Quote from WindsorUK on September 19, 2025, 1:50 pm

Surpised France isn't a Padre. Obviously a lousy trade got rid of him in the first place but he was available this past off season and deadline.

Quote from fenn68 on September 20, 2025, 11:15 am

Nice article on Hart and his return as a RP ....his potential to be a sleeper key RP in the playoffs.

Most of us are locked on his failure early in the season as a SP ... lost track of him after being sent down to EP ... BUT looking as his return as a RP and his stats are outstanding. The article identifies a 2-3 MPH uptick in his FB and more impressively a major improvement in the movement of has sweeper. He always did have good command. Opens two points of debate:

1. for the playoffs ... does he stay active at the expense of one of the other LHRP (Peralta or Matsui) or might he bump a struggling RHRP (Estrada)? Padres do have to drop to 13 pitchers ... although for a 3 game set ... might drop a SP.
2. for the winter, Hart is on a club option at $5MM ... will the Padres given budget limitations exercise it when coming back are Matsui ($5.7MM) and likely Peralta ($4.5MM)? Should be room on the 40 man. A factor may be whether Preller sees a trade market for either Peralta or Matsui ... or even Hart. Padres could move one (or two) and maybe pick up some bench strength or a prospect for the future.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 23, 2025, 5:51 am

#1 goal attained......Playoffs baby!

First time with back to back playoff seasons since 05'-06' and for only the second time in franchise history.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 23, 2025, 7:52 am

As frustrated as many have been with the team in 2025 ... this should be considered one of the best team / managing efforts for the Padres considering:

Starting Pitching:

Musgrove out for the season

King missed 17 starts (more than 1/2 the season) ... ERA jumped from 2.95 (2024) to 3.57

Darvish missed 17 starts ... ERA jumped from 3.31 (2024) to 5.51

Cease's ERA jumped from 3.47 (2024) to 4.64

and yet the Padres had one of the lowest ERA in MLB.

Offense:

2/3 of the season and virtually no production out of 7-8-9 in the batting order ... until adding O'Hearn - Laureano - Fermin at the deadline

Arraez has his worst season by a big margin while hitting second in the line-up

Machado has had a good season but under his career level as the #3 hitter.

Merrill missed 46 games and had a couple of long slumps dropping him well below his 2024

Whew that is a lot of "under expectations" for key parts of this team ... yet make the playoffs and will win nearly 90 games. Have to be happy with overcoming adversity.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 23, 2025, 9:30 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 20, 2025, 11:15 am

Nice article on Hart and his return as a RP ....his potential to be a sleeper key RP in the playoffs.

Most of us are locked on his failure early in the season as a SP ... lost track of him after being sent down to EP ... BUT looking as his return as a RP and his stats are outstanding. The article identifies a 2-3 MPH uptick in his FB and more impressively a major improvement in the movement of has sweeper. He always did have good command. Opens two points of debate:

1. for the playoffs ... does he stay active at the expense of one of the other LHRP (Peralta or Matsui) or might he bump a struggling RHRP (Estrada)? Padres do have to drop to 13 pitchers ... although for a 3 game set ... might drop a SP.
2. for the winter, Hart is on a club option at $5MM ... will the Padres given budget limitations exercise it when coming back are Matsui ($5.7MM) and likely Peralta ($4.5MM)? Should be room on the 40 man. A factor may be whether Preller sees a trade market for either Peralta or Matsui ... or even Hart. Padres could move one (or two) and maybe pick up some bench strength or a prospect for the future.

 

To me, it still is a small sample size as a RP.  I hope he has a great rest of the year and playoff run but Hart is not worth 5M as a RP.  Matsui and Peralta got their RP deals based on historical data of proven success - while both have underperformed most of the time, there was more of a basis to give them a contract in the $5M range.

What I think will happen is the Padres will decline the club option, pay Hart the 500K buy out and offer him a $1.75-2M contract for 2026, maybe with some incentives, which I believe Hart will accept.  He is not going to be in great demand on the open market and at 33 years of age has limited upside, if any.  He does provide LH RP insurance for the opting out of Peralta to go along with Morejon and Matsui (sorry, no one is going to trade for an inconsistent pitcher hitting 30 years of age who is getting 5.75M in 2026 and 6.5M in 2027).

