Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 5:47 am

Quote from Ben Davey on July 8, 2020, 9:25 pm

Mateo never took part in Summer Camp.  He arrived after the trade and couldnt join until after he passed the test.  He didnt, so is currently quarantined.

I think Olivares is this summers overly hyped player.  Outfield is already crowded, maybe if there is an injury or two?  But already, how much playing time do you see Franchy getting?

Same as most normal ST ... a player or two get a lot of positive coverage early before they get sent down. Writers know they need to their pieces on them while they are around and save their articles on the players who will make the active roster until near the end of ST. This year it is even harder with a small contingent of players hanging around camp with even a small chance of making the roster.

Sort of an odd handicap cue .... but the more early coverage the lower odds of making the opening day roster? See Olivares ... Gore ... Patino.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 6:22 am

Taking a different spin on Olivares ... over hyped yes but maybe a better chance to make the 30 man not based on "earning" the slot but the completion for CF "losing" the slot.

Padres are looking to Grisham and Cordero to handle CF ... but LHH with very limited ML exposure.

1. Grisham (everyone seem to be ceding CF to him) but in his rookie season last year was terrible offensively AWAY from Miller Park. 110 PA yielded a 69 wRC+ ... that is not good. Against LHP ... 36 PA and a 38.7% strikeout rate.
2. Cordero ... can he stay healthy (he has not for a couple of years)? Has not played much over the past two seasons. his career (46 PA) he 56 wRC+ vs. LHP with a 39.1% strikeout rate.

Have to have some worry about those two being able to handle CF offensively ... especially against LHP. If not Olivares as an alternative then: Myers (defensive issue and has to be replaced in RF); Pham (defensive issue and hast to be replaced in LF); Mateo (no a great hitter in the minor leagues and a defensive unknown) ... none make any sense. The fact that the Padres have not yet added Lagares to the 60 man suggest they don't think a great support piece (agree based on recent performance ... can't hit and declining defense).

With Pham in LF and Myers in RF ... the rest of the expected OF options are LHH and no indication Cordero or Grisham can hit LHP (25%ish of the PA).

Tough call for the Padres ... how long in this shortened season can they go with an underperforming CF and potentially losing a few more games? Olivares may not be the desirable piece to complement the other OF options but may be the best. Padres may regret the deal of Margot for Pagan.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 6:55 am

Margot just didn't hit enough.

I'm thinking Olivares can duplicate what Margot did offensively and the combination of Grisham/Olivares or Cordero/Olivares

will out produce what we would have got from Margot going forward at a cost savings.Also don't think the loss of "some" defense will be enough to regret the trade.

Especially considering I expect Pagan to be dominant and a big piece in the short season.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 7:31 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 6:55 am

Margot just didn't hit enough.

I'm thinking Olivares can duplicate what Margot did offensively and the combination of Grisham/Olivares or Cordero/Olivares

will out produce what we would have got from Margot going forward at a cost savings.Also don't think the loss of "some" defense will be enough to regret the trade.

Especially considering I expect Pagan to be dominant and a big piece in the short season.

 

 

Not an issue with Pagan .. like that add for 2020 and the future.

Just not as convinced that any CF combo will hit better than Margot (plus Margot is a much better defensive CF).

Last year Margot did have a 95 wRC+ AWAY from PETCO while Grisham had a 69 wRC+ AWAY from MILLER. With MILLER being a great hitter's park and PETCO a pitcher's park ... will Grisham even be worse than 69 wRC+ at PETCO. Olivares only hit .268 in AA away from AMA and only hit .269 vs LHP (worse than he it vs. RHP) not a great basis for immediate ML success. Cordero ??????

Hope you are right but Padres will have to be lucky to avoid a major hole in CF ... offensively and defensively.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 10:34 am

Wonder how much of roster composition will reflect what appears to becoming a significant weakness vs. LHP?

In 2019, Hosmer had a 59 wRC+ vs. LHP (very bad) but worse was Hedges at an unbelievably low of 34 wRC+. Have seen no evidence that either Grisham or Cordero can hit LHP.

Would suggest that Mejia needs to catch when LHP start (had an 87 wRC+ vs. LHP) still leaving DH, 1B, and CF exposed. Naylor is the best of the LHH options vs. LHP (best as DH option). We have cited Olivares as a CF platoon option but should we also consider France who did have an acceptable 96 wRC+ vs. LHP? Issue is that for every platoon add ... someone else on the roster gets bumped.

Tatis, Machado, Pham, and Myers do hit LHP well ... so that helps. Moving Renfroe and Margot (both hit LHP well) clearly was intended to help the balance for more productivity vs. RHP ... but the LHH replacements are just creating a different issue.

Short season and noted that the AL West's projected starters are 40% LHP while the NL West projected starters are 36% LHP. Worse main Division competitors: LAD go with 3 (Kershaw, Wood, Urias) and AZ go with 2 (Bumgarner, Ray). Not just LHP but good LHP for 50% of those starts. How much of a team's 9 player line-up can a team fill with hitters that are significantly below average against LHP?

