CF ... takes the BB ... but has shown little power / on-base speed.
Important to remember he skipped the DSL ... direct to AZL then FW then LE in his 3 years. In A+ at 19 for all season. So after a good 2018 in FW ... seemed a little overmatched with the bat in LE last season.
So I still look at him as a fast tracked prospect who now at still the young age of 20 has a lot of time to refine his offense (be it in A+ or AA in 2020). An optimistic ETA should be 2022 (age 22) but more likely 2023 and if he hits at all ... his defense should get him to the ML as a reserve OF. If his offense develops ... maybe more.
#1160 · December 20, 2019, 10:09 am
Cool. Excited. Wait Cordoba already made an appearance? Totally missed that.