Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 12:40 pm

I have confidence in Cordero being a better ML hitter than Margot...maybe substantially.

Of course it all depends on him staying healthy.

Then there's a matter of his CF defense.

I haven't seen enough to be sure either way but will assume he will be a drop off.

How much....only time will tell.Hopefully he will now stay healthy enough for us to find out.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 1:25 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 9, 2020, 11:18 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 10:40 am

Man....if only we had a veteran RH hitting 2b option to platoon with Profar who once hit 40+ homeruns!

A guy who has more major league homeruns than any player hit as a Padre ever.

A guy who had a .900 OPS last season against LH pitching.

 

 

The problem with Dozier is that both he AND Profar were good vs. LHP, but bad vs RHP last season.  I expect Garcia to make at least half the starts vs RH SP this year.  Only leaves what 35? 40? starts for ONE of Profar or Garcia...

I was mainly commenting on Fenn's discussion about who would DH against LH pitching.

While Naylor may get the bulk of DH at bats and he is "decent" against LH pitching I'd much prefer Dozire in the spots.

Profar stays at 2b and Dozier DH's against LH pitching.

I realize France could also be this guy but I'm still not sure he can produce at this level.

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 9, 2020, 2:20 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 1:25 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 9, 2020, 11:18 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2020, 10:40 am

Man....if only we had a veteran RH hitting 2b option to platoon with Profar who once hit 40+ homeruns!

A guy who has more major league homeruns than any player hit as a Padre ever.

A guy who had a .900 OPS last season against LH pitching.

 

 

The problem with Dozier is that both he AND Profar were good vs. LHP, but bad vs RHP last season.  I expect Garcia to make at least half the starts vs RH SP this year.  Only leaves what 35? 40? starts for ONE of Profar or Garcia...

I was mainly commenting on Fenn's discussion about who would DH against LH pitching.

While Naylor may get the bulk of DH at bats and he is "decent" against LH pitching I'd much prefer Dozire in the spots.

Profar stays at 2b and Dozier DH's against LH pitching.

I realize France could also be this guy but I'm still not sure he can produce at this level.

That Concept is valid, & his value with DH now DOES increase.  The problem is guaranteeing him $ when it's tight (remember big contracts already sunk $, so not really "fair" to compare) to DH for 15 - 20 games?  Especially on a tight 40-man likely requiring in season moves.

I don't know this, but really believe the idea of Dozier signing pre-Covid was: 1) just straight out compete against Profar, but also (mainly?) 2) to be available @ 2B vs LHP with Profar moving to 1B instead of Hosmer.  COULD still do that in  60-game season, and arguably more important to do so to improve the LH/RH matchups.... BUT since the (prorated) 20 MM to Hosmer is a sunk cost, I suspect they just go with Hosmer basically every day @ 1B & maybe push him down a few spots in lineup vs. LH SP's.

Not saying I agree with it, but understand organizaton's perspective;  Can't platoon both 20 MM contract position players.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 2:49 pm

Report has Castillo out for at least 6 weeks.

Not good but will allow a move to the 45 day IL ... opening a roster spot for any non-roster player they may want to add at any point.

Since the 6 weeks basically takes 1/2 of the season .. and he will not have been getting competitive work ..... probably stays on the IL all season using the “taxi squad” as his rehab assignment.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 3:04 pm

Agree they will not platoon Hosmer ... maybe at best just give a periodic rest ... and that likely will be against a LHP.  Probably plays all 60 but given consecutive games in the summer ... might get a couple off.

On Dozier, based on his prorated agreement (as reported) he would cost about $800K (not sure about incentives and how they may be reworked ...or not). So the Padres need Summer Camp to make the gut call on Profar’s bat (not all that good in 2019), Garcia, Mateo (if healthy), France to determine Dozier is a needed upgrade for the price. Castillo will make a roster slot open.

Of course, Dozier has a say ... maybe he is 26 man roster or opting out and that is why not on the initial “60” (still way under 60) or still debating the “incentives”. Veteran likely with money in the bank ... so the financial side of the decision may not be the same as a someone earlier in the career.

