Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2023, 6:00 pm

On the subject of defense ... recognizing that most defense stats are subject to a lot of question ... we should be celebrating Tatis' conversion to RF.

As it stands, Tatis is #1 in MLB in DRS with 21 (2nd is at 16) and that seems to be a favorite in these days in rating defense efforts. Also, for qualified RF he has the #1 dWAR (10.7) which is about double the next qualified RF.

Should be an easy Gold Glove RF in his first year out there.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 18, 2023, 7:05 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2023, 6:00 pm

On the subject of defense ... recognizing that most defense stats are subject to a lot of question ... we should be celebrating Tatis' conversion to RF.

As it stands, Tatis is #1 in MLB in DRS with 21 (2nd is at 16) and that seems to be a favorite in these days in rating defense efforts. Also, for qualified RF he has the #1 dWAR (10.7) which is about double the next qualified RF.

Should be an easy Gold Glove RF in his first year out there.

Yet I keep seeing Padre fans who can’t wait to move him to CF.

He’d be fine there….but we’d lose his best asset,his arm.

He’s 2nd in the NL in OF assists and my guess is just his presence and reputation has prevented many runners from going 1st to 3rd and turning a single into a double….let alone trying to score from 2nd.

He’s like a great Catcher that runners don’t even try to run on.

Why put that in CF?

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 19, 2023, 3:36 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 18, 2023, 7:05 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2023, 6:00 pm

On the subject of defense ... recognizing that most defense stats are subject to a lot of question ... we should be celebrating Tatis' conversion to RF.

As it stands, Tatis is #1 in MLB in DRS with 21 (2nd is at 16) and that seems to be a favorite in these days in rating defense efforts. Also, for qualified RF he has the #1 dWAR (10.7) which is about double the next qualified RF.

Should be an easy Gold Glove RF in his first year out there.

Yet I keep seeing Padre fans who can’t wait to move him to CF.

He’d be fine there….but we’d lose his best asset,his arm.

He’s 2nd in the NL in OF assists and my guess is just his presence and reputation has prevented many runners from going 1st to 3rd and turning a single into a double….let alone trying to score from 2nd.

He’s like a great Catcher that runners don’t even try to run on.

Why put that in CF?

 

 

Yeh, I would really prefer to keep him in RF for all the reasons you said.

The wiggle comes from who they go with in CF going forward ... especially if they move off Grisham to upgrade the offense. RF may be "easier" to fill than adding a quality CF. As it stands, they are forced to stick with Grisham or roll the dice on converting Merrill to a CF (not out of the question given his skill set ... thinking Robin Yount, Craig Biggio in the day). I might go that route for the long term (especially if they do extend Kim and expect Soto to go via FA). Key will be can Merrill play CF?

In the short run (maybe 2024) Merrill's potential offense and versatility opens a lot of options to upgrade the line-up as a "regular" at multiple positions which in turn opens up choices on adding more offense with less concern on defensive slot.

Right now a Soto-Merrill-Tatis ... Machado - Kim - Bogaerts - Cronenwoth ... Campusano starting line-up sounds like a good core 8 creating the need to fill the bench / DH without the need for a "star" and spend the money on pitching upgrades.

Quote from fenn68 on August 19, 2023, 4:00 am

Listened to an interesting discussion on whether the Padres should take the club option on Wacha (2 years / $32MM) ... made me think of the analytical gap between focusing on the player and focusing on the team winning.

Basically ... given Wacha's injury history / age / past performance before 2022-3 ... analytics suggest that he is not worth the $16MM annual (risk). It then would be expected Wacha would turn down his player side (about $6MM) and depart via FA. The analyst was saying don't take the club option. All analytically good if just focusing on the player BUT

The Padres would be left with Musgrove and Darvish with Snell, Lugo (likely), and Wacha FA searching for 3 SP in a market with limited FA of quality and every team in the hunt pushing up the price ... not a good position to be in if you are the Padres and trying to win in 2024. Padres would have to over pay for one or more of those FA.

Here is a case ... if you want to win in 2024 ... forget the player analytics and take the added risk for that price tag and lock down that 3rd SP (and cost) before the winter begins which in turn allows the team to better strategize those other two SP slots.

For me, for the good of the team ... have to exercise the Club Option on Wacha.

Quote from BoosterSD on August 21, 2023, 8:56 am

So let me throw this into the mix. With the impression that Soto is not excited about being in SD, and a FA after the 2024 season. Then the situation in NYM land where there is rumor that NYM have not had extension talks with Alonso, could there be a match here?

