Quote from JasonE135 on October 30, 2022, 11:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2022, 10:07 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on October 30, 2022, 9:26 am

Rule 5 players are usually grabbed by teams that are in rebuild mode and not teams in a contending window like the Padres. They also are players that their teams either don't really see helping anytime soon or are willing to lose.....to tie up a roster spot for a rule 5 player for the whole season at this point would be folly....a Rule 5 player is NOT going to put the Padres over the top.

Virtually no chance the Padres will select anyone in Rule 5 ... just a question of who they protect to avoid others taking them.

Since RP seem to be the coveted players selected in most years ... while at the same time the Padres may need to be better covered in RP ... good chance the players protected from Rule 5 may lean towards ML ready (or near ready) RP. The likes of Lugo, Cosgrove, Guerrero, and whomever the Padres see as real potential.

Other than Vega ... and he is a bit of a bubble type since he is not near ML ready ... not sure any SP will be protectied.

As for position players ... normally not the targets in Rule 5 (but some are taken and kept) ... Padres don't have much that need to be protected but given their real lack of position players on the 40 man (virtually no depth and a weak projected set for the 26 man) ... might sneek one or two in ... maybe if space is open (should be) and a secondary decision on DFA/non-tender moves if there a FA signings later or trades than net a plus 40 man player.

On Ornelas ... they probably like him but given his up and down performances ... may not fall into the "a lot" category. Since bats are not big Rule 5 targets they might not add him if they fill the roster with higher probability candidates and just risk him being selected AND KEPT.

I am actually kinda hoping, and I know this is blasphemy, that a couple of our injured RPs like Pom and Adams begin next year on the IL. Just for around a month. That would give the Padres a chance to see if any of their rule 5 eligible RPs are good enough to be kept.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 30, 2022, 2:13 pm

I dont know man one publication says one thing another says another ..Tatis $$ pro rated for suspension has been calculated 101 diggerent ways.. and we have 0 idea where Siedler $$$ to AJP allowance will be.. do we have $20? $40? Or $100mil?.. only AJP and Siedler know..

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 30, 2022, 2:52 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on October 30, 2022, 11:27 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 30, 2022, 4:06 am

Quote from JasonE135 on October 29, 2022, 8:05 pm

I think that you have to admit that the Astros got lucky with Valdez if he was ranked that low. If the Padres get lucky yes, one of those guys can have a year like that for us but no, none of them can be counted on.

Groome has been in the minors since 2017. He has had 6 seasons in the minors, has gained weight and hasn't broken out despite being a high 1st round pick. Counting on him to break out after 6 years of disappointment and the Padres getting him essentially for free does not bode well for his future. Knehr started pitching for us in 2021, Avila in 2019. Neither one has earned a regular starting spot in that time. Neither has earned more that spot start duty, and that despite the Padres having a MASSIVE NEED for starters late last year. The Padres chose Jake Arrieta over both of them last year. That kills any faith I have in them becoming quality starters in MLB. Weathers had promise a few years ago but pitched terribly for us in the minors this year. No, I don't have real faith in any of them and I don't think that the Padres do either. I hope one of them can surprise us but it would be just that, a surprise.

Well rookies in general can't be counted on...and i am not saying we need to count on any one of them..way I look at it ..we need to find 300 IP (roughly Sean + Clev) this offseason...if we sign a SP like Senga..that takes care of 160 or so of those.. Martinez(stays/resigns) gets 20 starts in 2023.. +10 × 5 inning (50 innings).. so we are left with 90 (+ Gores and others 100) so 190.. we need Groome and Co.. to give us that.

1. Yu

2. Snell

3. Musgrove

4. SENGA ?? FA?

5. Martinez

6. The Groome and Co. Bunch.. not relying on them to be anything more than Inning eaters combined or IF Groome (or other) emergece then great

* wouldn't mind a 2nd FA guy like Zach Davies or Eflin added for depth.. pushing perhaps Martinez to #6 and the young guns to the taxi squad.. But with payroll and all..probably going to ride with the kiddos to fill that role... I think Groome will surprise in 23....I mean we paid $39mil for him.. AJP must see something.. not like we needed to pay that $$ or get rid of Hosmer at all cause it wasn't a salary dump...Pads are still taking on all of the $$ cap money.. so like Shields for Tatis (another dude Preller $$$ paid for) AJP and staff (had before and does now) brought in a kid they've been after pre surgery..and obviously he sees something in him

 

The truth is that only the Padres coaches and management know what they truly think of the specs they have. If they sign 2-SPs they are showing at least a little confidence in Groome and company. If they sign 2-SPs AND re-sign Martinez I think that tells us something else. The Padres started with 6-SPs last year, probably because of the horrific way the rotation ended 2020. I remember what it did to our bullpen when Jake Arrieta went 1-3 innings and forced the BP to finish the game. We all know that there will be injuries and/or periods of  ineffectiveness among our starters. Some combination of Knehr, Avila, Groome and Weathers will end up pitching for us. I will hope that at least 1 or 2 can give us a consistent 5ip per start.

Did anyone read my post about the payroll? Am I wrong that the Padres have $48 million if Profar, Suarez and Martinez opt out and $28 million if they opt in? That is more than I thought.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/payroll/&ved=2ahUKEwjl7oGOyoj7AhWLj2oFHQT0D4AQFnoECA8QBQ&usg=AOvVaw0cts7DX3I0wC3sWFnD5hOY

I think you're wrong about it including the players with options. 207m is right around where I have it if everyone opts out.

Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2022, 4:22 pm

$207MM is about what I have for CBT purposes if all opt out … a bit less on a 2023 payroll basis with a lot of differences in AAV vs 2023 pay, big difference with Tatis.

For now going a combo pot of under threshold / over threshold of $40MM and wait for the Padres to tell me otherwise.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 30, 2022, 4:31 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 30, 2022, 2:52 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on October 30, 2022, 11:27 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 30, 2022, 4:06 am

Quote from JasonE135 on October 29, 2022, 8:05 pm

I think that you have to admit that the Astros got lucky with Valdez if he was ranked that low. If the Padres get lucky yes, one of those guys can have a year like that for us but no, none of them can be counted on.

Groome has been in the minors since 2017. He has had 6 seasons in the minors, has gained weight and hasn't broken out despite being a high 1st round pick. Counting on him to break out after 6 years of disappointment and the Padres getting him essentially for free does not bode well for his future. Knehr started pitching for us in 2021, Avila in 2019. Neither one has earned a regular starting spot in that time. Neither has earned more that spot start duty, and that despite the Padres having a MASSIVE NEED for starters late last year. The Padres chose Jake Arrieta over both of them last year. That kills any faith I have in them becoming quality starters in MLB. Weathers had promise a few years ago but pitched terribly for us in the minors this year. No, I don't have real faith in any of them and I don't think that the Padres do either. I hope one of them can surprise us but it would be just that, a surprise.

Well rookies in general can't be counted on...and i am not saying we need to count on any one of them..way I look at it ..we need to find 300 IP (roughly Sean + Clev) this offseason...if we sign a SP like Senga..that takes care of 160 or so of those.. Martinez(stays/resigns) gets 20 starts in 2023.. +10 × 5 inning (50 innings).. so we are left with 90 (+ Gores and others 100) so 190.. we need Groome and Co.. to give us that.

1. Yu

2. Snell

3. Musgrove

4. SENGA ?? FA?

5. Martinez

6. The Groome and Co. Bunch.. not relying on them to be anything more than Inning eaters combined or IF Groome (or other) emergece then great

* wouldn't mind a 2nd FA guy like Zach Davies or Eflin added for depth.. pushing perhaps Martinez to #6 and the young guns to the taxi squad.. But with payroll and all..probably going to ride with the kiddos to fill that role... I think Groome will surprise in 23....I mean we paid $39mil for him.. AJP must see something.. not like we needed to pay that $$ or get rid of Hosmer at all cause it wasn't a salary dump...Pads are still taking on all of the $$ cap money.. so like Shields for Tatis (another dude Preller $$$ paid for) AJP and staff (had before and does now) brought in a kid they've been after pre surgery..and obviously he sees something in him

 

The truth is that only the Padres coaches and management know what they truly think of the specs they have. If they sign 2-SPs they are showing at least a little confidence in Groome and company. If they sign 2-SPs AND re-sign Martinez I think that tells us something else. The Padres started with 6-SPs last year, probably because of the horrific way the rotation ended 2020. I remember what it did to our bullpen when Jake Arrieta went 1-3 innings and forced the BP to finish the game. We all know that there will be injuries and/or periods of  ineffectiveness among our starters. Some combination of Knehr, Avila, Groome and Weathers will end up pitching for us. I will hope that at least 1 or 2 can give us a consistent 5ip per start.

Did anyone read my post about the payroll? Am I wrong that the Padres have $48 million if Profar, Suarez and Martinez opt out and $28 million if they opt in? That is more than I thought.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/payroll/&ved=2ahUKEwjl7oGOyoj7AhWLj2oFHQT0D4AQFnoECA8QBQ&usg=AOvVaw0cts7DX3I0wC3sWFnD5hOY

I think you're wrong about it including the players with options. 207m is right around where I have it if everyone opts out.

Looks like all I had to do was wait 1 more day for MLBTR to answer my question for me. It seems that we have roughly $187 million on the books next year. That would make it $207 million if all 3 of Profar, Suarez and Martinez opt in. Looks like we have $26 to $46 million to spend this off-season, depending on opt-outs. That's better than I thought. We should be able to actually afford Senga and more. This pleases me greatly!

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/nl-west-notes-nimmo-rockies-padres-lawlar.html

Quote from 3fingersplit on October 30, 2022, 5:43 pm

You guys crack me up....it doesn't matter what the payroll is right now or later because if a player is available that AJP thinks will put the Padres over the top.....fill in the blank.....Mr Siedler can stroke a check and not blink an eye.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 30, 2022, 10:03 pm

K

Quote from Jeremy Hill on October 30, 2022, 11:58 pm

Someone's superiority complex is showing again.

Quote from fenn68 on October 31, 2022, 5:04 am

We will all have a better idea on the baseline amount for both 2023 payroll and the 2023 CBT payroll in about 2 weeks. Then we still don't know the spending strategy of Siedler.

The $187MM from Acee (MLBTR) looks to be the 2023 payroll for guaranteed contracts / arb decisions ... but not the same as the CBT payroll calculation. Believe that does include opt ins (which are guaranteed until the opt outs).

Probably should just shelve this circular discussion (since we clearly know little) and wait for the decisions on options to kick in a few days after the WS.