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LHH OPTIONS FOR 2020
#61 · September 25, 2019, 6:23 pm
Quote from fenn68 on September 24, 2019, 9:43 amCommented before that Houston will not deal either Tucker or Brantley .... Reddick is their odd man out (likely at a reasonable trade price). Both are have only 1 year remaining but Brantley is hitting in the heart of the line-up with a 315/377/504 slash line for one of the best teams in the AL .. not giving that up for peanuts while trying to win again in 2020. Plus he carries a $16MM contact. In the unlikely chance they were willing to move 1 year / $16MM of Brantley ... the ask would be probably Paddack.
In Boston the trade pecking order is more likely #1 Bradley, #2 Betts, #3 Benitendi who has the longest control at the lowest cost .... keep in mind that Boston will have a focus of getting under the luxury tax level to avoid some serious penalty as a repeat offender. I have Betts as a trade candidate given he has made it clear the will go to FA ... has only one more control year and that will be in the mid $20MM range via arbitration. A lot will depend on the new GM/ownership strategy and the idea they can run down NYY or a wild card spot.
Nimmo or Conforto may be available but not on the cheap ... as I said on Syndergaard the METS are legit contenders so the return will have to be immediate impact to improve their chances. Their biggest need is RP and a legit CF (they would like NOT to pick up Lagares’ $9MM option) ... so, Yates would probably get one. If not Yates then next up is probably a gamble on Munoz plus Margot and maybe another RP such as Baez. No reason for the better team (METS) to sell them cheap.
Riddick has as much trade value as CJ Crom did last yr... DFA... He doesn't move the needle vs Franchy/Naylor so why bother .. We can't just add to add .. We need a difference maker in offense.. (We (AJP) were rumored to be in on a significant OF mlb stud at the deadline, who ??? ) Apperantely went down to the wired and it didnt get done .. So maybe AJP revisits that same trade in the offseason...
This team doesnt need a Reddick it needs a Brantley a Lindor.. A Betts.. It could get away with a Benintendi, Joc or Tucker.. Anything less and I'll include Inciarte and Eaton in that category is just morr of the same with hope of striking gold.. This ain't the time for games no no.. Its time for a TOR and a legit BAT (lefty or righty) that can hit RHP.. Quality over quantity this off-season by spending quantity $$ or quantity specs to get it
#62 · September 25, 2019, 7:03 pm
I believe Padres ownership and Front Office follow a different business plan than you do. Your plan sounds like the Yankees plan. It works if you are willing to ride the edge of the salary cap. A TOR and a premium bat would cost $50-$60 million per year combined. I doubt we are willing to pay that. As far as prospects; to get premium quality would cost us a Gore, Latino and/or Campusano and Trammell. You may be happy trading 5 years of big time production for a 1 or 2 year shot, but that is not a workable long term business plan. Ownership already gave out a $300 million contract. We cannot expect that every year.
#63 · September 25, 2019, 8:38 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on September 25, 2019, 7:03 pmI believe Padres ownership and Front Office follow a different business plan than you do. Your plan sounds like the Yankees plan. It works if you are willing to ride the edge of the salary cap. A TOR and a premium bat would cost $50-$60 million per year combined. I doubt we are willing to pay that. As far as prospects; to get premium quality would cost us a Gore, Latino and/or Campusano and Trammell. You may be happy trading 5 years of big time production for a 1 or 2 year shot, but that is not a workable long term business plan. Ownership already gave out a $300 million contract. We cannot expect that every year.
Nope... I mean we can get Benintendi from Boston if we take on $32+ mil David Price.. And we swap Myers +++++++ to do it.. Only costs us net $15 mil..there .. Then we go and sign MadBum who I think is going to experience a revival in 2020 ..dude is relatively young and his 2019 jumbers werent bad at all ..he likely signs 4 -60 type deal ($15 mil per) like Keuchel was looking for.. Both Price and MadBum have 1 maybe 2 TOR level seasons left.. I just added our lefty bat .. And 2 Solid Vets with TOR updide on any given season.. For net $30 mil increase or right around 120-130 payroll which is league avg..
What else would the Pads have to give in such a deal.. Probably Lucchesi + Q and Arias along with Myers... Not out of the realm... Keuchel (buy low) + Lindor could be another package deal AJP could look at... Lester + Bryant.. Darvish + Bryant .. Other possibilities ... I am sure AJP will find that BAT and that TOR type arm even if it is 2 former TORs as per my example.. He ain't trading Trammell or Gore.. Patino for the right piece..Urias ditto..
#64 · September 25, 2019, 9:22 pm
Price is not a TOR anymore. We would be better off with our young guys. Benintendi I would be the only player of value in that trade. We would be lucky to get the two of them together straight up. (Actually I think that would be a horrible idea too) Boston will not take on Myers contract. We can get a past their prime overpriced TOR for Lucchesie and Quantrill but why bother? Nobody will take on Myers contract to get those guys, much less throw in quality players along with it. And I love both Quantrill and Urias! Other teams don't value them like I do. You can't cheat the system. Any players we are willing to lose will not get us a high quality return. We traded Franmil Reyes for Trammell. So what can we expect for a Trammell or a Patino? A Reyes.
