Quote from WindsorUK on July 8, 2025, 7:03 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 7, 2025, 10:38 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 7:55 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 7, 2025, 7:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 3:42 am

Any guess on the cap Preller would go to re-sign? Maybe something like 3 years / $30MM with incentives?

 

Since SD is always up against the CBT, I would add about $10-12M additional dollars and stretch it out to 5 years for additional CBT space. He is still young, and his bat to ball skills should not dissipate as quick as a power guy. Maybe even 6 years for $42M.

Actually your argument that he is young and bat to ball skills should not dissipate should result in Arraez not taking a longer deal / lower AAV.

IF he thinks he is worth (and can get) the higher AAV on a short deal ... then return to the FA market in three years (when he is 31ish) and get more for the "extra years" makes a lot of sense for him. That should be better as a FA than taking a 6 year deal and hit FA again at 34ish. Anyone's guess as to the optimum time for him to re-enter FA for the largest payout ... but sure his agent has an opinion.

Although agree that agreeing to a longer term deal for security should result in a lower AAV in theory ... not expecting all that much a drop since there would be some push to deal with the the fact that league salaries do tend to rise every year.

Given the Padres financial limits and other priorities ... then really nothing coming to deal with the offense woes near term ... going to be an "interesting" negotiation on Preller's part.

Preller does tend to set a value and stick with it ... and is flexible and not fixate on any one player ... so does he throw out a number of offers to the Padre FA and locks in the first to agree then lets the others go ... shifting then to their replacements? Can't really build a team if waiting for some players/agents dragging their feet and delaying trying to make other moves given limited money / options.

 

However, the market still has to be there for a guy like Arraez. I dont think there are many teams that are looking for a low OBP, low SLG option taking up the 1B or DH spots.

Thats why I think his market is going to be limited. So, IF he really likes SD and SD really likes his skill set, it benefits both sides to do something creative so both sides can reach their goal, winning a WS in SD.

Another problem with signing Arraez to any lengthy contract, is where do you play him? Bogaerts is 100% on his way back to the right side of the infield, if not '26 then certainly '27.

So is Arraez your dedicated DH? I for one do not see much value in that.

Arraez has more value in a trade than he does on a future Padre team( unless of course AJ can pull off the greatest heist in MLB history by moving Bogaerts somehow)

Quote from WindsorUK on July 8, 2025, 7:17 pm

Are there 5 or 6 better starting pitchers in the NL than Nick Pivetta? 9-2 with a mid 3 ERA. He's 6-1 after Padre losses as well.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2025, 7:41 am

Quote from WindsorUK on July 8, 2025, 7:03 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 7, 2025, 10:38 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 7:55 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 7, 2025, 7:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2025, 3:42 am

Any guess on the cap Preller would go to re-sign? Maybe something like 3 years / $30MM with incentives?

 

Since SD is always up against the CBT, I would add about $10-12M additional dollars and stretch it out to 5 years for additional CBT space. He is still young, and his bat to ball skills should not dissipate as quick as a power guy. Maybe even 6 years for $42M.

Actually your argument that he is young and bat to ball skills should not dissipate should result in Arraez not taking a longer deal / lower AAV.

IF he thinks he is worth (and can get) the higher AAV on a short deal ... then return to the FA market in three years (when he is 31ish) and get more for the "extra years" makes a lot of sense for him. That should be better as a FA than taking a 6 year deal and hit FA again at 34ish. Anyone's guess as to the optimum time for him to re-enter FA for the largest payout ... but sure his agent has an opinion.

Although agree that agreeing to a longer term deal for security should result in a lower AAV in theory ... not expecting all that much a drop since there would be some push to deal with the the fact that league salaries do tend to rise every year.

Given the Padres financial limits and other priorities ... then really nothing coming to deal with the offense woes near term ... going to be an "interesting" negotiation on Preller's part.

Preller does tend to set a value and stick with it ... and is flexible and not fixate on any one player ... so does he throw out a number of offers to the Padre FA and locks in the first to agree then lets the others go ... shifting then to their replacements? Can't really build a team if waiting for some players/agents dragging their feet and delaying trying to make other moves given limited money / options.

 

However, the market still has to be there for a guy like Arraez. I dont think there are many teams that are looking for a low OBP, low SLG option taking up the 1B or DH spots.

Thats why I think his market is going to be limited. So, IF he really likes SD and SD really likes his skill set, it benefits both sides to do something creative so both sides can reach their goal, winning a WS in SD.

Another problem with signing Arraez to any lengthy contract, is where do you play him? Bogaerts is 100% on his way back to the right side of the infield, if not '26 then certainly '27.

So is Arraez your dedicated DH? I for one do not see much value in that.

Arraez has more value in a trade than he does on a future Padre team( unless of course AJ can pull off the greatest heist in MLB history by moving Bogaerts somehow)

Bogaerts is currently ranked on Fangraphs and the #5 DEFENSIVE SS in the ML (#5 in OAA) ... he is not moving off SS for years given that defense combined with no replacement near term. IF DeVries develops he might contend at some point but unless he is elite at SS ... he might take the Tatis / Merrill route and end up as the LF.

So, Arraez has a home in SD ... given a vast wasteland of offensive prospects near term combined with holes in the offense not ... that would only be worse without him.

