Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 2, 2023, 11:15 am

Bogaerts played a little 3B early in his career. He's always been a primary SS and hasn't played anywhere else since 2014. I think there's very little chance that they move him off SS the way he's playing right now.

Cronenworth has been disappointing offensively, but he's also not far off from where he was last year numbers wise. Outside of a big June last year this is kind of who he's been lately. I read something that said pitchers have been throwing him a lot more sliders and he's been struggling with them. It might just be that the league has adjusted to him and he needs to adjust back. He also hit significantly better in a small sample size at 1B last year. This year the same is true at 2B. I wouldn't read much into either result.

Quote from BoosterSD on June 2, 2023, 11:53 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 2, 2023, 11:15 am

Bogaerts played a little 3B early in his career. He's always been a primary SS and hasn't played anywhere else since 2014. I think there's very little chance that they move him off SS the way he's playing right now.

Cronenworth has been disappointing offensively, but he's also not far off from where he was last year numbers wise. Outside of a big June last year this is kind of who he's been lately. I read something that said pitchers have been throwing him a lot more sliders and he's been struggling with them. It might just be that the league has adjusted to him and he needs to adjust back. He also hit significantly better in a small sample size at 1B last year. This year the same is true at 2B. I wouldn't read much into either result.

I agree that they wont move Bogaerts, although I still think it would be best for the team if they did.

I did a quick look at Crone, yes his numbers outside of slugging (which was a lot better) were about 10%± better at 1B last season. So I quickly dove a little deeper, and it really seams that he starts slow, gets real hot in June, cools off again in July, warms up again in August, and tails off again in Sept/Oct historically. A guess would be that he goes through cycles of getting pull happy for power, and then regains his all fields approach, which pays off, and then probably gets pull happy again, causing another slump.

So your right he is what he is; Katy Perry, which is hot and cold! So you have to ride the waves of Crone when they happen.

Quote from fenn68 on June 2, 2023, 12:04 pm

Yes it does appear the league has figured him out and he has not adjusted. Actually in his four seasons with the Padres his OPS+ has dropped in each season from the previous season. So far in 2023 he is sitting at OPS+ 97 … not great for a traditional 1B but only slightly below league average. So, with his 1B defense he is still a positive WAR type and if we don’t focus on him being a 1B and just deal with him as part of the line-up … not the problem.

Have to admit I did not understand the new long term extension given his age and recent performance. IF he ends up back at 2B (post Kim) the $11MM annual is not inappropriate for his current level of performance. Also, he could be a decent trade chip for a team that needs a 2B and if he stabilized at a 1-2 WAR player.

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 2, 2023, 12:16 pm

Quote from fenn68 on June 2, 2023, 8:03 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 2, 2023, 7:39 am

Sanchez is off to a nice start. I'm going to need to see him do it for a lot longer before I crown him. He's struggled to hit .200 the last 3 years. I put a lot more weight in that than a 3 game start with us.

As for Bogaerts if the Fangraphs metrics are to be believed he's been the best defensive SS I'm baseball and the best non catcher overall. I think the defensive numbers tend to be a little more finicky and still thinks Kim is probably better, but Bogaerts has been very good. I wanted Kim at SS at the start of the year. Now I think Bogaerts is more than ok there.

One thing I have been wondering about is if we might see Odor in RF with Tatis in CF on occasion once Manny is back. I saw that Tatis was working in CF before the games in Miami. If Odor keeps hitting and Grisham doesn't maybe that's a way to get him in the lineup on occasion.

Good thought on Tatis to CF (which is where the Padres originally wanted to to go a year ago). If you need offense and Grisham is not going to deliver ... getting any combo in RF while still getting plus defense in CF with Tatis should be a plus. Odor while hot makes sense ... maybe more of Dixon in RF. That combo may add more than Grisham offensively while not hurting overall defense.

Also, in a bit longer view, if Tatis locks in as a plus CF ... at the trade deadline or next winter is should be easier to find a productive RF (at a reasonable cost) than a CF where quality is very very limited.

Not sure any of the AAA/AA candidates for RF will be all that productive in the ML but the bar is Grisham so maybe not too high ... and maybe just "different" is good. If there where ... could see Tatis in CF, Grisham as the 4th OF / CF back-up, Azocar optioned to AAA, and a stronger RF option added. Maybe they take a risk on a marginal prospect / player (e.g. Tucker or Iglesias INF back-up if Odor sits in RF).

While I am OK with moving Tatis to CF and playing Odor/Dixon in right I'm not sure I agree it won't hurt the overall defense.

Taking out a Gold Glove CF'r and adding a guy who's never played there before at any level and taking arguably the best athlete in MLB out of RF and putting Odor/Dixon HAS to make us worse defensively.

