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2023 offseason
#401 · October 26, 2022, 8:16 am
Quote from 84padres on October 26, 2022, 6:46 amI vote Tatis for CF . It's the easiest OF spot to play and his bat there vs Grisham is the best improvement we could possibly make . If Tatis commits to it he could easily be the best CF in a year. The real Grish showed up again against Philly , 0 for 19 with 5 Ks . I just can't take another year of it . Yes his D is great but do any of you think Tatis couldn't do it ?
That is where I would want Tatis to end up … could be elite there for a decade or more. Tired of Grisham’s offense (lack there of) … and if you believe in Merrill as the future SS / 2B he should be here when Kim or Cronenworth move on.
The problem in 2023 is what that does to the other line-up slots … and is that really that much of an issue. Return of Tatis and a full year of Soto should be a major boost.
1. Machado (3B), Kim (SS), Cronenworth (2B), Nola / Alfaro (C) remains in tact
2. Soto (RF) for a full season will be greater than Myers, Mazara, and 2 months of struggling Soto … greater by a lot
3. Tatis for a full season will be greater than anyone in place for:
a. CF (Grisham)
b. LF (TBD / Profar opts out)
c. 1B (TBD) was Hosmer, Voit, Drury, Bell
d. DH (TBD) was Voit, Drury, Bell, and a cast of many
As good as Tatis is … probably covers only one position at a time. So, Preller does have to scramble for ML quality (not necessarily above average) for three slots since Tatis and Soto should provide a major boost just by being there for a full season with the returning components.
Since finding acceptable fills for 1B/DH/LF should be easier than finding a CF (better than Grisham) the first call is a referendum on Grisham and if found wanting (as I do) they put Tatis in CF … the best alternative around and best to maximize the use of his skill set. However, Tatis is going somewhere in the line-up … if Preller finds adding LF/1B/DH (3 adds) with all with more value than Grisham not feasible … he keeps Grisham in CF and put Tatis is LF and is still after two adds.
IF Profar opts in (unlikely) … there still is a need for two adds if Grisham is out and one if Grisham is in.
Preller probably needs to start the strategy by understanding who is available on the FA market (or by trade) and can the Padres realistically get them in a timely manner giving the option of pivoting as pieces drop off the availability list. Balance the priorities of offensive and pitching (especially if Martinez and Suarez opt out).
That is a lot of IF/THEN elements … so would not conclude any position of Tatis or the exit of Grisham until there is a clearer view of filling the other holes.
#402 · October 26, 2022, 8:36 am
My biggest question is Bell. Why did he have such a BA/SLG drop when he arrived in SD? Was it Petco park? Was it handling a playoff race for the 1st time? Did moving in season bother him more than he let on (same with Soto)? Was it bouncing between DH and 1B? Is he similar to Tatis and others, that they need the stimulation/break of not thinking about only batting of playing in the field? There has to be something for such a drastic drop off.
As long as it was not being able to handle the playoff race pressure or Petco, and Preller/Melvin think he rebounds closer to his WAS numbers, then I would resign him. He is a switch hitter with patience and power.
IF they think that Petco got in his head, or that he crumbled under playoff pressure, then he is of little use to us, and let him walk.
IF they think it was not playing in the field (first time in his career that he has ever really DHed), or moving midseason for the 1st time that threw (and Soto for that matter) then I can live with his defense at 1B, for his normal bat. Depending on the price of course.
#403 · October 26, 2022, 9:06 am
Quote from BoosterSD on October 26, 2022, 8:36 amMy biggest question is Bell. Why did he have such a BA/SLG drop when he arrived in SD? Was it Petco park? Was it handling a playoff race for the 1st time? Did moving in season bother him more than he let on (same with Soto)? Was it bouncing between DH and 1B? Is he similar to Tatis and others, that they need the stimulation/break of not thinking about only batting of playing in the field? There has to be something for such a drastic drop off.