For me considering the offense is the biggest worry going forward ... it boils down to the contract. I can't see a mega contract for Arraez but doubt he can get that from anyone. However, if the contract is "right" a bit of pressure off who the get for LF/C upgrades by not having to worry about another add need.

Still think a $30MM / 3 year deal would work for SD ... realistically it may need to be a little higher (AAV) or anther year or two. Not going to find a FA cheaper with equal value ... and with few trade chips they need to be "saved" to target that LF/C upgrade.

So, would re-sign him for the right price.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2025, 8:14 am

The current talking point on the Padres' offensive woes is the poor hitting with runners in scoring position ... and it sits 27th in MLB. Should note that in 2024 the Padres sat 12th. So a bit deeper analysis of the decline from last year:

1. First 6 of the core 7 (that includes Sheets) are above league average in OPS+ (Bogaerts is the one below ... well below). Tatis, Cronenworth, and Merrill are UP from 2024 while Machado and Arraez are still above average but slightly lower. That group is not worse (maybe better) than 2024. Might not feel that way but just is.
2. Problem 1: Catcher. Higashioka (70) and Campusano (100) way out performed Diaz (-10) and Maldonado (-30) ... those 2025 numbers are almost unfathomable. One total dead spot in the line-up.
3. Problem 2: departures of some of the above average hitters with RISP ... Profar (159 was the best on the team); Kim (125); Peralta (124); and even consider Solano (81) is better than the current crop of bench / 9th hitter options.
4. Problem 3: LF/bench is struggling to get anyone over 60 and most are much lower ... so a second total dead spot in the line-up.

Does add some support for pushing to add a productive hitter to extend the line-up as a priority ... maybe two. Would love at the deadline to add a productive C ... just don't see one around and available. That will be a priority over the winter ... can't live with this level of production.

Padres got really lucky with the add of Sheets (minor league contract) with an RISP OPS+ of 122 ... without him they would now have 3 total dead spot in the line-up.

This also may reflect the payroll limitations (payroll did go up) ... passing on Profar, Kim, and Higashioka and not being able to fund replacement bats of any quality.

Quote from fenn68 on July 9, 2025, 4:21 pm

LeMahieu DFA by NYY. Yes, old and over the hill. He will clear waivers (NYY still on the hook for $7MM this year and $15MM next) ... no one will want to take the remaining contract.

However, if he signs after clearing FA he is only owed a prorate portion of league minimum ... so perfect for SD. Can be cut after the season with no cost or kept at league minimum for 2026.

He is a RHH and is hitting .268 (just under .700 OPS) and that is light years ahead of whoever the Padres role out as the DH/9th bat.

So, does Preller make the call? Does LaMahieu pick a SD bid (apparently he does want to continue to play)?

Seems a fit for the Padres ... still some life in the bat and he is a minimum cost no commitment option. Seems a fit for LaMahieu with a clear role as DH and with a team in the hunt for the playoffs.

LaMahieu > Brooks ... LaMahieu > Johnson ... LaMahieu > Wade ... LaMahiew > Iglesias. Pick anyone and still look for additional upgrades.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 9, 2025, 8:22 pm

Why are we still playing Brooks,Maldonado and Johnson?

Why are we not giving Perlaza a chance in LF?

Why isn’t Campusano or Valenzuela on the 26 man?

It’s time to do “something”!

Shouldn’t we give a couple guys a shot before the deadline?

Perlaza for 3 weeks can’t hurt based on what we’re getting now.

I’d rather Campy hit .180 than Maldonado….I know, defense…but at least there’s a “chance” Campusano hits .250 and drives in a few runs

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2025, 5:13 am

Given the bench / 9th hitter are providing nothing, I agree rolling out auctions for others seems logical even if the organization does not believe in them.

Campusano should be as the RHH DH and given spot starts as C. At least we know he did hit .241 in the ML ... 86 OPS+ in over 500 AB. Maybe even full time DH with Sheets in LF. He is out of MiL options in 2026, so a final audition in 2025 may help both 2025 and the decision making over the winter. The no recall makes me wonder if the organization has made the longer term decision of Campusano's future.

Others at AAA I don't expect much from (but again don't need much) but using Lockridge as the benchmark ... could not hit in SD and immediately is a .300 hitter in EP. I guess the EP staff has to make the evaluation as to whether anyone even has a chance at the next level.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 10, 2025, 7:32 am

Continuing the dumpster diving strategy ... initially ... Mets just DFA Jankowski. Once he clears waivers and is a FA ... as with LeMahieu ... becomes a potential league minimum signing with no long term commitment.

Given the current Padres' bench ... Jankowski's line:

He’s up to 50 plate appearances on the season between those three teams and has produced a .244/.286/.289 batting line in that time.

Still way better than the current Padre bench.

? Add: Campusano; LeMahieu; Jankowski

Drop: Brooks; Johnson; Wade (or Maldonado)

and should be better and only cost a net about $1MM and give up no prospects. Then continue to pursue better ML upgrade into the deadline.

Not ideal BUT until realistic alternatives emerge ... small step improvement.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 10, 2025, 7:39 am

I don't think we're dropping Wade unless it's for a clear upgrade via trade.

Clubhouse guy...