Internally, Padres have few LH RP candidates, although SP's Haynes and Gutierrez could be converted to that role if they hit a wall as SPs.  Omar Cruz could surprise but woefully inconsistent as was Jackson Wolf (whose repertoire is much like Hart's).  Harry Gustin and Jackson Smeltz appear to have the talent to get a longer look, but the latter was injured for all of 2025; dark horse is Fernando Sanchez, who has filled many roles in the system, has a rubber arm and much improved over previous years.  Bottom line is I like the idea of keeping Hart but not at 5M.

Quote from fenn68 on September 23, 2025, 10:36 am

Matsui, Peralta, and Hart will be an interesting watch as older LHRP but really short term commitments if you assume 2027 will be lost (in a big part) by the lockout (no one gets paid).

Don't underestimate the need by potential contenders to improve their pens ... and overall RP depth is shallow. Consider the NL 2nd half of 2025 ... RP ERA 4.26 / WHIP 1.33, then

Matsui (24.1 innings) ... 2.59 / 1.19

Peralta (27.1 innings) ... 2.63 / 1.17

Hart (12.1 innings) ... bad ERA but 1.14 WHIP ... but yes a small sample size

All have been "better than average" so should have some appeal and could be traded IF the Padres just want to move salary and not demand a big return.

Key #1 is whether Peralta opts out (doubt it but?). Given Preller is always in contact with other teams discussing everyone ... he probably has a good idea if there is a trade market of any of the three and that may shape is strategy.

Padres seem to like Peralta the best (at least use him in more critical situations), so is the one they may try to hold on to ... and may be the most desired by other teams. Matsui it the youngest and most expensive but not getting important innings ... so flip the logic on Peralta. Hart is a wild card and no idea what the Padres think after conversion to RP and his stuff improving. Clearly one (or more) will go.

Cruz is a real option if can harness some command ... more a long LHRP. I also would not rule out Sears in the pen for long relief. Preller does have the skill to find useful pieces cheaply so PTNL is always there.

May boil down to the need to shave payroll ... if not, good chance LHRP is status quo.

Quote from fenn68 on September 23, 2025, 10:42 am

Not sure on Hart re-signing on a low deal if his option is declined.

He will clearly want to test the market ... likely wants to see if he can land in a spot were he has a chance to be a SP (low chance in SD) ... and might not be in love with the Padres for demoting him, keeping him in EP most of the season, and declining the option. Padres staff is strong enough to set him up for a yo-yo to EP in 2026 ... go to a team that needs him more ... stays in ML ... sets-up a better deal after 2026.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 23, 2025, 1:43 pm

While his ego may want to test the market, the reality is that he was only able to go through a line-up once before being hit hard, i.e., slightly more than 4 innings.  I don't think the market for that kind of SP is high and a team would rather bring up someone at league minimum than throw a few million gambling on a 33 year old.

On the other hand, LH RP tend to have a relatively long tenure in the bigs even if their stuff is just above borderline. I could see him pitching for another 3-5 years as a journeyman RP, so my feeling is he plays it safe and tries to build on his small sample for 2027 even though we know that 2027 will be a very unusual and unpredictable year for baseball.  I'm just hoping we get at least half a season in (which actually might help an older team like the Padres).

Quote from fenn68 on September 23, 2025, 3:50 pm

IF some team offers the same deal as the Padres offer Hart ... especially one with a bad pitching staff (SP or RP or both) ... and given the Padres had the 3rd best ERA in MLB ... he takes it and bolts for a greater chance to stay in the ML and build his resume. With the Padres most likely he will struggle to make the roster and stay up all season.

Money being equal ... he opts for a more certain ML opportunity.

Personally I think his future (at 33) is solely as a LHRP ... so for the Padres and Hart ... the status of Morejon, Peralta, and Matsui have to factor into the decisions. Actually all four have short control profiles ... and not seeing any safe bets in the system for LHRP. Preller (and the scout/coaches) may have to make some short and longer term calls on each as part of the decision process.