Forum
Forum Navigation
2023 Season
#851 · August 23, 2023, 10:54 am
Not sure the Padres have any choice but to focus on the SP adds (re-signs) … at some quality level since the guaranteed returnees Darvish (not having a great season and aging) and Musgrove is ending the season with shoulder a shoulder ailment. That should eat all the financial flexibility.
Not sure they can do any major overall with the offense (except maybe the deletion of Soto / $30MMish). Made the bet with big money contracts and need to play that out hoping the evaluations that got them to make those deals will materialize.
Padres have 7 players on long term contracts … not sure how many (if any) would be claimed on waivers (which moves their contract) if put out there. That suggests even the trade route is not likely (not counting the no trade clauses). Considering how these players have performed in 2023 who would take these contracts:
1. Machado: 10 years / $330MM to age 41 (2033)
2. Tatis: 11 years / $286MM to age 35 (2034)
3. Bogaerts: 10 years / $255MM to age 40 (2033)
4. Darvish: 5 years / $83MM to age 42 (2028)
5. Cronenworth: 7 years / $80MM to age 36 (2030)
6. Musgrove: 4 years / $80MM to age 34 (2027)
7. Suarez: 4 years / $36MM to age 36 (2027)
Other than Tatis who still looks like a good sign at a go forward AAV of $28.6MM not sure anyone would make the go forward commitments at those levels. Maybe Musgrove but his injury would put him on the bubble. Those are some long deals with big dollars into the players rocking chair years.
#852 · August 23, 2023, 11:12 am
Personally I'm fine with the "underperforming" offense returning.
I can't see any way we can go winless in xtra inning games again...or last in 1 run games...or bottom 10% in 2 run games...or this bad with RISP.
Not an excuse but MAN this has been a weird (frustrating) season.How many fly outs 4 feet short of a HR?....or robbed "over" the fence?
Secure the rotation and add 50 bullpen arms and let's roll!
#853 · August 23, 2023, 12:44 pm
At this point in the season, the following players are this far behind the career average OPS.
Tatis - .124 (.788 to .912)
Soto - .054 (.884 to .938) his big problem is BA down .23 points.
Machado - .056 (.773 to .829)
Bogaerts - .080 (.727 to .807)
Crone - .056 (.694 to .750)
That is 5 guys that are all getting good money and not performing, and/or have been wildly inconsistent this season.
#854 · August 24, 2023, 6:03 am
The “sticky substance” ejection of Suarez comes with a 10 game suspension AND he cannot be replaced on the 26 man roster.
Never good but entering a long stretch with no off days will not be good for the pen usage.
#855 · August 24, 2023, 11:45 am
Quote from fenn68 on August 24, 2023, 6:03 amThe “sticky substance” ejection of Suarez comes with a 10 game suspension AND he cannot be replaced on the 26 man roster.
Never good but entering a long stretch with no off days will not be good for the pen usage.
Gonna have to go to Blake and say "Yeah,were gonna need you to go 6...If you could do that,that'd be great."
#856 · August 24, 2023, 3:53 pm
RUMOR (second hand at that but supposedly from D.Lin):
- Padres are reportedly asking Bogaerts if he would be OK with a position change. Nothing specific as to which position but logically a reconfiguration of Kim (SS) - Cronenworth (2B) - Bogaerts (1B) would maintain the same offense (in theory) but improve the defense.
- Padres are considering calling up Merrill as ??? but likely a "super utility" guy for the rest of the season (maybe Sep 1 call-up). LHH DH? or move around the INF allowing the others to DH? Makes some sense to get his feet wet ... especially if the Padres are out of it ... to get him a month of ML ball before 2024 so the Padres can better assess his ML readiness and, in turn, adjust their winter plans.
I would think a read on Merrill's bat will have some impact on the future 2024 for Soto - Grisham - the DH TBD. Merrill seems versatile enough to adapt to LF ... maybe CF ... or hold the super utility/DH role if the bat looks ready and does not have to be that great to out hit Grisham and Carpenter who are ticketed to return.
Padres are "rushing" everyone this month ... but given Merrill's work in AA ... a one month test run seems not out of the question.
#857 · August 24, 2023, 4:00 pm
Companion thought on the DH going forward. Last season Machado has injury issues ... this year Machado has injury issues, Bogaerts had injury issues, Kim / Cronenworth are playing virtually every day ... seems as though having that DH slot to allow to keep those bats in the line-up over the course of a season while giving the time off their feet in the field seem supported by a strong INF utility piece to fill in (and DH) might make more sense over the course of a season than searching for a one dimensional DH/1B type.
Of course ... different if the DH was Ohtani!
#858 · August 24, 2023, 4:24 pm
Thinking to 2024 and the SP (coupled with managing the payroll to 2023 levels).
- IF the Padres can re-sign Snell (maybe $125MM/5 years?) and Sanchez who has become a key partner in Snell's success ($10MM/2 years) ... that is a plus $30MM AAV ... and if they move on from Soto as I would, that is a net push. Then by my estimate the Padres would be $20MM under 2023.
- Merrill comes up to replace Soto
- Padres try to sign Yamamoto ... FA RHSP out of Japan ... top hurler at only 25 ... mid-rotation type (maybe upside of a #2) for around $20MMish ... seems a better upside option than any of the older US FA on the market.
- Padres exercise the $32MM/2 year option on Wacha (already in my estimate) keeping them at the 2023 payroll level.
- Padres try to sign Lee, 25 year old GG OF out of Korea and big time hitter ... with the one major concern with FB velocity (see Kim) but a major contact hitter who uses the entire field. If they can, non-tender / trade Grisham / Nola to help fund him ... shouldn't be worse than Grisham.
Basically for the same payroll gets a starting staff of Snell, Musgrove, Darvish, Yamamoto, and Wacha ... that is good 1-5 and Soto-Grisham are replaced by Merrill-Lee (risk but upside). A 9th bat is still needed (either INF or OF to start as DH but rotate to the field if needed). For that need to push the payroll up a bit but still can stay comfortably under $290MM. RP just wing it with Suarez, Barlow, Wilson, and Cosgrove plus.
Of course if they sign Ohtani (likely only a DH in 2024 given the injury) ... might alter that plan.
#859 · August 24, 2023, 8:20 pm
By “move on” you obviously mean trade Soto before the start of the season.
Any thoughts on who would want him for $28 ish mil for one season and prospects ?