Quote from JasonE135 on July 9, 2020, 3:37 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 12:22 pm

Too much "small sample size" on a lot of roster options .... that goes for the bad and good.

I have to believe the Padres' scouting staff has seen enough of Grisham in the minors in 2019 to believe in the upside for 2020 ... but if they are wrong ... no safety net.

As for moving on from Margot ... no issue if he was replaced by an upgrade.

We will see soon if Grisham (or Cordero) is an upgrade.

I think that most teams are in this situation of having no true backup CF. I mean there are defensive replacements who can't hit, but most teams don't have 1 quality, true CF. Most have either a good hitter who is a poor fielder or a good fielder who is a poor hitter. Everyone is looking for a quality CF.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 3:57 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on July 9, 2020, 3:37 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 12:22 pm

Too much "small sample size" on a lot of roster options .... that goes for the bad and good.

I have to believe the Padres' scouting staff has seen enough of Grisham in the minors in 2019 to believe in the upside for 2020 ... but if they are wrong ... no safety net.

As for moving on from Margot ... no issue if he was replaced by an upgrade.

We will see soon if Grisham (or Cordero) is an upgrade.

I think that most teams are in this situation of having no true backup CF. I mean there are defensive replacements who can't hit, but most teams don't have 1 quality, true CF. Most have either a good hitter who is a poor fielder or a good fielder who is a poor hitter. Everyone is looking for a quality CF.

I understand not a love for Margot but even in 2019 for CF with > 400 PA he ranked 16th (WAR), 7th (dWAR), and 25th (wRC+). That mix made him a middle of the road ML CF ... like him or not. He was that quality CF TB was looking for ... enough so to give up a top rung RP in Pagan.  TB is not a bumbling franchise and is expected to be a contender ... might want to think about how they value the principles in this trade.

Then to have his replacement a totally unproven prospect as the starter and still with no reliable back up seems high risk for a team that says it wants to contend.

Pagan pitching behind Yates and Pomeranz will need to deliver a lot if Grisham can’t handle CF.

Quote from Ben Davey on July 10, 2020, 1:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 3:57 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on July 9, 2020, 3:37 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2020, 12:22 pm

Too much "small sample size" on a lot of roster options .... that goes for the bad and good.

I have to believe the Padres' scouting staff has seen enough of Grisham in the minors in 2019 to believe in the upside for 2020 ... but if they are wrong ... no safety net.

As for moving on from Margot ... no issue if he was replaced by an upgrade.

We will see soon if Grisham (or Cordero) is an upgrade.

I think that most teams are in this situation of having no true backup CF. I mean there are defensive replacements who can't hit, but most teams don't have 1 quality, true CF. Most have either a good hitter who is a poor fielder or a good fielder who is a poor hitter. Everyone is looking for a quality CF.

I understand not a love for Margot but even in 2019 for CF with > 400 PA he ranked 16th (WAR), 7th (dWAR), and 25th (wRC+). That mix made him a middle of the road ML CF ... like him or not. He was that quality CF TB was looking for ... enough so to give up a top rung RP in Pagan.  TB is not a bumbling franchise and is expected to be a contender ... might want to think about how they value the principles in this trade.

Then to have his replacement a totally unproven prospect as the starter and still with no reliable back up seems high risk for a team that says it wants to contend.

Pagan pitching behind Yates and Pomeranz will need to deliver a lot if Grisham can’t handle CF.

Just wondering, how many CF qualified?  16th sounds like middle of the pack, but if only 22 qualified... Looking at Margot's splits, he works better as a platoon player with above average D.  If Grisham can give you anything even close to it, then its a win considering we also get Pagan.

Dang the Brewers/Nats WC game seems like an eternity ago when Grisham's error led to Washington winning.

Quote from Ben Davey on July 10, 2020, 1:23 am

In regards to Hosmer playing everyday, given his inability to hit LHP I cant see Tingler just dropping him in the order.  Myers and France have both taken infield practice at 1B and can see either starting there for Hosmer against lefties.

With the DH and the three batter rule there is more flexibility for the offense.  Could see France starting, getting two AB, and then Hosmer PH against a RHP late in the game.

Unless you are Tatis/Machado and probably Pham, no reason not to play the matchups as often as possible.