Quote from fenn68 on August 7, 2019, 10:28 am

Quote from David Nevin on August 7, 2019, 9:51 am

Can't see any way they move Arias off of SS.

But Edwards?

Gonna have to get him somewhere so he can see the field.....or trade him.

 

Depends on his bat ... if his OBP/SLG evolves into the blue chip level that can be impactful in the OF he moves (unless Tatis is moved if Arias is that superior as a SS).  Maybe heresy at this point but projection of Tatis with his bat, arm, athletic ability ... he could be an elite RF given some don't see him as an elite SS (but still young).

IF Arias and Edwards are THAT good and ML impactful ... combined with upgraded needs in the OF (and maybe 2B) they are probably worth more to the Padres playing on the 26 man (for 6 years) than what they may generate in a trade. If the Padres are open to re-imaging them (and Abrams) and with Trammel and Olivares on the come ... might actually get a few to develop and create the OF for the long term future.

Padres have to judge their real upsides ... still need to see them excel in AA before considering the alternatives ... so maybe 2021-22 some decisions are made.

IF the Padres are looking for longer term benefits (and control payroll) ... trading Renfroe - Margot - Jankowski - Naylor - and letting Myers go to FA (all arguably less than contender level OF and will be in arbitration and nearing FA) may evolve over the next couple of years creating a significant need for quality replacement pieces. Add that strategy would make payroll space to focus on extending Tatis (will be a big ticket item) and Paddack (another big ticket item). Locking down the home grown stars (spend the money there) than buying others' high ticket rejects may fit the long term strategy ... and fan engagement.

I am getting a bit ahead of my ski ... by a couple of years ... but an alternative path to develop the most dynamic 26 man roster.

Quote from Brian Connelly on August 7, 2019, 1:52 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 5, 2019, 12:10 pm

With only a month left in the minor league season ... looking more as though we will not be seeing any meaningful prospect promotions ... maybe a token move at the end of August.

Not sure the reason since it seems some players were worthy of an earlier bump and a bit a break from previous seasons.

Well, there's your bump with Abrams skipping level all the way up to Ft. Wayne.  Inevitable he was moving up, and that big move is justified.   Think Trammell might have blocked Cordoba to AA.  MAYBE Hudson Head to Tri-Cities.  But that's about all I see for 4 intertwined reasons:

1.  5 Pitchers on 40-man are rehabbing plus Mason Thompson (already back ) & Tom Cosgrove in Elsinore.  These guys all directly (Avila) or indirectly (J. Castillo) fill up upper levels of minors both while rehabbing & when activated.
2. All teams but Ft. Wayne (& DSL) are competing for playoffs.  Minor, but may not want to upend one team's chances of valuable playoff experience for all players to move a guy who might deserve it.
3. The volcano has already exploded!  By consensus beginning of year ranking, right now of top 35 prospects I have:  10 + Nix on Padres, only 2 @ AAA (France, A. Allen), 7 + Avila & Reggie Lawson @ AA, 7 + A. Espinoza @ Elsinore, only 3 (now 4 counting CJ Abrams) @ Ft Wayne, and only 2 pre-draft & Intl signing period in Short Season:  #35 RP Dylan Coleman who got sent back to EST immediately & now in AZL, and biggest disappointment of year #15 Tirso Ornelas in AZL.  At start of season, NONE of Pads top 35 were in Short season leagues...  The largest bubble of talent is at MLB now, followed by AA/A+
4. Extremely aggressive placement to begin with.  Of those 35 top prospects, #'s 27 -35 were all roughly age typical for their level assigned to at beginning of year.  But of the top guys #1-26, an amazing 18 of them were subjectively young for their starting level (counting Tatis of course, but also Paddack & Mejia on Pads O.D. roster since not at all certain entering ST).  9 of THOSE 15 not on Pads O.D roster have been promoted a level or more since year started; all to Pads except Gore & X.Edwards.

Bottom line:  Preller & Padres continue to push guys quickly through system, but that pace likely to now slow with the large wave of talent that has reached the Padres.   Top of head example:  If X. Edwards needs to work on developing a little power, doesn't another 1/2 season in Elsinore next year make more sense than hitting AA @ 20  y.o.  with 30 grade power?  Not displacing Tatis, so what' the rush?  Etc etc....

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 7, 2019, 2:55 pm

Did a cursory look at some of the moves with current Padres ... interesting observation (even if not supported with further research). Padres do make some mid-season moves (June - July) of better prospects but: 1. they seem to be pitchers; and 2) the move seems to be from A+ to AA.

I guess there is a developmental rationale in that strategy ... so, is consistent with the non bumps of Olivares and any of the FW pitchers. Makes the bump of Edwards even more interesting ... a move going against their history.

