Quote from MrPadre19 on August 18, 2023, 5:48 am

We need to be within 2-3 games of the final WC spot by Sept 14th.

At that point we have 12 of 15 games against teams that will have packed it in.

But,"before" that time,to get to within 2 games,we have to get through a gauntlet of SF,Phi,Hou.LaD

So will have to play great baseball the next 3 weeks to even have a chance when we reach the easier part.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2023, 6:36 am

I know the desire to “play to win” if there is still a mathematical chance … don’t disagree … but at some point that comes. Assuming that occurs with weeks remaining in the season, would the Padres consider releasing some FA to be (likely ones they plan on not trying to resign) and give those slots to some prospects who may be in the running for a 2024 slot?

I could see R.Hill and Garcia being let go early to give a 26 man roster slot to Morejon / Kerr and/or maybe Iriate who will have to be added to the 40 man anyway over the winter. Maybe Avila will get a chance for some starts to give the Padres a better perspective on how to address the #5-6 SP role in 2024.

Padres don’t have many prospects that may impact 2024 that HAVE to be added to the 40 man over the winter … so might not want to waste a slot over the winter just for a “look and see” and keep those slots available for FA signings.

For the less optimistic, an argument can be made to make those moves before mathematically eliminated but the probability is just so small as to be be unrealistic.

Quote from WindsorUK on August 18, 2023, 9:42 am

Like the idea of cutting dead weight( Hill, Garcia, Carpenter) in order to get some young guys a look.

Avila has looked really good so far. Like to see if he can give us a handful of quality starts from here on out. And at some point, Morejon is going to have to step up.

Wacha, Darvish, Snell, Avila, Morejon....rest of the season rotation.

Quote from WindsorUK on August 18, 2023, 9:52 am

I do not want to see Juan Soto in a Padre uniform next year! I'm with Fenn- never liked the trade. And Preller missed a huge opportunity to acquire some top prospects by holding onto him this past trade deadline. Hopefully some team will still offer at least 1 or 2 decent talents this off season for Soto's 2024 walk year.

I wonder which teams Bogaerts would be interested in? Not sure we'd get much in return and would have to cover a LARGE portion of that $270 million but that dude provides replacement level quality at the plate and in the field. His numbers are average at SS, they'd be appalling at 1B( as are Jake's, which is why I want to see him back at 2B). Maybe bring in a LH to platoon with him at DH? I've not checked DH numbers across MLB but imagine his numbers would be below replacement level? Just think how that money COULD have been spent?????

Really and truly need Preller to lose his job. No 90 win seasons in 9 years? Only 1 full season playoff run? How in the world has someone with so little acumen for what he does been able to keep his job?

Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2023, 2:46 pm

The has been some national types suggesting that the Padres are considering Merrill as a Sep call-up ... Preller this AM said that is not true. I would not do it but we are talking Preller.

True or not ... does elevate the idea of Merrill making the Padres to start 2024 (like Tatis did with a partial AA season). Clearly need a 9th hitter in the line-up and Merrill as DH and super utility to allow others to DH fits at a low cost. So, not something to write-off know Preller has no issue with getting prospect up quickly.

I will toss in another scenario ... most are not in love with Grisham's bat and he is getting into some larger ARB money (which should get boosted by his defensive numbers). In the past, the Padres have pitched Tatis as a future super star CF (his RF work has made that more realistic). Could for 2024 the Padres shift Tatis to CF ... start Merrill in RF ... relegate Grisham to the bench or trade him (not a big return but at least something and allow the Padres to re-deploy his money). Padres could then better focus on bench/DH options with more offense than Grisham.

Guessing that the Padres hold on Soto for a last hurrah in 2024 to justify the trade ... not a fan but a better chance to win in 2024 than whatever they would get in return. Did see a report that the Padres have been trying to get Soto to agree to an extension during the season with no traction (my guess a low ball offer compared to his and his agents goal they believe they can nail via FA). Nothing firm to base this on but still think ... beyond the money ... Soto would prefer to pay elsewhere on a team without other super-stars in Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts ... somewhere where he is "the guy".

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 18, 2023, 3:20 pm

I get that we’re all disappointed but I’m not sure I get the Soto hate.

He leads the team in HR’s and RBI and the world in Walks and is “24 years old”.

He’s 9th in MLB in OPS and 8th in MLB in offensive WAR.

I get that he’s too passive at the plate a lot of the time but again….he’s 24 and even with his passiveness is the best offensive player on the team this year.

His OPS+is 151 this year….Tatis 120.

Personally I’d like to keep him and see what he does once he reaches his prime…..which is still 3 years away or so.

Is it just his personality or his defensive limitations?

Maybe DH him more often?

I’m guessing when we just saw his stats the last few years and didn’t see him play every day maybe we expected even more?

Than a 151 OPS+?

I’m pretty sure only Freeman and Betts have a higher OPS+ in the NL West….and they aren’t still 24.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 18, 2023, 3:24 pm

I don’t want them to bring up Merrill unless he will play most every day no matter where they put him.

I don’t think they will unless/until we are definitely out of it.

While we may be reconciled to the fact we won’t make the playoffs no one on the field better be yet.

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2023, 3:58 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 18, 2023, 3:20 pm

I get that we’re all disappointed but I’m not sure I get the Soto hate.

He leads the team in HR’s and RBI and the world in Walks and is “24 years old”.

He’s 9th in MLB in OPS and 8th in MLB in offensive WAR.

I get that he’s too passive at the plate a lot of the time but again….he’s 24 and even with his passiveness is the best offensive player on the team this year.

His OPS+is 151 this year….Tatis 120.

Personally I’d like to keep him and see what he does once he reaches his prime…..which is still 3 years away or so.

Is it just his personality or his defensive limitations?

Maybe DH him more often?

I’m guessing when we just saw his stats the last few years and didn’t see him play every day maybe we expected even more?

Than a 151 OPS+?

I’m pretty sure only Freeman and Betts have a higher OPS+ in the NL West….and they aren’t still 24.

 

Not hate ... and I can live with his defense in LF. It is more a cost benefit opinion ... basically despite the over the top stats (OPS/WAR) his career performance in "late and close" and "high leverage" is not that impressive for $23MM (and probably $30MM+ in 2024). (side: not a fan his his antics while batting ... although tempered a bit lately ... but if he was clutch I would bite the bullet).

For his price tag expecting a player that consistently gets those big hits in the clutch and carries the club over long stretches. Not seeing that in Soto. Basically stats over substance.

Giving him ... even at 24 ... a 15 year deal for a minimum of $450MM when you have Machado, Tatis, and Bogaerts locked up for most of that timeframe seems to be looking for a problem down the road ... most see Soto as a DH sooner than later ... but an aging Machado and Bogaerts will need to use that role.

Maybe not a great analogy but a few years back recall the national types hyping Jason Hayward for a long term big money deal because he is young and only will get better ... before that similar route with Toronto and Vernon Wells and A. Rios.

So, cost / benefit and take the Soto money (after not resigning him after 2024) and deploy that over a couple of quality adds and build a more productive 26 man roster with a shorter commitment for flexibility as Machado / Bogaerts age and require the DH role.

Quote from Stergios on August 18, 2023, 4:38 pm

Interesting convo on Soto.  The one thing I’d like to add is that I think that his defence is underrated.  He’s had some poor outings, but I don’t think that he’s below average in LF.  I don’t think that a move to DH is imminent.  If we can establish an OF of Soto-Jr.-Merrill, as they continue to play together they’ll become one of the more dangerous OF’s in the game.