Quote from fenn68 on June 2, 2023, 5:46 am

A bit of a reason for optimism on the season. The lack of clutch offense has been a theme for the first two months along with a losing record … BUT … looking at run differential the Padres are 4th best in the NL with +8 behind only ATL, LAD, AZ. Suggests something good about the pitching (and maybe something about the rest of the NL).

Missing Tatis and Machado for parts of the first two months along with early slump by Soto and a late slump by Bogaerts and if they all come back into form … offense will be fine. So, with the Padres only being out of a Wild Card slot by 2.5 games and four months to go … very good chance of securing the playoffs then who knows.

Quote from fenn68 on June 2, 2023, 5:54 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on June 1, 2023, 10:13 pm

364

.364

.909

1.273

 

I think Gary Sanchez career with the Padres is going to be a long and prosperous one.. I can see a world in which he is the primary C/DH (37 HRs per 162 games career power bat) for 23-24 and then morr of a backup age 32-34 or so

IF the Padres can (or want) to resign him as a FA after the season … maybe more of a DH and a back-up catcher.

He is a poor defensive catcher and Melvin (and the pitching staff) prefer defense in a catcher. Heard another interview yesterday (Bowden) where he was tired of watching Sanchez with all the passed balls / wild pitches. I will bet Preller will be looking for a catcher who will be an upgrade defensively over Sanchez and offensively over Nola … unless that is Campusano.

Quote from BoosterSD on June 2, 2023, 7:08 am

With Machado possibly returning today, and keeping an eye on the game yesterday, I think SD needs to have a defensive realignment in the INF upon Manny's return. Kim and Crone is just the better situation at SS and 2B. Not sure what to do with Bogaerts though; its not that he been bad, but he is not Kim. My thoughts are this.

Machado 3B, Kim SS, and Crone at 2B, defensively I dont think any team in baseball can beat that alignment defensively. This should be this positions for the balance of the season, barring injury.

Can/would Bogaerts play 1B? If so, that is a perfect solution. His bat profiles more as a 1B than Crones does anyway.

Can we live with Sanchez behind the plate as long as he hits?

So with an ailing and aging Cruz, he goes on the DL as mentioned by Henry, Bogaerts goes DH, Dixon/Carpenter split 1B, and we live with Sanchez behind the dish, with Nola catching Darvish and Musgrove

Quote from fenn68 on June 2, 2023, 7:38 am

We may see a lot of Sanchez catching given no legit alternatives right now ... maybe not like his defensive work but in a plus/minus view the offensive plus may be outweighs the defensive minus.

Nola may get his playing time with Darvish/Musgrove and IF he has any semblance of offense returning he may return to a more regular status. We still need to see if Sanchez offers more than just power over the longer run ... recent years not much in BA/OBP. Not yet settled on Sanchez as being the team's solution at either C or DH.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 2, 2023, 7:39 am

Sanchez is off to a nice start. I'm going to need to see him do it for a lot longer before I crown him. He's struggled to hit .200 the last 3 years. I put a lot more weight in that than a 3 game start with us.

As for Bogaerts if the Fangraphs metrics are to be believed he's been the best defensive SS in baseball and the best non catcher overall. I think the defensive numbers tend to be a little more finicky and still thinks Kim is probably better, but Bogaerts has been very good. I wanted Kim at SS at the start of the year. Now I think Bogaerts is more than ok there.

One thing I have been wondering about is if we might see Odor in RF with Tatis in CF on occasion once Manny is back. I saw that Tatis was working in CF before the games in Miami. If Odor keeps hitting and Grisham doesn't maybe that's a way to get him in the lineup on occasion.

Quote from fenn68 on June 2, 2023, 7:51 am

Although I agree that Kim is the better SS (and he seems more comfortable at SS than 2B) than Bogaerts ... at this point in the season don't see a position shift. Expect that the Padres already knew that when the signed Bogaerts but clearly wanted the SS role (he was an All-Star there) so making a change now might actually hurt Bogaerts offense / psyche. Bogaerts is too good defensively to limit him to DH ... maybe 2B would have been better and maybe 1B rather than SS but think that ship has sailed for a couple of years ... maybe some shifts when Merrill arrives and Kim departs.

With this crew ... would not clog up the DH role with a single player (unless it is Ohtani) and rather use it to cover rest / minor injury to the regular position players.

As for Carpenter (think he is right behind Cruz as being done) and Dixon is preforming nicely but still don't think he is a long term solution in a regular role. So, in the short run the DH could (should) be a mix and match of Odor, Carpenter, Sanchez, Dixon with a regular in as needed. That would keep everyone engaged during the season and ready for the stretch run / playoffs.