#65 · September 26, 2019, 5:17 am
Quote from JasonE135 on September 25, 2019, 9:22 pmPrice is not a TOR anymore. We would be better off with our young guys. Benintendi I would be the only player of value in that trade. We would be lucky to get the two of them together straight up. (Actually I think that would be a horrible idea too) Boston will not take on Myers contract. We can get a past their prime overpriced TOR for Lucchesie and Quantrill but why bother? Nobody will take on Myers contract to get those guys, much less throw in quality players along with it. And I love both Quantrill and Urias! Other teams don't value them like I do. You can't cheat the system. Any players we are willing to lose will not get us a high quality return. We traded Franmil Reyes for Trammell. So what can we expect for a Trammell or a Patino? A Reyes.
You do realize Myers normal career avg year is a bargain at 20 mil.. And I think Myers can put up a .260/.340/.500 type season or 2 with 30/30/30 HR / 2B/ SB type numbers .. Especially in a ballpark like Boston's
#66 · September 26, 2019, 6:18 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 26, 2019, 5:17 amQuote from JasonE135 on September 25, 2019, 9:22 pmPrice is not a TOR anymore. We would be better off with our young guys. Benintendi I would be the only player of value in that trade. We would be lucky to get the two of them together straight up. (Actually I think that would be a horrible idea too) Boston will not take on Myers contract. We can get a past their prime overpriced TOR for Lucchesie and Quantrill but why bother? Nobody will take on Myers contract to get those guys, much less throw in quality players along with it. And I love both Quantrill and Urias! Other teams don't value them like I do. You can't cheat the system. Any players we are willing to lose will not get us a high quality return. We traded Franmil Reyes for Trammell. So what can we expect for a Trammell or a Patino? A Reyes.
You do realize Myers normal career avg year is a bargain at 20 mil.. And I think Myers can put up a .260/.340/.500 type season or 2 with 30/30/30 HR / 2B/ SB type numbers .. Especially in a ballpark like Boston's
Myers is closer to an $8-10MM player than $20MM. Past 3 years a slash line of 244/323/443 ... wRC+ 103 (not so good for a corner OF) ... 2.9 WAR total / average of 1.0 per season.
The frustration with Myers is that I agree he still has the POTENTIAL to justify his contract and deliver a 2-3 WAR per season (as he did in 2016). However as he turns 29 that POTENTIAL is getting harder to turn into production and much harder to gamble on. Just don’t see other teams taking that gamble with his contract. Good chance the Padres would move Myers to anyone who would take his contract for a PTNL.
Odds are that the Padres take the rebound risk with Myers in 2020 (rather than eat some of the contract) .... given the overall lack of offense in their 2020 OF .... if 2020 does not workout then move on but then (unless he really tanks) a better chance to deal him with less owed on the contract.
Hope the new manager (with the front office) create some stability for Myers and just sit him in LF and stop moving him around. Create a singular focus .... and if he can’t handle that they will have to accept that his personality will not allow him to achieve his potential.
#67 · September 26, 2019, 9:16 am
You do realize Myers normal career avg year is a bargain at 20 mil.. And I think Myers can put up a .260/.340/.500 type season or 2 with 30/30/30 HR / 2B/ SB type numbers .. Especially in a ballpark like Boston's
Henry I've gotta agree with FENN here... Wil's last 3 years are more of an 8-10 MM/yr value than 20 MM.
Your projection is realistic for BA & OBP just a few points higher than his best as a Padre, but a 10% increase in his BEST slug year is a lot to ask, even with the more favorable home park... not insane, but certainly a ceiling an acquiring team is going to hope for, not pay for.
For how maddeningly inconsistent his performance is within each season, Myers' 5 years as a Padre from the outside looking in are a model of consistency: BA: .238 -.259, OBP .318 - .336, SLUG .414 - .464. This is his worst year IMO despite relative health b/c the dramatic rise in K's is terrifying and has directly led to worst BA & SLUG as a Padre.
Myers' recent/current dizzy/fainting spells might be the nail in the coffin of an offseason trade this year. One more question mark breaking the camel's back?
Most important takeaway to me is that Wil's 2016-17 healthy Pads campaigns are absolute best it's reasonable to hope for as a full time player: .250 / .340 / .460 .800 OPS would be best as Padre.
#68 · September 26, 2019, 11:02 am
I agree with fenn as well. I think our best chance with Myers is to give him LF and just let him make it his. I believe all of this rotating of players and lack of regular playing time has held down several of our players averages. Mostly Myers and Urias. Myers has had some pretty good years, he could have a few more.
#69 · October 21, 2019, 7:23 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 20, 2019, 6:10 pmMeet your left handed 32yr old ++ defense and Speed with really good OBP
Japanese FA Shogo Akiyama... No posting needed he is FA
.307/.395/.477. .872 OPS in JPN this yr
Youre guy just became available, officially. Not a great basestealer though.
#70 · October 21, 2019, 8:16 pm
All I really hope for this offseason is this guy (Shogo Akiyama) and Corey Dickerson for the offense. I think those two are all we need to take our offense to another level. They are both CONSISTENT bats. They can keep the team going when the other bats slump. Keep the offense like it was in the first half, as opposed to the second. That and the TOR starter that everybody wants is all that is needed to get us to the playoffs next year. In my opinion.