On Edwards, expect that they will have him on some off-season program to add to his strength and maybe work a bit on his swing. This is his 1st full season at 19 ... a lot of raw talent to work with. If they do that, doubt developing a more power profile is any better in AMA or LE. What I would not is to hold him back just for the lack of punch in his bat ... challenge him at the higher level and maximize his core hitting skills. Now, although different than Sean Burroughs, don't think it helped his career by trying to turn his successful profile into one of more power (he did have other issues to be fair). I think it was Dick Williams who wanted T. Gwynn to change to get more power ... I am OK with how Gwynn turned out with limited power.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 7, 2019, 7:29 pm

With Patino going to Amarillo that team is “stacked”!

With 4 of our top 6 prospects.

If Trammel has found his stroke as it appears they could be unstoppable in the playoffs.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 7, 2019, 8:26 pm

Quote from David Nevin on August 7, 2019, 7:29 pm

With Patino going to Amarillo that team is “stacked”!

With 4 of our top 6 prospects.

If Trammel has found his stroke as it appears they could be unstoppable in the playoffs.

 

 

 

Interesting problem if SD in 2020 ... if they don’t want the top prospects in the PCL, especially if they have not played a full season in AA, and they are not ready to bump the “veterans” off the Padres SP staff. As it stands, contending for AMA next year to start the season:

Gore (20) Padres #1 / MLB #3

Patino (19) Padres #3 / MLB #33

Morejon (20) Padres #7 / MLB #87

Baez (23) Padres #10 ... if the Padres want him to go back to starting

Bolanos (22) Padres #18

Lawson (22) Padres #25

Avila (22) Padres #28

That is a young and talented group all looking good for AA and even Baez is young for the league but just seems “old” by comparison to the highly talented 19-20 year olds.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 8, 2019, 5:16 am

Did some looking at MLBPipeline Padre middle INF / OF top prospects’ skill ratings to see potential options for 2B/OF in the future considering position changes as feasible.

Used Tatis as a reference point ... as a “70” based on his hitting / power skills ... none of the prospects sit that high (for now). Now it is unrealistic to expect any of them to be the next Tatis but some above average skill ratings are a solid basis for plus major league success ... better than an “average” MLB starter.

Since I am bias to having the hit skill be the cover charge for ML success ... looking good. Urias is a 70 (we will see) but at “55” sit Trammel, Abrams, Edwards, and Miller. Then the second half of 2019 has shown production from Arias and Olivares that far outpace a “45” rating.

Like defense ... Tatis was a “55”. Arias and Edwards are “60” ... now that should be a quality DP combo. The others are “55” except Abrams (a “50” but as a SS). So that is pretty positive.

How about running .. this one takes a higher profile since watching what Tatis does for changing the game (and fan excitement) with this base running .... he was rated a “50” (puts the rating system in question I guess). Abrams is a “75” ... Edwards “70” ... Trammel “65” ... Miller and Olivares “60”. Get a few of these guys at the top of the line-up in front of Tatis, Machado, Hosmer will make for a compelling watch.

All are young and athletic and could suggest that the Padres are heading to being counter to the HR/high K rate move in MLB. Have seen comments that the Padres farm system is running with some of the lowest K rates in each league.

Is the new Padre formula pitching, speed, and defense ... and of course good OBP ... and devaluing the HR?

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 8, 2019, 7:14 am

I think Tatis's "improvement" in running is more because of his instincts and decision making.

He's fast...don't get me wrong,but he's smarter than he is fast.

Alot of fast guys aren't good baserunners and vice versa.

That rating shouldn't be "speed" ......it should be "baserunning".

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 8, 2019, 7:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 7, 2019, 8:26 pm

Quote from David Nevin on August 7, 2019, 7:29 pm

With Patino going to Amarillo that team is “stacked”!

With 4 of our top 6 prospects.

If Trammel has found his stroke as it appears they could be unstoppable in the playoffs.

 

 

 

Interesting problem if SD in 2020 ... if they don’t want the top prospects in the PCL, especially if they have not played a full season in AA, and they are not ready to bump the “veterans” off the Padres SP staff. As it stands, contending for AMA next year to start the season:

Gore (20) Padres #1 / MLB #3

Patino (19) Padres #3 / MLB #33

Morejon (20) Padres #7 / MLB #87

Baez (23) Padres #10 ... if the Padres want him to go back to starting

Bolanos (22) Padres #18

Lawson (22) Padres #25

Avila (22) Padres #28

That is a young and talented group all looking good for AA and even Baez is young for the league but just seems “old” by comparison to the highly talented 19-20 year olds.

 

Looking at this list...along with the probability we still add a TOR starter to go along with the 6 guys in the current rotation,I think I'd prefer to keep Baez in the major league bullpen rather than putting him back to AA.

He appears to be head and shoulders more prepared for this role than Morejon...whether it's his "stuff" or his "head" or both I'm not sure.

But either way we need to win major league games next year.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 8, 2019, 7:19 am

Very happy to see Trammel hitting...even if small sample.

I wish Reyes was as well but at this point we need to concern ourselves with Trammel.