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30-man Active O.D., 40-man MLB, 60-man "Taxi" Rosters
#1 · June 25, 2020, 9:41 am
With ST 2 now a week away, and transactions about to un-freeze, I thought it made sense to start a thread just focusing on the 3 different "rosters". Did a long post yesterday speculating some about 60-man ST roster composition over on the 2020 thread.
There is SO much to unpack with all of these decisions, I'll just hit some of the 60-man stuff here. How teams balance fielding the most competitive team possible vs developing their best "older" prospects will be fascinating. Preller quoted yesterday 60-man involves "some really tough decisions" and that they're 'down to' the last "10 or 12 spots".
I would argue that, similar to a 40-man roster, there are very few spots you can "hold" for pure developmental guys who won't play in MLB. I looked back at a system spreadsheet: at end of July 2019, Padres had 8 guys on 60-day IL which would equate to using at least 48 guys from a 60-man roster. Only 1 of these guys (Garrett Richards) was "out" prior to Spring Training. 3 more (Jose Castillo, Jake Nix, Brett Kennedy) were hurt during ST. Even in this short of a season, I could EASILY see teams using 50 guys in MLB due to a Covid outbreak on their team, plus perhaps higher injury rate with short ramp up time.
One of the weirdest things to me about the 60-man concept is that it feels like an end point rather than a starting point. In normal ST you'd start with 60+, but you're leaving down guys you've seen to get looks at Minors FA, deciding AAA roster spots, etc. You also inevitably cut some minors FA. So not sure how this affects the Padres "premium" minors FA: Dozier, Lagares, and (lesser degree) Almonte. As few as none might make 30-man with tight roster, DH, etc.... but can they opt out if not in MLB for a better opportunity somewhere else?
Will the 60-man truly be "fixed/static", or will situations come up where guys are rolling up to it? What does "it" even mean? What's the difference between being the 60th guy on "the list", and the 61st guy not on the list? It sounds like "all" 30 (or less) guys on taxi squad may not even work out together once season starts, which to me seems outrageously stupid.
I guess we'll see the answer to these & many more questions soon..
#2 · June 25, 2020, 10:31 am
The "taxi squad" will stay together (current plan at least) in a site close to a team's home park but not at that home park. Sounds like they will have enough bodies to at least do some simulated games with a full complement of fielders to support the pitchers.
Considering injuries may be more frequent with limited ST restart but the need to go full speed in a short season coupled with the likely hits from a few players being hit with the virus ... very likely the "taxi squad" will get tapped often ... but baring a major outbreak ... should be able to navigate early with 40 man roster types and as the active drops back to 26 ... the inactive part of the 40 man is more robust (and at least four are in real game shape).
No idea which way Preller goes .... but looking at my list of "veteran non-roster types" not so sure there are that many as better options than some of the better AAA/AA prospects even for 2020. Plus, if the Padres had to burn thorough their active roster options ... their 40 man roster back-ups ... the a couple of "better" non-roster veterans ... they probably have bigger issues that will not be solved by fringe veterans and might as well go with their own guys filling out the taxi squad.
Also, not sure how many veteran non-roster types will want to show up ... I guess minor league pay but little future with the Padres for 2021. Maybe just stay healthy (re injury or virus) and hook on with another team next ST.
Since an earlier report said that only players on the "60" can appear in the majors in 2020 .... does a team have to consider the best mix if contending in September and needing replacements vs the best mix if out of contention and using September for development. Of course, if teams do decide on a "top prospect" development program in AZ/FLA for Sep/Oct then that may be better for development of prospects than being on the "taxi squad".
Glad not my decision.
#3 · June 25, 2020, 12:32 pm
Minors FA like Dozier, Lagares, Almonte etc are likely facing an extremely miserable FA year next year... while I can see a higher end minors FA asking to get released to hook on with some other team's taxi squad where they see a better path to MLB, I really doubt it's in ANY player's best interest to "sit out" this year in hopes of coming back next year... this isn't the last 8 games of NBA season, it's 3+ weeks to hope you get hot & hope that team rides the hot hand & hope you can continue it for 2 months in MLB so you have a path back next year... I think fringy back end of their career guys are in huge trouble NEXT season.
One agent predicted there could be up to 300 combined FA and Non-Tenders... WAY above normal # of Non-Tenders due to the financial pressure/lost revenue from this season. Painted a picture of really good FA begging for way below market 1 year deals heading into the black hole of CBA negotiations end 2021... verging off topic & probably it's own thread, but point is: don't think "premium" Minors FA guys have nearly the leverage of years past...
#4 · June 25, 2020, 12:41 pm
Re "60-man", do think Pads could exert some pressure/leverage on Scott Boras (Cole Wilcox agent) by dangling a spot on the 60-man roster to get MLB coaching/exposure/development this "lost" season... but only if he signs by ex. 6/28 so he can show up on time. It makes sense as the only college signee who needs development, and is essentially a 1st round caliber pick likely somewhere around #10-12 prospect range in our system... #'s: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, & 14 (Gore, Patino, Trammell, Campusano, Morejon, Baez, Olivares) will be in the 60-man, and #'s 3, 8, & 12 (Abrams, Arias, O. Miller) might be...
Wouldn't do Wilcox as much good to get added to 60-man after 7/1, or especially after season starts. He'd miss the whole preseason.
#5 · June 25, 2020, 1:24 pm
I guess in part it may be significant what the non-roster minor league veterans who become FA after the season are getting paid to be on the "taxi squad" and little chance of actually make the MLB roster in 2020. Players such as Higgins or Wu probably are not hurting or helping the odds of some team signing them to a minor league contract in 2021 by playing on the taxi squad or not playing. Some may be so close to retiring that becomes an option.
