Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 3:22 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 6, 2025, 10:47 pm

Sanchez is below average defensively, doesn't hit lefties and is good not great against righties. He's making 4.5m this year with 2 more years of arbitration control left. My question is how much can his salary go up in arbitration before you stop looking at him as good value?

His numbers to this point are very close to Peralta's last year in about the same number of PAs. Peralta still hasn't found a job. Being controllable doesn't necessarily make someone a solution moving forward. Sanchez's arbitration control could end up getting him non-tendered. He could look a lot less valuable when that 4.5 turns into 8 or 10.

Sanchez may be a case of alternatives and price in trade chips to get him (if MIA is selling). IF he falters the Padres could always non-tender (or trade) him after 2026 and avoid the  salary.

Yeh, don't like he is another LHH who struggles vs LHP but his hitting vs RHP is slightly above average ... that would be vs about 70% of the starters ... and the current LF mix for the Padres is woefully bad vs everyone (unless Sheets is your LF but then the hole moves to DH).

So, Sanchez could be an upgrade for LF in absence of being able to land someone better and maybe add a marginal RHH to platoon (or just go with Johnson). Also on the off chance the Padres don't re-sign Arraez (LHH), adding a LHH in Sanchez is a useful move.

2025-26 salary will not be bad (would guess 2026 ARB around $6MM) ... can dump him for 2027 if he does not work out at no cost ... open question on being able to add a better / cheaper alternative ... so at this point for me the question is who would the Padres have to give up to get him.

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Interesting comments on the ESPN coverage last night on Preller's quest to add a bat for the bottom of the line-up.

LF is an obvious need but they seemed to think the Padres could live with Sheets in LF and go for a hitter for DH or 2B (with Cronenworth to 1B and Arraez to DH). I guess have to be flexible to get the best hitting option into the line-up.

Also, suggested that at this point in the season ... adding a strong hitting catcher is unlikely ... just a real lack on the market.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 7, 2025, 3:24 am

His OPS against Righties is .793…..only Manny and Tatis have a higher OPS on the Padres and Tatis is barely better atm.

I realize he isn’t an all Star…..trying to find someone that won’t cost a lot both in prospects and payroll for 2-3 years.

Id love to see other suggestions of guys who are actually available and controlled for 2-3 seasons for less.

There are rentals…..but IMO we don’t need just a rental at this point.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 3:42 am

At least to me ... despite his reputation as being a very bad defender and some low defensive stats ... Arraez actually has looked good at 1B (better than Sheets). His glove handles the grounders, picks thrown balls out of the dirt. and seems to make good throws when needed. How good? but not bad.

He will be an interesting re-signing debate ... Preller seems to like him (although he liked Profar too), Arraez has said he would like to re-sign, Padres have to add for other holes so losing Arraez would make that objective even harder with an additional spot to fill ... not sure there is much of a market for Arraez and what that limited market would offer in a contract.

Arraez is young and can hit albeit without power or OBP ... grades out at maybe a $10MM type in my view. He is currently at $14MM. Hard to see a team going higher in AAV or even offer that level (but was surprised on Profar).

Any guess on the cap Preller would go to re-sign? Maybe something like 3 years / $30MM with incentives?

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 3:49 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 7, 2025, 3:24 am

His OPS against Righties is .793…..only Manny and Tatis have a higher OPS on the Padres and Tatis is barely better atm.

I realize he isn’t an all Star…..trying to find someone that won’t cost a lot both in prospects and payroll for 2-3 years.

Id love to see other suggestions of guys who are actually available and controlled for 2-3 seasons for less.

There are rentals…..but IMO we don’t need just a rental at this point.

 

Agree on Sanchez ... and someone other than rentals would be a good objective but it does boil down to current available alternatives (and price) vs what are usually "cheap" rentals.

So would not rule out rentals and then this winter make the longer term moves when the player pool may be larger with teams who are not deadline sellers may be open to moving ML talent in an effort to re-arrange their rosters for 2026.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 7, 2025, 6:42 am

It’s pretty crazy that we just got through a 27 games in 28 days stretch and we’ve still played two less games than the Giants

Quote from BoosterSD on July 7, 2025, 7:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 3:42 am

Any guess on the cap Preller would go to re-sign? Maybe something like 3 years / $30MM with incentives?

 

Since SD is always up against the CBT, I would add about $10-12M additional dollars and stretch it out to 5 years for additional CBT space. He is still young, and his bat to ball skills should not dissipate as quick as a power guy. Maybe even 6 years for $42M.

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 7:55 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 7, 2025, 7:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 3:42 am

Any guess on the cap Preller would go to re-sign? Maybe something like 3 years / $30MM with incentives?

 

Since SD is always up against the CBT, I would add about $10-12M additional dollars and stretch it out to 5 years for additional CBT space. He is still young, and his bat to ball skills should not dissipate as quick as a power guy. Maybe even 6 years for $42M.

