Quote from WindsorUK on May 22, 2024, 8:16 pm

If it's just the glenoid( or clavicle) would think that repairs in short order. 2 months IR, followed by a few weeks rehab in the minors, a young, healthy professional athlete should be good to go by mid August.

Now if it's effected the brachial plexus( the nerve network running through the shoulder) or labrum, we won't see him until next year.

Be nice to have him at least DH'ing in time for a playoff run.

Quote from fenn68 on May 27, 2024, 1:54 pm

Bob Nightingale has a nice article on Arraez.

Very very positive ... not only his hitting but his approach to the game and value in the clubhouse. Very positive quotes from Machado and Tatis.

Given the positive vibes from Kim and Profar ... adding Arraez really uplifts the clubhouse.

Just for the back of the mind ... although Arraez said he will play wherever the Padres need him he did say he did not like being the DH and really not fond of 1B ... he loves 2B. Something to consider going forward even into 2025 with Cronenworth and the return of Bogaerts coupled with the Kim FA issue. Note that now the Padres seem to have installed Arraez at 1B with Croney to 2B.

Quote from WindsorUK on May 27, 2024, 2:03 pm

Kim is slowly working his way out of SD.

He'll need a MASSIVE improvement in both the field and the dish if he expects to get any interest in FA.

Obviously a fan favourite in SD, maybe he takes an SD discount to re-sign?

Short of that, we have what, 6 guys who can play SS?

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 27, 2024, 2:21 pm

The worse he plays this year the more likely he stays IMO.

4/$30 I could see him staying….basically what he signed for originally.

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 27, 2024, 4:04 pm

Re-signing Kim will be a matter of the contract ... probably a bit more that you think.

Consider that Kim is having a down year offensively / defensively from 2023 yet he is ranked #9 in WAR for SS ... #13 in wRC+ and #9 dWAR. If any teams needs a SS ... Kim's current production is desirable and if any view that he has some bounce back (he is still in his twenties) even more so. So I would expect a decent market as a FA.

Padres likely will try to re-sign him since ... although they have a lot of ex-shortstops, there is a reason they are ex-shortstops. Then add that they have no coming legit SS prospect until maybe DeVries 4 years from now (if he develops defensively). Doubt they can find a FA (or trade for) SS of any quality for less than Kim's cost.

Would not be surprised with a "creative" contract to try to hedge a bit on both sides ... but Padres need a deal with Kim for at least 4 years for his defense alone and avoid the void at a critical position. I could see (based on his 2024 so far) an $10-12MM AAV ... he is on target for a 4 WAR and that is a very good level.

Watch-out for competition from SF ... they need a SS and uniting with best friend Lee might be a lure and they have the money to push the price maybe over the $12MM level.

Quote from fenn68 on May 28, 2024, 4:46 am

Padres have been good in May. Sure does not feel this way as we measure the Padres against our expectations vs measuring the Padres against the NL competition.

To that end, so far for the month of  May in the NL, the Padres have the 3rd best record (14-10) behind LAD (14-9) and PHIL (18-6). Pitching: 3rd in ERA (3.30); 2nd in WHIP (1.08); and 2nd in BAA (.219). Hitting: 6th in OPS (.703); 1st in BA (.261); 3rd in OBP (.323); and 9th in SLG (.380).

All those stats are clearly playoff team quality. Can't really make any season conclusions from a 24 games set but just maybe the Shildt history of starting slow and playing better as the season progresses has merit ... is somehow that a result how he manages his players early? Good results in the pitching since Niebla arrived continues and it seems the arrival of Rodriguez as the hitting coach has ... overall ... been positive for the offense even with the massive under performance by Machado. Does appear that his approach to hitting is designed to improve BA/OBP at the expense of SLG ... after the past few seasons a bit tough to get used to.

Bottom line is winning and making the playoffs and in May the Padres are among the best in the NL. Just keep that pace for four more months and in the playoffs.

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 28, 2024, 7:40 am

With Xanders recent injury keeping Kim probably became even more important.

If we "knew" X could play everyday at SS the next 2-3 years I think you let Kim go.

We don't.

But I don't want to get in a bidding war with a Shortstop needy high revenue team either.

$8-9 mil per IMO is all I would do....unless of course he figures it out here and has a tremendously productive 2nd half.

 

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Quote from Randy Manese on May 28, 2024, 8:32 am

Kim continues to be under appreciated.  His barrel rate and hard hit% are both higher today then what it was in 2023, however, it is his BABIP that is considerably lower -.243 compared to around .300 - for last year.  This basically says he's been hitting in bad luck.  Moreover, his line drive % is the     same as last years while his ground ball % is actually down from last year.  I think all these factors point to him getting back to what he did last year as the season goes forward.  Kim also is leading   the team in walks and stolen bases and is often in the middle of rallies to secure the win.

I agree with Mr. Padre and Fenn that re-signing Kim should be a Padres priority.

Quote from fenn68 on May 28, 2024, 10:02 am

One thing the Padres need to do in 2024 is remain under the CBT level. That resets the penalty level to a somewhat minimal 1st offender scenario.

If the Padres do that ... they may elect to exceed the CBT level in 2025 by a relatively small amount getting only a small financial penalty. They will have to deal with arbitration decisions on several players  ... most impactful will be Arraez, Cease, and King. Then deal with FA Kim and Profar. Other arbitrations and FA should be much smaller issues financially.

2026 has Hosmer dropping off the books and Arraez, Cease, and King FA ... then a separate debate if they want to drop under the CBT as to who they try to resign and who the just QO.

I can see a strategy (barring unrealistic demands) the re-signing of Profar and Kim after 2024 primarily since they have no real replacements to rely on for the next few years. Moving players around just moves the holes around. Then after 2025 ... maybe just one of the FA is re-signed and Padres return under the CBT. Expect all three to seek very large ... long deals.

Without any near term offense coming in the system will have to rely on the pitching to develop and impact the ML team by 2026 to keep under the CBT. Mazur, Snelling, Lesko, Bergert, et al as starters ... never know on RP.

If that is the strategy, Padres may push up a bit to return both Profar and Kim given no quality replacements in hand.  2025, before all the FA issues, may become their best shot at going deep into the playoffs.