Quote from LynchMob on March 7, 2019, 1:27 pm

FG looks at "dead money" across the league ... Dodgers at the top with what looks like $43M ... Padres at $23M ...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-teams-with-the-most-dead-money-in-2019/

Padres at #4 ...

Jedd Gyorko	Padres	Cardinals	$5 M
Kazuhisa Makita Padres $1.9 M
Clayton Richard	Padres	Blue Jays	$1.5 M

Phil Hughes	Padres	None	$7.25 M
Hector Olivera	Padres	None	$7.5 M

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 7, 2019, 1:45 pm

Padres dead money will be dropping off just as our window becomes fully open.

#1 Starter in free agency next year?

Or will we even have that need?

I guess you "always" have a need for a true #1 but will it be the best use of the money with :

Richards,Lamet/Luchessi/Paddack/Allen/Quantrill/Lauer/Nix and all the other young guys one more season closer.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 8, 2019, 8:26 am

Quote from David Nevin on March 7, 2019, 1:45 pm

Padres dead money will be dropping off just as our window becomes fully open.

#1 Starter in free agency next year?

Or will we even have that need?

I guess you "always" have a need for a true #1 but will it be the best use of the money with :

Richards  #2/3 Innings limited,  Lamet  #3/4 Innings limited,  Luchessi  #4, Paddack #3-4 MAYBE #2 if can get curveball to avg/avg+, Allen #4, Quantrill #4-5/RP, Lauer #4-5, Nix #4-6/RP  and all the other young guys one more season closer.

 

 

YES!   #1 SP's would improve ANY of the 30 teams they joined; even the W.S. caliber teams --as we aspire to be.

Not throwing a wet blanket above on projections for these guys... just using what BA or MLB.com project.  I think it's a fair statement to say:  "It's extremely likely we have 2-3 long term guys for rotation out of this group.  It's conceivable, but highly unlikely that any of them are a long term #1 SP.  Also highly unlikley that our rotation 3 years from now is 5 of these guys".

The Dead $ situation summarizes pretty easily:  GAIN 15 MM in 2020, but LOSE 10 MM in salary increases to Myers (mostly) & Garrett Richards.   So a net gain of 5 MM over top 5 salaries.  I don't see the $$ to buy a #1 in FA for 25-30 MM+/yr.   Still think trade to get a guy for now 2 - 2.5 years is the most viable option.  Hope Farm has a great year creating multiple great trade chips to add to some guys off MLB roster...

Before O.D. possible but very unlikely, > chance at deadline--even if non-contending this year.  Even > chance in offseason.

Quote from fenn68 on March 8, 2019, 9:50 am

Padres are at about $115MM in 2019 and 2020 should be about the same with dead money dropping off to cover Myers' increase. 2021 becomes the next window where more money drops off for Olivera ($8.5MM) and FA Richards ($8.5MM) and Kinsler ($3.75MM less option buy-out). That will have some arbitration offsets from the likes of Hedges, Margot, Renfroe, and a few others.

So ... depending how 2019 goes ... next winter's decision on adding salary via trade or FA may be a product of a good 2019 leading to an aggressive add to contend in 2020 OR 2019 that leaves them aiming for 2021 and therefore more focused on adding next winter if they can get the guy they want at the right price.

The Padres are at the point where their dead money will not be a future issue ... unless they do something to create more.

Quote from fenn68 on March 8, 2019, 10:16 am

I think the best option to get a top of the rotation arm is via trade ... partly since there really are not that many FA on there that fit that bill and the few that are will require a long term big money deal ... and for aging SP that is high risk. If they go long term it should be a position player who is in his 20s. Probably would focus "long term" money on leaving room to extend the likes of  Tatis, Paddack, and the other high ceiling prospects at the appropriate time.

Next winter (if they get to FA) you have: Cole (29); Bumgarner (30) ... if SF does not swoop in plus was last year's injuries a peak into the future ... Sale (31) ... in discussion for an extension with Boston (and they can pay) plus had his injury issues last season .... Wheeler (30) good but not really proven top of the rotation ... and IF he opts out of his remaining 4 years / $100MM Strasburg (31) but not likely in the recent FA market. After that it is just wishful thinking if you are looking for a top of the rotation guy.

The past two winters seem to be moving the players / teams to doing extensions earlier and keeping the better options off the FA market in their prime ... reduces the supply for all 30 teams.

So trade seems to be the preferred option since the Padres do have a ton of young assets and the room to pick up payroll but for a shorter duration reducing risk. Still a function of who goes on the market.

At the core though ... Padres still have to get critical mass for SP from the farm ... and by 2021-22 would hope Gore, Paddack, Patino, Morejon, Allen provide that (or one of the other options) requiring at most one stabilizing veteran.

That "future" does suggest that running the "lesser" options for SP out there in 2019-20 to see who survives and who gets moved. Never really know if one of them is Kluber 2.0 even though most don't see them as anything more the #4-5 SP at best. IF .. big IF ... the Padres are in contention at the trade deadline, they have the assets to make a move but worry about that IF that happens.

Keep an eye on Cleveland and Kluber ... everyone is calling for another cakewalk to the AL Central title but without a ML quality OF and any key injury (e.g. Ramirez or Lindor) they could fade quickly ... no real bench or minor league prospects to backfill. Add they they are still in a financial bind. Not out of the question we see a fire sale at the trade deadline (or maybe next winter).

Quote from LynchMob on March 8, 2019, 10:30 am

BP looks at How Teams are Maximizing Minor-League Options ...

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/47685/expanding-the-zone-how-teams-are-maximizing-minor-league-options/

I think the bottom line is as Andrew Friedman says ... "Quantity is just as important as quality in today’s baseball."

And I like the (future) depth that our farm system appears to be creating!

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 8, 2019, 10:57 am

Even via trade we still have to pay the Ace.

So is it really better to give up prospects AND $20 mil per season over just signing the FA option?

Maybe Strasburg would prefer to come play in San Diego even if it's for the same $$ he would be opting out of?

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on March 8, 2019, 12:03 pm

Quote from David Nevin on March 8, 2019, 10:57 am

Even via trade we still have to pay the Ace.

So is it really better to give up prospects AND $20 mil per season over just signing the FA option?

Maybe Strasburg would prefer to come play in San Diego even if it's for the same $$ he would be opting out of?

 

 

Sort of depends on the player / contract / prospects. Not forgetting the FA or trade target has to be on the market ... not a given at any point.

To be clear a team is best served by developing their own ace (or two or three).

The advantage of a trade is the "ace" is normally on a shorter contract (2-3 years) and usually somewhat under market. WASH just paid Corbin for 6 years / AAV $23MM at age 30 ... and that is after only his 2018 being "ace" quality. Kershaw extended at $31MM/yr. "Ace" FA are not cheap.

Kluber for 3 years / AAV about $17.5 ... and the mix of DeGrom, Snydergaard, Stroman, et. al. follow similar control / cost profiles. So the question to any team is the value of the prospects to get the "ace" quality for a reduced cost and the lower risk in a shorter contract?

If I am dealing Tatis and Gore ... not good. If I am dealing Potts, A.Allen, Baez might make sense if that bumps the team into legit contention. Situational and the FO needs to be flexible in attacking the need for an "ace" ... if they don't develop one themselves.

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 8, 2019, 12:08 pm

My guess is the HUGE commitments just made to Hosmer and Machado signal that the Padres not only "want" to develop their

own "Ace/s" but expect too.

They know our biggest need(even before signing MM) is pitching....yet they have only added an injured Richards.

I'm not saying they wouldn't trade or add a frontline starter but I'm thinking they are really counting on not having too.