Quote from fenn68 on June 2, 2023, 8:03 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 2, 2023, 7:39 am

Sanchez is off to a nice start. I'm going to need to see him do it for a lot longer before I crown him. He's struggled to hit .200 the last 3 years. I put a lot more weight in that than a 3 game start with us.

As for Bogaerts if the Fangraphs metrics are to be believed he's been the best defensive SS I'm baseball and the best non catcher overall. I think the defensive numbers tend to be a little more finicky and still thinks Kim is probably better, but Bogaerts has been very good. I wanted Kim at SS at the start of the year. Now I think Bogaerts is more than ok there.

One thing I have been wondering about is if we might see Odor in RF with Tatis in CF on occasion once Manny is back. I saw that Tatis was working in CF before the games in Miami. If Odor keeps hitting and Grisham doesn't maybe that's a way to get him in the lineup on occasion.

Good thought on Tatis to CF (which is where the Padres originally wanted to to go a year ago). If you need offense and Grisham is not going to deliver ... getting any combo in RF while still getting plus defense in CF with Tatis should be a plus. Odor while hot makes sense ... maybe more of Dixon in RF. That combo may add more than Grisham offensively while not hurting overall defense.

Also, in a bit longer view, if Tatis locks in as a plus CF ... at the trade deadline or next winter is should be easier to find a productive RF (at a reasonable cost) than a CF where quality is very very limited.

Not sure any of the AAA/AA candidates for RF will be all that productive in the ML but the bar is Grisham so maybe not too high ... and maybe just "different" is good. If there where ... could see Tatis in CF, Grisham as the 4th OF / CF back-up, Azocar optioned to AAA, and a stronger RF option added. Maybe they take a risk on a marginal prospect / player (e.g. Tucker or Iglesias INF back-up if Odor sits in RF).

Quote from BoosterSD on June 2, 2023, 9:20 am

While I can agree with Jeremy and Fenns point of view on Bogaerts, except for the All Star qualification at SS. Since that is nothing more than a popularity contest and Bogaerts was in BOS at that time.

I still think we are to the point of the season based on the poor start of the team, that we need to do whatever it takes to win. And I think that is putting Kim at SS and Crone at 2B. Of course its very small sample sizes, but they both seem to bat better when at those positions, and I think we all agree that the defense is better when they are there as well. Crone just does not seem to bat well when playing 1B, not sure if he is putting too much pressure on himself to be a "1B bat" when there (power) instead of just being himself at the plate.

So agreeing that the team maybe best served with Bogaerts at 1B. Still takes advantage of his defensive ability; which is still very good just not Kim, and keeps him involved in the game.

Yes, it might be time to move Tatis to CF, and go with what ever combo is hot in RF between Azocar, Odor, Dixon, and Grisham.

Quote from fenn68 on June 2, 2023, 9:49 am

Not really much choice than expecting the top 6 offensive performers to live up to expectations and carry the team (Tatis, Machado, Soto, Bogaerts, Kim, Cronenworth) but at some point "tinkering" still can be in the mix to upgrade the offense down the line-up ... when sort of depend on who is available and when (but clearly nearing the trade deadline is in play).

Considering the upgrades thresholds are quite low on three slots: C; DH; OF/CF ... even a small upgrade is beneficial overall. Consider year to date:

Catcher: 43 wRC+  (29th in MLB) ... 164/233/279 ... is clearly the biggest issue but also hardest to upgrade mid-season ... so more than likely Sanchez gets a good run and Campusano gets his shot when he returns

Center Field: 87 wRC+ (23rd in MLB) ... 185/306/343 ... CF is also a hard get but the Tatis to CF makes an upgrade in RF feasible ... should not be too difficult to improve on Grisham's slash line.

DH: 92 wRC+ (25th in MLB) ... 217/293/400 ... should be the easiest to upgrade at a low cost ... especially if going with a rental player.

Not likely upgrading all three but one or two of them with the expected improvements with the top 6 should take them over the top.

________________________

Padres should have the assets to make moves if they focus on rentals (and take some salary) ... again don't need to go star player just incremental improvement.

Took a look at some of the 40 man roster pitchers in the minors (pitchers always seem to appeal) and a number of them are in their last minor league option year ... so if the Padres don't see a window next year for some of them making the 26 man and think the will have to be DFA they may be easy trade chips that appeal. Think Knehr, Avila, Tapia, Groome, and even Castillo once off rehab and option this year.