As long as it was not being able to handle the playoff race pressure or Petco, and Preller/Melvin think he rebounds closer to his WAS numbers, then I would resign him. He is a switch hitter with patience and power.
IF they think that Petco got in his head, or that he crumbled under playoff pressure, then he is of little use to us, and let him walk.
IF they think it was not playing in the field (first time in his career that he has ever really DHed), or moving midseason for the 1st time that threw (and Soto for that matter) then I can live with his defense at 1B, for his normal bat. Depending on the price of course.
Washington Bell is not who he is...San Diego Bell is not who he is...
| .262 | .351 | .459 | .810 |
This is who he is... Take the Petco suppression ..lower that OPS to .775.. or so..a very solid player..But definetely not the .300 BA .. think SD would be .245/.345/.430 .775... or better than anyone not named Machado/Soto and Tatis... sort of 2020-21 Crone
Without the shift he may be .250ish in BA
#404 · October 26, 2022, 10:28 am
Again a deep dive is needed for the analytics team in evaluating Bell and Drury ... Soto is theirs.
All three performed poorer in SD than in the first four months with the predecessor teams. I could be just we are under-estimating the mid-season transition and the disruption on their lives.
To that end, my guess is they base the re-sign / let go on each players recent career production ... make some adjustments for age, PETCO being the home vs their style of hitting, and the end of the shift. They should be doing that for any FA that may be on their radar ... and in most (if not all) cases PETCO should also lower their stat lines. Probably unfair to any of them to expect them to repeat their pasts in PETCO ... but neither is the opposition ... so a bit of a push and just have to be better than the other guy.
Bell should be better at PETCO than most ... he has a more line-drive swing that will play anywhere while Drury is more a HR upper cut that played well in CINN (AZ before) but maybe ends up with more warning track power at PETCO.
I am beginning to convince myself that a re-sign of Bell makes sense at PETCO for his switch hitting and line-drive style ... then live with his poor defense at 1B as needed (not as though he would be blocking a major prospect). Might boil down to contract.
#405 · October 26, 2022, 10:47 am
With Bell's approach, his personality, and seemed to fit with the team chemistry, and the position that he plays along with being a SH, I am thinking that he is the one that try to resign. As long as his contract demands are not too insane. We have seen Preller work contracts out with Boras, and it makes sense for SD. Plus, Bell would keep himself in a nice baseball city, and it looks as if Seidler wants to keep money in the team and keep them competitive, and that is always enticing to a player. $20M a year is not worth it, if you are always on the outside looking in at the playoffs.
#406 · October 26, 2022, 11:05 am
Quote from fenn68 on October 26, 2022, 10:28 amAgain a deep dive is needed for the analytics team in evaluating Bell and Drury ... Soto is theirs.
All three performed poorer in SD than in the first four months with the predecessor teams. I could be just we are under-estimating the mid-season transition and the disruption on their lives.
To that end, my guess is they base the re-sign / let go on each players recent career production ... make some adjustments for age, PETCO being the home vs their style of hitting, and the end of the shift. They should be doing that for any FA that may be on their radar ... and in most (if not all) cases PETCO should also lower their stat lines. Probably unfair to any of them to expect them to repeat their pasts in PETCO ... but neither is the opposition ... so a bit of a push and just have to be better than the other guy.
Bell should be better at PETCO than most ... he has a more line-drive swing that will play anywhere while Drury is more a HR upper cut that played well in CINN (AZ before) but maybe ends up with more warning track power at PETCO.
I am beginning to convince myself that a re-sign of Bell makes sense at PETCO for his switch hitting and line-drive style ... then live with his poor defense at 1B as needed (not as though he would be blocking a major prospect). Might boil down to contract.
