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Luis Urias
#41 · November 28, 2019, 6:37 am
I saw this comment, don't know if it's accurate ...
Davies had massive luck last year, (3.5 ERA, 4.5 fip)
#43 · November 28, 2019, 7:49 am
Quote from LynchMob on November 28, 2019, 6:37 amI saw this comment, don't know if it's accurate ...
Davies had massive luck last year, (3.5 ERA, 4.5 fip)
Not sure that massive luck is the right conclusion considering his ERA over his entire career is below his FIP. That is over a lot of starts.
I will take his “luck” if he maintains his career 3.95 ERA .. and still think that should be better by being in PETCO v Miller Park. Plus, little doubt he will be an upgrade over Lauer over the next two years. It is the upgrade that has value.
Since the game is one of runs scored / prevented on the field ... not in a theoretical computer model ... and since my view of the fielding metrics is one of skepticism ... I am fine with a pitcher with his ERA being an upgrade to the Padres rotation.
If the Padres are going to contend they need these “small” upgrades along with those few “big” moves.
#44 · November 28, 2019, 8:47 am
I will add that in his career, Davies:
At Miller Park (home): 61 starts (333 innings) 4.65 ERA
Not at Miller Park (away): 50 starts (281 innings) 3.04 ERA
Over 4 years and 50 starts that is a good sample size for his AWAY performance that can’t be discounted for “luck”. He will be a massive upgrade to the staff when Miller is deleted and PETCO is added ... not TOR but way better than Lauer.
Current stats guys don’t like soft tossers who don’t miss bats but Keuchel did fine ... actually Ryu now only has about a 90MPH FB (Davies about 88MPH) and he did fine. Bottom line Davies has the track record of run prevention which is what is important not “style points” for K / swing and miss / velocity.
#45 · November 28, 2019, 11:07 am
I am liking Davies more and more since I have been watching him pitch. If Grisham works out this can be a very good trade for us. Not exciting but the kind of thing that winning teams do, like you said fenn. It is a bit of a risk but all trades are. I am going to miss Urias but oh well, I am over it.
#46 · November 28, 2019, 5:00 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 28, 2019, 7:49 amlittle doubt he will be an upgrade over Lauer over the next two years. It is the upgrade that has value.
Is there? and is that worth the 15m over the next two years? We could just not pitch Lauer at Coors and get roughly the same result.
#47 · November 28, 2019, 5:23 pm
Quote from LynchMob on November 28, 2019, 6:37 amI saw this comment, don't know if it's accurate ...
Davies had massive luck last year, (3.5 ERA, 4.5 fip)
So you are in the Tony Gwynn was one of the luckiest players in MLB history since that os how he is viewed by Most new cybernetic pencil necks..
To me Tony knew how to redirect a ball .. Bloop a ball ..find the hole in the field that I don't think you could shift him in todays game and lucky or not dude had a knack for hitting the ball where they weren't .. Davies paints corners goes inside and outside up and down on the strike zone more often than most.. Allows less hits than innings pitch ..keeps walks on the low side and still strikes out around 10 every 15 innings .. With his away splits and Petco (say 2.50 at Home) I can easily see 2.80 ERA as a SDP in 2020.. And that my friends is ACE type "results" cybermetrics be damn... Sure he ain't a huge inning eater but he still abive avg at 5.55 innings per start.. If he comes in to be our 4th or 5th that is one hell of a pickup.. Lauer wasn't going to be in our top 6 in 2020 or beyond.. And even if you take away Lauer vs LAD and Coors best and worst he still be around 4.20 ERA
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Brian Connelly
#48 · November 28, 2019, 6:26 pm
Tony Gwynn could absolutely guide the ball. Just because people cannot explain it using FIP does not mean it was not real. His whole career could not have been luck, unless he was using voodoo like Pedro Serrano. Davies gets consistent results. It doesn't matter how he does it, he does it. I am sure he will pitch well for us.
#49 · November 29, 2019, 7:10 am
Quote from JasonE135 on November 28, 2019, 6:26 pmTony Gwynn could absolutely guide the ball. Just because people cannot explain it using FIP does not mean it was not real. His whole career could not have been luck, unless he was using voodoo like Pedro Serrano. Davies gets consistent results. It doesn't matter how he does it, he does it. I am sure he will pitch well for us.
Also some pitches "Bear" up when they put runners on.. Is not like Davies was "Lucky" in 2019.. He is been "Lucky" over his entire 600IP career.. Thats when "Luck" needs to be changed to "skill".. Todays metrics seem to sell short guys that don't have "stuff" but can pitch and have tremendous control and sequencing
#50 · November 29, 2019, 7:18 am
Most successful "non" strikeout pitchers will look to be "lucky" because so many balls are put into play.
We need to add a good defender at 2b and the corner outfield spots(Renfroe good last year but real?).
I'm sure Davies stats would show a lot of "soft" contact as opposed to hard hit balls.
I think that's part of the reason AJ wanted him...pitching Davies right after opponents saw Paddack and Lamet could prove troublesome for their hitters.
Mixing a soft tosser,as long as he's an effective one,in between hard throwers can certainly be effective.