Actually your argument that he is young and bat to ball skills should not dissipate should result in Arraez not taking a longer deal / lower AAV.

IF he thinks he is worth (and can get) the higher AAV on a short deal ... then return to the FA market in three years (when he is 31ish) and get more for the "extra years" makes a lot of sense for him. That should be better as a FA than taking a 6 year deal and hit FA again at 34ish. Anyone's guess as to the optimum time for him to re-enter FA for the largest payout ... but sure his agent has an opinion.

Although agree that agreeing to a longer term deal for security should result in a lower AAV in theory ... not expecting all that much a drop since there would be some push to deal with the the fact that league salaries do tend to rise every year.

Given the Padres financial limits and other priorities ... then really nothing coming to deal with the offense woes near term ... going to be an "interesting" negotiation on Preller's part.

Preller does tend to set a value and stick with it ... and is flexible and not fixate on any one player ... so does he throw out a number of offers to the Padre FA and locks in the first to agree then lets the others go ... shifting then to their replacements? Can't really build a team if waiting for some players/agents dragging their feet and delaying trying to make other moves given limited money / options.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on July 7, 2025, 10:38 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 7:55 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 7, 2025, 7:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 3:42 am

Any guess on the cap Preller would go to re-sign? Maybe something like 3 years / $30MM with incentives?

 

Since SD is always up against the CBT, I would add about $10-12M additional dollars and stretch it out to 5 years for additional CBT space. He is still young, and his bat to ball skills should not dissipate as quick as a power guy. Maybe even 6 years for $42M.

Actually your argument that he is young and bat to ball skills should not dissipate should result in Arraez not taking a longer deal / lower AAV.

IF he thinks he is worth (and can get) the higher AAV on a short deal ... then return to the FA market in three years (when he is 31ish) and get more for the "extra years" makes a lot of sense for him. That should be better as a FA than taking a 6 year deal and hit FA again at 34ish. Anyone's guess as to the optimum time for him to re-enter FA for the largest payout ... but sure his agent has an opinion.

Although agree that agreeing to a longer term deal for security should result in a lower AAV in theory ... not expecting all that much a drop since there would be some push to deal with the the fact that league salaries do tend to rise every year.

Given the Padres financial limits and other priorities ... then really nothing coming to deal with the offense woes near term ... going to be an "interesting" negotiation on Preller's part.

Preller does tend to set a value and stick with it ... and is flexible and not fixate on any one player ... so does he throw out a number of offers to the Padre FA and locks in the first to agree then lets the others go ... shifting then to their replacements? Can't really build a team if waiting for some players/agents dragging their feet and delaying trying to make other moves given limited money / options.

 

However, the market still has to be there for a guy like Arraez. I dont think there are many teams that are looking for a low OBP, low SLG option taking up the 1B or DH spots.

Thats why I think his market is going to be limited. So, IF he really likes SD and SD really likes his skill set, it benefits both sides to do something creative so both sides can reach their goal, winning a WS in SD.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 7, 2025, 11:26 am

Trade talks typically start to pick up after the All-Star break. Things are starting to get a little clearer from a buyers/sellers perspective, but a hot or cold stretch could still change things for a few teams.

We need to get better against lefties. LF, C, 1B, 2B and DH are the positions I think they can look to add at to accomplish that. Getting another strong lefty reliever and a depth starter would also be nice. I see those as luxuries more than needs though.

Mike Tauchman is the guy I keep coming back to as a target for LF. Sheets is also looking good enough defensively lately that they might just consider grabbing a platoon partner for him. Someone like Sam Haggerty or Rob Refsnyder could be great in that role if their teams end up selling. I really like Dane Myers and think the Marlins could be open to moving him for younger talent even though he's cheap and controllable. If you want a big name AJ special I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins tried to capitalize on his healthy season and move Byron Buxton.

It could be harder to find a C. I wouldn't mind Joey Bart. Ryan Jeffers could be available. The Cardinals have 2 good young C's in Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera. They also have a third C having a really good year in a limited role in Yohel Pozo. In the minors they have 2 good upper level prospects at C in Leonardo Bernal and Jimmy Crooks. I don't know if they'll want to make a trade while we're competing for a wildcard spot, but with their commitment to getting playing time for their younger guys I wonder if they would consider dealing from their depth. I also wonder if a team like the Mariners would be willing to move a blocked prospect like Harry Ford for a package of prospects and a reliever to help the big league team or something.

There's not much that excites me at 1B. Carlos Santana could make some sense to pair up with Arraez. They could also go after someone like Ramon Urias or Amed Rosario to play 2B against lefties with Cronenworth shifting to 1B. Overall, I'm hoping that AJ finds a way to add 2 or 3 bats that at least help against lefties at a reasonable cost.