I guess even the more ML types (Dozier, Almonte, Lagares) have a little to prove by being on the taxi squad .... so have to gage the odds of making the ML roster (in a short 60 game season) and considering the roster players ahead of them ... and the pay (which I still am uncertain as the to pay plan for taxi squad guys).
Might be hard to tell if a player is not on the 60 man whether the Padres did not want him or he did not want to participate.
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No such thing as putting pressure on Boras ... pay him the $3MM and he is signed. Don't pay him the $3MM and Wilcox is back in college. Doubt it makes any difference to Boras whether Wilcox is on the 60 ... his view is a longer one.
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I guess we need to see the 60 man rules ... from one report a team names the 60 (on Sunday) and only those can appear in MLB games ... what is fuzzy ... if for whatever reason that original 60 is diminished (e.g. trade, release, 45 day IL) can another player be added to the taxi squad (but still be ineligible to play in the ML)?
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JasonE135
#6 · June 25, 2020, 10:39 pm
From listening to a few podcasts here is what it sounds like...
60 man roster wont be set until the day before the season starts. It should be the 40 man roster + 20 others.
In addition to the "active" lineup, an additional 5 players can be in the clubhouse as a "taxi squad," one of which has to be a catcher. This is part of the player safety issue in case a team like the Padres only have 2 catchers, and one (Hedges) comes down with COVID that morning (as daily testing or at least temp checks seem like a real thing).
The DL or IL whatever you want to call it will be 10 days. If a player is seriously injured they may be removed from the 40/60 man roster, but once they are they are ineligible to return the rest of the season. So if Richards blows out his arm again, the Padres could add someone else to that 60 man roster.
If a player tests positive for COVID there is no set time table for their return, just that they need to pass two straight tests. So it could be a week or the rest of the year.
Before COVID (what seems like 5 years ago), we were talking about the strength of the club being the bullpen. With a long lay off, dont expect many starters to go past 5. That works out perfect for guys like Lamet, Richards, Lucchessi. They go 5 then the bullpen takes over, and it can be a very short game. We could easily have a 15 man pen but only use Perdomo and Guerra in blow outs.
#7 · June 26, 2020, 8:01 am
Check out MLB.com and Mark Feinsand has a pretty complete breakdown about the roster / transaction rules for 2020.
Seems as though the "60" must be announced this Sunday and then in ST2 maybe only a portion of those go to the ML camp and the remainder go the the "alternate site" ... facility limitations. So we may have an idea early as to the players who are likely to be on the opening 30 (going to the ML camp) vs the lower tier going to the "alternate site".
Also, a new tidbit that trades apparently only can involve players on the "60" ... so that may preclude prospects not on the "60" .... if right ... might inhibit some deals for veterans at the trade deadline.
It sure will be interesting to try to figure out the subtext in population the "60".
#8 · June 26, 2020, 9:11 am
Quote from fenn68 on June 26, 2020, 8:01 amCheck out MLB.com and Mark Feinsand has a pretty complete breakdown about the roster / transaction rules for 2020.
Seems as though the "60" must be announced this Sunday and then in ST2 maybe only a portion of those go to the ML camp and the remainder go the the "alternate site" ... facility limitations. So we may have an idea early as to the players who are likely to be on the opening 30 (going to the ML camp) vs the lower tier going to the "alternate site".
Also, a new tidbit that trades apparently only can involve players on the "60" ... so that may preclude prospects not on the "60" .... if right ... might inhibit some deals for veterans at the trade deadline.
It sure will be interesting to try to figure out the subtext in population the "60".
This rule will MASSIVELY decrease the # of trades. I'm OK with that. I personally think there shouldn't be any Trades this year with everything going on & the timing of when Covid shut things down 2-3 weeks before Opening Day (teams offseason moves were 99%+ made; just live with the team you've got for 60 games).
Just shut down the Lindor etc, talk. With 75-80% of teams' Minor League systems (granted, a lot of non-MLB "organization" guys) not available in trade, hard to see any of those multiple prospect for expensive star player trades. The 2 types of trades I see happening are:
- Need for "Relative Quality": A team gets decimated by Covid @ P, trades a decent prospect for another team's 12th best SP on their 60 man list
- Need for "Salary Dump": Using Pads as an example: Davies is pitching OK but not great, and maybe Gore & others have "arrived" need 40-man room & Davies 2021 Arb salary prohibitive (more on that later), so get something for him, save some $ now, free up roster...
#9 · June 26, 2020, 10:53 am
“Salary relief” could be a real motivator for a deal even at the Aug 31 trade deadline ... especially with soon to be FA (Yates, Richards, Profar?).
Guess most teams with desirable assets and longer control will hold out until the winter for a shot at those better minor league prospects. For me Davies would fall into that category. Remember they can non-tender players next winter if they really don’t want to pay them (unless on multi year deals).
#10 · June 26, 2020, 12:03 pm
The Padres have 23 pitchers on their 40 man roster.
So they start our with 40 in San Diego, with 20 non-roster players at Peoria.
When the major league roster starts to be cut back over time, I assume those players will go to Peoria with the original "taxi squad." I don't see why the Padres couldn't designate Gore, Patino, Campusano, Trammel and Arias on the "taxi squad" of 20. I think they are all close enough that they could play in the majors if needed. If not, at least they could get instruction, play some inter squad games (with the Mariners?) and not lose a whole season of development.
Where am I wrong here?