Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2019, 8:37 am

Any chance the other owners and agents are getting fed up with the PHILs inaction after publicly proclaiming they had stupid money to spend which lead the media to think they could go big time and sign BOTH Harper and Machado. Yet, if they have made offers, they are apparently low balling (in the agents' minds).

From PHIL perspective they see little competition for either (and clearly no team is offering what the agents want) ... and if they don't really care which they get ... why pick one go high against themselves. Wait for the agents to field an offer they will take from another team then just ask for the right to match / exceed. Result they don't budge.

Agents on the other hand see them as the golden goose of money ... believe they will get the max from PHIL ... and going second if the other goes to another team just puts pressure on PHIL to up their offer. Result they don't budge. Throw in some agent ego too.

The other teams are "interested" but probably not enough to go and make the big offer. More content to lose the bidding or play for the one that does not sign with PHIL ... hoping the PHIL signing is first. Result they don't budge.

What is budging is ST and opening day ... so one would think decisions should happen in the 6 weeks. Maybe more so with the other major FA who are waiting on the fallout in PHIL so they can share in PHILs generosity. Keuchel, Kimbrel, Moustakas, Gonzalez ... all potential PHIL candidates.

Quote from TatisJr on February 1, 2019, 11:29 am

This is just a crazy situation the Padres find themselves. Machado fits perfectly in terms of team need and one would think he could be had at a slightly (cheaper) rate than Harper. You have Harpers camp and Machados camp likely waiting each other out, not wanting to be the first to blink. Machado clearly prefers a big market east coast team or to play with his buddies in Chicago over San Diego. I think Manny wants the big money and the big spotlight.  Bryce knows the spotlight will follow him wherever he goes. Philly likely has the biggest wallet of the teams involved in the Bryce/Manny sweepstakes, but can only afford one of the two stars. Harper can likely get more money from Philly than SD, but his preference seems to be out West. Harper is much more marketable and has the name recognition to bring people to the ballpark. Even if you don’t follow baseball you still know Bryce Harper. The Padres relationship with Boras is extremely important to the future of the franchise. This is just my guess, but I imagine preliminary figures tossed  from Pads were higher than White Sox in  aav or length while Philly is waiting on Harper decision before they extend their final formal offer to Machado.  If Harper doesn’t go to Philly, Machado knows Philly will turn to him and offfer more than the Pads or White Sox. Harper/Boras are likely hoping SD can get creative and come close to Phillys numbers. It’s been hard to focus on regular life with all this Machado/Harper daydreaming.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 1, 2019, 11:52 am

How often is everyone else checking MLBTraderumors or their preferred rumor site?

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 1, 2019, 12:06 pm

The delay in signings this year & last reminds me a lot of the stupid "old" draft process where they had till end of August deadline to sign, so all the top draftees ended up missing basically the entire first year they signed.  They moved the signing deadline up, and lo & behold, everyone signs by that deadline now; problem solved.

Free agency is obviously way more complex, and guys have always signed late just before or even into Spring Training... but those have typically been more marginal 1 year or Minors contract guys.  SOMETHING (can argue what combo of factors exactly till cows come home) has clearly changed; MLB "major" FA just not working like NFL or NBA where the biggest FA go first.

I wonder what agents & players and owners/GM's would think about some type of agreed upon deadline/s for deals of different lengths; longest term (and likely highest $) first (Dec 31st?) with any deal over 1 year maybe a Jan 31st deadline, leaving only 1 yr/minors deal guys to go into Feb not knowing where they're going yet...

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 1, 2019, 12:07 pm

Quote from David Nevin on February 1, 2019, 11:52 am

How often is everyone else checking MLBTraderumors or their preferred rumor site?

 

Too often

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2019, 12:49 pm

In part both sides understand that the season does not start until April and are using that as a negotiation tool ... I guess Boras started it years ago with his top clients ... and it worked for him since he is (was) very good in reading the market. I guess if it worked for Boras ... other agents followed.

Meanwhile, the owners moved to a new game plan. In part the transition from one "all powerful" owner who really made the big money calls on his gut to "group owners" (not one person's call) and the evolution of the analytical front offices that may look at good economic decisions player by player for the long haul rather than short run potential winning. Sort of the better to lose (and not spend) than to be mediocre (while spending money) ... only get in the spending game if a legit contender. Throw in the greater importance of modeled projections than past performance just alters the price point for owners vs. the expectations of the players / agents based on how business was done in the past.

It would seem as though the smartest agents got the best deal out of the block in the past two years and have not played the waiting game ... maybe they just saw their clients worth in the new market place and jumped while the money was on the table.

Has to be frustrating for the players / agents know their is a lot of money there to be had but they are now trying to sell their clients to front offices that are working on a very new set of values. Actually it is the agents that may have to adjust their game plan (and their player evaluations).

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 1, 2019, 5:22 pm

A big strike against Pads:  Even if you sell Harper (& his wife) or Machado on SD & make a 'good enough' offer, does the player & his agent REALLY believe Pads will have more payroll capacity to go get more help, which they ARE going to need... not really talking about this season, thinking 2-3 years down the line; some of the best P prospects will just be arriving; can't expect them to be #1's from the get go...

Any player taking a deep look like Harper, it's obvious how good the Farm system is (definitely influenced Hosmer who really only had 2 choices last year).  But are Pads REALLY ready to commit to playing with big boys when they are good trading prospects for a 20-30 MM #1 SP stuck on a bad team?

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 2, 2019, 5:49 am

If the team is competing with Harper(or Machado),Hosmer and all the youngsters then they could easily still add a high priced rental at the deadline or free agents on 1-2 year deals.

It is true they won’t be signing another $200 mil player.

But adding at the deadline(ala Kevin Brown) would certainly still be possible.

Plus....I suspect the Farm system won’t just stop producing good players.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2019, 8:54 am

Took a quick guess at the Padres projected payroll in the "do nothing"  scenario for the next 5 years:

2019: $85MM ... then Myers gets his increase but that is all offset by some of the dead money going away and Stammen going FA;

2020: $85MM ... then Padres jettison Richards, Kinsler, Yates, Erlin, and the last of the dead money with some offset for arbitration and assuming the replacements are internal a decrease of about $20MM;

2021: $65MM ... then little changes except arbitration decisions of maybe $10MM;

2022: $75MM ... then Myers is a FA, Hosmer opts out plus more arbitration decisions and the Padres start all over;

2023: $35MM (or less).

Most important is the key prospects have to deliver (e.g. Tatis, Urias, Paddack, etc) at low cost during this period. By 2021-22 the prospects should be here and producing (probably the timeframe for real contention). So IF they added Harper at $30MM per .... 2021 and 2022 would still have room to add "costly" ML talent if needed for the push in those years.

Note that in 2023 ... under the assumption the hot talent lava is still hot ML talent .... that should be when long term extensions for Tatis et. al. need to be the priority.

IT COULD WORK!