How much remains to be seen of course....and are we still better overall?

Best case Grisham just starts to hit and it's a moot point.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 2, 2023, 12:48 pm

I would say we should at least put Azocar in CF against Lefties but Grishams' numbers are much better against Lefties than Righties.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 2, 2023, 4:33 pm

I brought Grisham's splits up in another thread a while back. That's why I only brought up Odor in the Tatis to CF hypothetical. I would make it sort of a 3 way platoon with Tatis/Grisham in CF and Odor/Tatis in RF. As long as Grisham is hitting lefties he should be in there. If he falls off Tatis could take the everyday gig with Dixon or someone else getting into the RF mix.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 2, 2023, 10:34 pm

Odor hurt now.. this season has been so frustrating ...for Padres..Phillies and Cardinals ... But Padres are way more consistent at Pitching and Defense... the 3rd component The Offense is the one that hasn't hit on all cylinders and it needs to like NOW!..

Quote from fenn68 on June 3, 2023, 6:51 am

I have been watching baseball for a long long time and can’t ever recall such a collective simultaneous collapse of four All-Star level players who have years of consistent above average offensive production. Machado + Tatis + Bogaerts + Soto are not delivering the numbers that earned them mega contracts but even if one slumped the others should be picking up the slack … not happening.

The others (including Cronenworth) are less a surprise … although not a welcomed result … given they were not star level offense and had less established history.

For me the rest of the season boils down to the Big Four all getting back to their historical production for a sustained run … everything else is supportive. Maybe the Padres are not that far out of a Wild Card (pretty far out of the NL West) so can still make the playoffs unless the Big Four don’t make a turn-around. Tinkering around the fringes will not be enough.

What will be difficult is to know when to concede making the playoffs given “on paper” this team could get really hot and rip off a major winning streak … make the playoffs … and in the playoffs the hot team wins. That call will be magnified at the trade deadline with a full two months to go.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 3, 2023, 7:38 am

[spoiler title=""][/spoiler]Quote from fenn68 on June 3, 2023, 6:51 am

I have been watching baseball for a long long time and can’t ever recall such a collective simultaneous collapse of four All-Star level players who have years of consistent above average offensive production. Machado + Tatis + Bogaerts + Soto are not delivering the numbers that earned them mega contracts but even if one slumped the others should be picking up the slack … not happening.

The others (including Cronenworth) are less a surprise … although not a welcomed result … given they were not star level offense and had less established history.

For me the rest of the season boils down to the Big Four all getting back to their historical production for a sustained run … everything else is supportive. Maybe the Padres are not that far out of a Wild Card (pretty far out of the NL West) so can still make the playoffs unless the Big Four don’t make a turn-around. Tinkering around the fringes will not be enough.

What will be difficult is to know when to concede making the playoffs given “on paper” this team could get really hot and rip off a major winning streak … make the playoffs … and in the playoffs the hot team wins. That call will be magnified at the trade deadline with a full two months to go.

I think No One will concede anything in the National League as everyone is within striking distance.. I mean Padres not alone in really struggling atm..

St Louis/Phillies are on the same boat (maybe even worse off..as in their case is more than just offense).. Mets are hot cold hot cold .. too..

I dont know how to explain what I am seeing from SDP BUT

1- Adjusting to new rules (pitch clock mainly on the hitter side).. Manny in particular ..way off his game

2- WBC ..hurt us more than we think in various fronts

3- Nola BROKEN FACE in ST.. its obvious..maybe he was declining anyway (but his ST BEFORE the Face shot was terrific)

4- Injuries - Suarez /Joe/Manny (all season back/now hand)/now Odor .. the timing of them too..

5- I am actually pleased with Tatis current level of production and was projecting .750 ish OPS for him for the 1st half.. so he is not the problem.. Soto at .900 OPS in SD is about right with avg Soto career.. I always -.050 to .1 OPS for Petco x 81 OPS wise so .900 = .950 to 1.000 OPS elsewhere.. and when we trade for someone I usually expect - the same so Xander .815 career OPS ..= .750ish here.. only one not performing out of the 4 this entire season is Manny and his issues are basically all of the above combined.. also the lack of all 4 healthy and in the same lineup ..has only happened 18 times..19 if we count yesterday (but Manny is really on a rehab assigment at the MLB level if we want to be honest ..give it a week) we are 11-7 (11-8 counting last night in such games)

* I really think this is a good to great team ... I also think no matter what happens in 2023.. this same group (as is) with a few tweaks would be like 37-20 out of the gate..in 2024

I know Patience is a virtue but it seems we need a little bit of it..

With all this off my chest IF we going to play meaningful games in October we need to find a way right here in June and I mean right now.. 1-1 we need to finish 17-10 (June) so we got work to do