I can live with Bell at DH/1B platoon with Dixon not lefty_righty platoon but position pkatoon. I read an article a few yrs back about how being a DH "full time" is not as easy as it sounds as that player is only engaged for 3 or 4 times a game.. or something to that basis.. so playing 1B on a semi regular schedule and DHing the rest could keep Dixon and Bell grounded.. There is a reason why only a handful of DH's are highly productive and full time as DHs 90% + of the time
#407 · October 26, 2022, 11:10 am
If Pads see something in Dixon as a regular in 2023..or semi regular bat in the lineup..way I see it ..bringing in a $$ bat (or resigning one in that $10-$15mil per) is like bringing in 2 $5mil to $7.5 mil players as Dixon is minimum and at least a solid placeholder for a BIGGER bat at the Deadline that won't embarrass himself and who knows maybe even have a career type season
#408 · October 26, 2022, 11:16 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 26, 2022, 9:06 amQuote from BoosterSD on October 26, 2022, 8:36 amMy biggest question is Bell. Why did he have such a BA/SLG drop when he arrived in SD? Was it Petco park? Was it handling a playoff race for the 1st time? Did moving in season bother him more than he let on (same with Soto)? Was it bouncing between DH and 1B? Is he similar to Tatis and others, that they need the stimulation/break of not thinking about only batting of playing in the field? There has to be something for such a drastic drop off.
As long as it was not being able to handle the playoff race pressure or Petco, and Preller/Melvin think he rebounds closer to his WAS numbers, then I would resign him. He is a switch hitter with patience and power.
IF they think that Petco got in his head, or that he crumbled under playoff pressure, then he is of little use to us, and let him walk.
IF they think it was not playing in the field (first time in his career that he has ever really DHed), or moving midseason for the 1st time that threw (and Soto for that matter) then I can live with his defense at 1B, for his normal bat. Depending on the price of course.
Washington Bell is not who he is...San Diego Bell is not who he is...
.262 .351 .459 .810 This is who he is... Take the Petco suppression ..lower that OPS to .775.. or so..a very solid player..But definetely not the .300 BA .. think SD would be .245/.345/.430 .775... or better than anyone not named Machado/Soto and Tatis... sort of 2020-21 Crone
Without the shift he may be .250ish in BA
Damn! You putting up Bell's numbers got me to look up his Baseball Reference page and something struck me right away: his WAR. He has a grand total of 9.0 career WAR in a 6 1/4 seasons. I expected quite a bit more. According to WAR he should be a $10-$12 million per year player. If we can sign him for that much over 1-3 years I say go for it. If he is looking for $20 million per year and/or a long term contract I say run. The last thing we need is another Hosmer.
#409 · October 26, 2022, 11:27 am
Quote from JasonE135 on October 26, 2022, 11:16 am
Damn! You putting up Bell's numbers got me to look up his Baseball Reference page and something struck me right away: his WAR. He has a grand total of 9.0 career WAR in a 6 1/4 seasons. I expected quite a bit more. According to WAR he should be a $10-$12 million per year player. If we can sign him for that much over 1-3 years I say go for it. If he is looking for $20 million per year and/or a long term contract I say run. The last thing we need is another Hosmer.
3 of that WAR came this season, most in WAS I would wager. So for the balance of his career, he is a 1 WAR player.
#410 · October 26, 2022, 11:33 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 26, 2022, 11:05 am
I can live with Bell at DH/1B platoon with Dixon not lefty_righty platoon but position pkatoon. I read an article a few yrs back about how being a DH "full time" is not as easy as it sounds as that player is only engaged for 3 or 4 times a game.. or something to that basis.. so playing 1B on a semi regular schedule and DHing the rest could keep Dixon and Bell grounded.. There is a reason why only a handful of DH's are highly productive and full time as DHs 90% + of the time
If you go to baseball-reference web page and look, his numbers as a DH are horrible. I think if you resign Bell, you are basically telling yourself that he is your fulltime 1B. Maybe DH once a week to give him a rest, but the rest of the time, numbers wise, it appears that he needs to play the field. We really dont want anything to do with his DH numbers. Could be why his numbers were so bad in SD, he doesnt like to DH.
I think you are way to enamored with Dixon, and his fluffy numbers as a 30 year old in AAA, especially playing home games in El Paso.