The base of the trade would be Soto to NYM and Alonso to SD. There might need to be some other pieces to make money and positions work out, but I think it could work. MYN does have two corner INF pieces that are real close, and Soto might want to be in NY, so NYM can save "face" with the fans by saying how can we pass up on Soto.

LFers are fairly easy to find, and SD would save somewhere between $7-10 in the difference between Alonso and Soto both in their last season of arbitration.

Would need to find something to do with Crone, Kim, and Bogaerts since Alonso would displace Crone at 1B. But something could happen.

Quote from fenn68 on August 21, 2023, 10:33 am

Quote from BoosterSD on August 21, 2023, 8:56 am

So let me throw this into the mix. With the impression that Soto is not excited about being in SD, and a FA after the 2024 season. Then the situation in NYM land where there is rumor that NYM have not had extension talks with Alonso, could there be a match here?

The base of the trade would be Soto to NYM and Alonso to SD. There might need to be some other pieces to make money and positions work out, but I think it could work. MYN does have two corner INF pieces that are real close, and Soto might want to be in NY, so NYM can save "face" with the fans by saying how can we pass up on Soto.

LFers are fairly easy to find, and SD would save somewhere between $7-10 in the difference between Alonso and Soto both in their last season of arbitration.

Would need to find something to do with Crone, Kim, and Bogaerts since Alonso would displace Crone at 1B. But something could happen.

Three  points:

1. IF you believe (or even just get concerned by) the reports in NY ... Alonso is being painted as a problem in a toxic METS clubhouse and should be traded. Don't need to take that risk to get one year / high cost slumping 1B. Better off with Soto (and I am not a Soto fan).
2. IF (and I don't think they will) move Soto ... need to get either OF or SP help in return not a DH for 1 year. Without Soto the 2024 Padres would have a LF and CF pair of holes (big holes) that at best only Merrill could fill. Can't bet on adding anyone even on a large contract.
3. Alternatively, IF they move Soto it needs to be for long term / low cost control players freeing up money to spend on FA signings to build a roster ... optimally targeting SP.

Basically Soto in 2024 ... for me ... has more value than Alonso and his potential baggage. Actually in the minds of National Media ...Soto probably has a lot more value than Alsonso and should generate a better return.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 23, 2023, 3:43 am

Fernando Tatis had “two” outfield assists last night.

Just happens Cooper missed one of them resulting in an error for Tatis of all things.

But “this” is why you don’t move him to CF.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 23, 2023, 7:48 am

Just spinning data to try to figure out targets areas to improve this team for 2024. I take old school approach that scoring runs and preventing runs leads to wins.

Padres in 2023 are #1 in the NL (and #5 in ML) in allowing the FEWEST runs. Maybe that says a lot about how Niebla and Melvin are handling the pitching staff as well as the overall quality of the pitching staff. Maybe says something about the ball park. Are they perfect ... no .... but have to think being #1 suggests a lot is right compared to every other team. Have to worry about the departure of Snell (Cy Young candidate), Hader (Relief pitcher of the year candidate), and potentially Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez (who despite the notable blowups ... still has pitched a lot of inning with an ERA under 4 and that is better than a lot of middle RP in MLB).

Of course scoring runs helps and sadly the Padres are #8 in the NL (#15 in MLB) .... basically "average" with big money superstars ... Soto, Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts plus the well compensated Cronenworth. They are all ticketed to return. Basically the only regular going as a FA is Sanchez.

So, the elite pitching has their core leaving and the dud hitting has their core returning. That does not sound like a good formula for 2024.

Quote from BoosterSD on August 23, 2023, 7:59 am

While the pitching has been very good this year, I think you have to give some credit to the defense for that as well.

If you go around the field, do we not have a GG CFer, Tatis could/should earn the GG for RF, and Machado, Kim, and Crone (defense wise) should all be either #1 or 2 in GG consideration as well at 3B, 2B, and 1B.

That means defensively we are extremely strong in 6 of 8 everyday player positions. And while Bogaerts will not win the GG, he is not a below average fielding SS, just not the best SS in MLB, and really not even the best on the team!

The failure this season lies squarely on the offensive performance of the team. And there are two options for next season with regards to the offense. One, believe that 2023 is an anomaly, and that specifically Machado, Bogaerts, and Soto will return to the norm of the back of their baseball cards. Or two, somehow the chemistry is off, and there needs to be some change in personnel to fix that issue, be it Soto or someone else.

One is easy to fix, as all the batters are returning next season. Two is more difficult, since you would have to identify the person who is the issue, and figure out how to ship them out, and then who to replace them with.