In a 60 game schedule every loss is amplified and a loss to a Division opponent is effectively yielding a double impact.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 10:40 am

Man....if only we had a veteran RH hitting 2b option to platoon with Profar who once hit 40+ homeruns!

A guy who has more major league homeruns than any player hit as a Padre ever.

A guy who had a .900 OPS last season against LH pitching.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 9, 2020, 11:18 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 10:40 am

Man....if only we had a veteran RH hitting 2b option to platoon with Profar who once hit 40+ homeruns!

A guy who has more major league homeruns than any player hit as a Padre ever.

A guy who had a .900 OPS last season against LH pitching.

 

 

The problem with Dozier is that both he AND Profar were good vs. LHP, but bad vs RHP last season.  I expect Garcia to make at least half the starts vs RH SP this year.  Only leaves what 35? 40? starts for ONE of Profar or Garcia...

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 9, 2020, 11:48 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 7:31 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 6:55 am

Margot just didn't hit enough.

I'm thinking Olivares can duplicate what Margot did offensively and the combination of Grisham/Olivares or Cordero/Olivares

will out produce what we would have got from Margot going forward at a cost savings.Also don't think the loss of "some" defense will be enough to regret the trade.

Especially considering I expect Pagan to be dominant and a big piece in the short season.

 

 

Not an issue with Pagan .. like that add for 2020 and the future.

Just not as convinced that any CF combo will hit better than Margot (plus Margot is a much better defensive CF).

Last year Margot did have a 95 wRC+ AWAY from PETCO while Grisham had a 69 wRC+ AWAY from MILLER. With MILLER being a great hitter's park and PETCO a pitcher's park ... will Grisham even be worse than 69 wRC+ at PETCO. Olivares only hit .268 in AA away from AMA and only hit .269 vs LHP (worse than he it vs. RHP) not a great basis for immediate ML success. Cordero ??????

Hope you are right but Padres will have to be lucky to avoid a major hole in CF ... offensively and defensively.

HUGE asterick by your stats...

1) You're focusing on home/away, but not vs opposite handed pitching.  When they acquired Grisham, Margot was already relegated to the short side of platoon in CF b/c he can't hit RH pitching well enough to start.  His presence would given team much better defense, but also blocked (pre-DH) Naylor or Cordero from the active roster.

2)  Grisham was selected on August 1st last year.  He's been in MLB less time than Munoz, Baez, and Morejon.  He has 156 CAREER AB in 51 games; < 100 in Away parks... just seems like too small of a sample to characterize in any way.  Think Pads felt they couldn't live offensively vs 2/3 - 3/4? of SP (RH) with a 7,8,9 hole in lineup of:  Margot, Hedges, P.

However, the trades of Franmil Reyes, Urias, & Margot have created the 2 biggest weaknesses:   1)  Up the middle (2B & CF) Defense and 2)  Overall weakness vs LHP, esp @ DH.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 12:07 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 9, 2020, 11:18 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 10:40 am

Man....if only we had a veteran RH hitting 2b option to platoon with Profar who once hit 40+ homeruns!

A guy who has more major league homeruns than any player hit as a Padre ever.

A guy who had a .900 OPS last season against LH pitching.

 

 

The problem with Dozier is that both he AND Profar were good vs. LHP, but bad vs RHP last season.  I expect Garcia to make at least half the starts vs RH SP this year.  Only leaves what 35? 40? starts for ONE of Profar or Garcia...

Unless one finds their way to 1B ... DH ... CF (not Dozier mind you).

Garcia just adds to the confusion ... he has never hit LHP .... so only an option for RHP (how many of those "only against RHP" players can you have)? Has been pretty "average" as a bench player vs. RHP over his career but as recently as 2018 he was not that good (hence set free by StL). Do we believe in his 2019 or his 2018?

A Dozier / Garcia platoon at 2B to start the season with the 30 roster? .... Profar as a switch hitter (also betting he plays more like 2018 ... other years not so much) as a super-utility in the OF/INF ... even more logical if Mateo is on the COVID list.

Just as in CF .... 2B may turn into a revolving door based on the situation and who is hot ... no clear cut pick for someone to take the full time role.

If they go with Mateo and Profar based on versatility (and both out of options and neither has proven offense in the ML) while adding either France or Dozier for a RHH platoon ... might be tough to figure out who gets dumped at the cut to 26.

I keep in the back of my mind that other than Machado and Hosmer everyone else has some history of injuries sending them out of the line-up (short or IL stint). Losing a key player to the IL is a big thing in a 60 game season ... so wouldn't put someone on the IL unless really necessary. Advantage for Profar / Mateo since both can play OF/INF as opposed to the more one dimensional back-ups.