Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2021, 3:50 am

I would not have taken the LAA route with Syndergaard … way too expensive a gamble.

They had the money ($130MM payroll before the signing) … now $151MM and still room to add a major arm.

Word is that they wanted to go high ceiling on a one year deal and were willing to pay to get that one year contract. Had to make the deal quickly otherwise Syndergaard would have taken the QO from the METS.

Trout and Rendon are big money long term but both Upton (also big money) and Syndergaard will come off the books next winter … leaving a lot of money for next year’s corp of FA and … critically extending Otani who will be in his 3rd arb and heading to FA after 2023 season … that will be MEGA money. Guessing that Trout, Rendon, and Otani will end up costing over $100MM/year for years and years, so may not want go long term on a large contracts for pitchers unless it is a slam dunk top of the rotation … not sure that arm is in this year’s crop and the better ones this year are pushing for long term deals.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 17, 2021, 8:09 am

I get that….. but  if they don’t get 150 innings from Syndergaard and miss the playoffs again they’ve wasted another year of Trout.

Guess we’ll see what else they do.

Seems they could have at least got a lower risk arm for $21 mil.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2021, 8:29 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 17, 2021, 8:09 am

I get that….. it if they don’t get 150 innings from Syndergaard and miss the playoffs again they’ve wasted another year of Trout.

Guess we’ll see what else they do.

Seems they could have at least got a lower risk arm for $21 mil.

 

Heard Rosenthal speculate that they are going with a 6 man rotation to keep Otani's innings down to under 150 and that works (hopefully) with the level that they see for Syndergaard.

Should add the LAA may have to go multi-year to retain Iglesias as their closer since he will reject the $18.5MM QO (or get a plus alternative). Then add to the SP ... maybe not the "elite" for mega money but not the low end off the discard pile ... and in this market that still is not low cost for mediocrity.

I don't like the gamble but a role the dice to potentially get #1 type to pair with Otani maybe be a better gamble than getting two mid to lower rotation arms for $10-15MM each for multiple years.

What seems to be off the table for LAA is a big money, long-term deal for a SP ... at least one in this FA market.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on November 17, 2021, 8:32 am

I don't understand the Angels at all!

They've been desperate for pitching for years and never seem able to get anything.Hell, look what Preller got last year! Don't tell me it's not possible.

I feel for Halo fans....and Mike Trout!

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2021, 3:52 pm

If you did not like the Snydergaard deal … now you have Verlander returning to Houston for $25MM/1 year with a PLAYER option for the following season for another $25MM. So, effectively he just got $50MM guaranteed over 2 years with an opt out.

WAS a great pitcher but 38 coming off TJ … 6 innings in 2020 and zero innings in 2021.

I would bet he comes back fine BUT not sure to his past levels … and worth $50MM / 2 years.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on November 17, 2021, 10:49 pm

The contracts for Syndergaard and especially Verlander are stunning, given their injury history for the former and the age for the later coming off of TJ.  It could be that both the Angels and Astros see their window of opportunity for a championship closing in 2-3 years, so they want to make a push now by gambling on these two arms.   Big gamblers but obviously these teams have lots of money and cap space to play with.

For me, it's great to be cleared by a doctor to play and to throw for 20 minutes or so and get up in the high 90s, but how many innings can each of these pitchers really expect to throw at an "ace" level?   With dollars like these flying around, it should be an interesting CBA if the owners claim tight budgets won't allow them to share more of their profits with the players who aren't at the elite level.  I just hope it doesn't adversely affect us trying to extend Musgrove and/or Clevinger.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 18, 2021, 5:34 am

The difference  in the two to me is that the Astros just proved they can win even without another Starter.

Everyone on the planet knows the Angels need starting pitching and paying that much for an oft injured one is just playing with fire.

If Thor leaves injured early in the season and they miss the playoffs again literally everyone will be asking “What were the Angels thinking”?

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 18, 2021, 6:58 am

I guess the short terms “justify” the big dollars in those teams minds to the upside gamble. Side note Verlander ‘earned” mega dollars from Houston for not pitching in the past two years, so IF he does not recover his dominance … Houston invested over $100MM for very little. It is a wonderful world if you have the money!

Not sure the alternatives out there at their “potential” quality let alone at that LOW commitment. Scherzer is pushing for 3 years + and over $100MM … and he is not young. Robbie Ray (now with a Cy Young in his pocket) will be seeing a very long deal and big AAV … looking at his career, is 2021 truly representative of his quality going forward?

Risk can be viewed in light of total dollar commitment in the contract … is $50MM / 2 years less risky financially for an elite player recovering from injury vs. a $150MM / 6 years for a healthy player but with a one year profile and a sketchy track record.

There may be an advantage of getting out of a short term deal and go a different direction rather than paying for years of under performance (see Hosmer).

Quote from fenn68 on November 18, 2021, 7:12 am

Since the “out of the blocks”signings are SP for big money … can we extrapolate:

1. Any good SP is going to be expensive?

2. If SP is the priority and getting the big money … will hitters be less in demand and get relatively lower contract pay?

3. Will the trade value of controlled SP at comparatively bargain contracts with even mid-range production jump proportionately.

4. Will the trade value of pitching prospects also escalate?

Maybe we should expect money to flow to pitchers (both good and bad) … probably not really hurting the elites hitters (e.g. Correa types) but the mid-range bats might get squeezed.

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Good for Padres who need 2-3 added bats and they could be getting them at better prices. On the the other hand, bad for the Padres in their efforts to move Hosmer or Myers. Then again, Padres have SP (health or not) with some depth that may be more valuable in a trade than we tend to value them at based on see them and “hometown bias”.