Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 25, 2022, 11:11 am

One thought on Bell... BORAS is his agent and he never (or should say 99.9% of the time) signs early anything it's always wait til last second with him..soooooo not ideal for us

Quote from fenn68 on October 25, 2022, 11:13 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 25, 2022, 10:52 am

I am   convinced Alfaro will be non tendered $3.6 mil proj is waaay too much for a guy that didn't see playing time in postseason... He could still be resigned 1yr $1mil minor league or something with a ST invite.. Really not a bad insurance bat at AAA if he can't find employment elsewhere..

I agree that a non-tender is likely ... but think he latches on with another team (many need ML level back-ups) on a ML deal.

Sort of depends on the Padres need for a 40 man slot but not out of the question they sign Alfaro before going to arbitration at a lesser amount (he might go for it given his second half). Padres then have the option to trade him if anyone wants him in a deal or make a call in ST ... if they don't add a catcher or Campusano is dealt he stays but if it goes the other way they waive him in ST and only pay something like 25% of the deal. Basically an insurance play. Still think Campusano is a decent trade chip and need to keep him in play for a move.

With all the other potential player movements ... setting up the catcher to be Nola / Campusano is a big risk and would add seeking another catcher on to Preller's plate for adds.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 25, 2022, 11:14 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 25, 2022, 11:01 am

I would bet that the Padres have locked in Tatis to the OF for 2023.

Melvin likes defense ... Kim and Cronenworth represent top defensive middle INF that got them into the playoffs. Tatis has the most athletic ability to cover an OF slot with decent defense ... and that is a real need.

All three will be in the line-up ... so going with the best defense makes sense which leads the only question being Tatis in LF or CF.

If thats the case .. LF..with Grish in CF and Soto RF..make Profar opt out a forgone bye bye conclusion at that new price.. Profar bat is not good enough for DH and $10+ to sit in Bench not good

 

He'll end up in a team like Detroit or Cincy and regret the extra $$..Pittsburgh might be a fun place for him though with Cruz and Hayes

Quote from fenn68 on October 25, 2022, 11:25 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 25, 2022, 11:11 am

One thought on Bell... BORAS is his agent and he never (or should say 99.9% of the time) signs early anything it's always wait til last second with him..soooooo not ideal for us

Yes but a bit depends on who else is a Boras client and where he want to focus the competitive bidding. He really know how to play the market and will know quickly the potential bidders for Bell and the relative limits.

If a strong competitive offer is on the table ... is getting Bell off the board early good for both Bell and his other clients. Or maybe the opposite if the other options are the prime targets for other teams and as teams figure out they cannot sign them ... they fall back to Bell at a better deal for Bell.

This challenge is that Bell is basically a DH and the fall back other teams may need may not be a DH type for that money. I would expect Bell will up front set some parameters with Boras since from what I can tell, Bell has his head screwed on right and will not be totally lead around in this FA.

So, if Bell is a priority for Preller and he leads with an aggressive first offer, I could see a deal getting done before the winter meetings ... enough time for Boras to field any other offers. He should know that if he game plays ... Preller will move to alternate strategies.

Quote from fenn68 on October 25, 2022, 11:53 am

MLBTR just dropped its list of top FA DH ... could be some Padre gambles here. Of course the money demand and alternatives may get in the way but something to keep watching. Three could be interesting gambles:

1. Nelson Cruz (42) coming off a very poor season and can't really tell whether age has got him or was it his eye inflammation that resulted in off season surgery. Great clubhouse guy for the Latin players ... believe a Preller favorite. Not going to get many (if any) bids and certainly not for big money. If he gets back to his 2021 ... could be a big plus.
2. Matt Carpenter (37) LHH who looked to be fading fast then hit a major resurgence (before injury) with the NYY after being picked up off the scrap heap. Does he have a last hurrah in him ... should not command much as a FA.
3. Brantley (36) ... he we are talking a real professional LHH who had shoulder surgery to end the season and looks to be more DH that LF going forward. He likely would cost the most ... so a long shot.

Sort of looking for that last piece to complete the line-up at a lower price point and with some veteran experience and some offensive potential.

Sign Bell and Cruz with Tatis returning ... could be a compelling offense.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 25, 2022, 12:50 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 25, 2022, 11:13 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 25, 2022, 10:52 am

I am   convinced Alfaro will be non tendered $3.6 mil proj is waaay too much for a guy that didn't see playing time in postseason... He could still be resigned 1yr $1mil minor league or something with a ST invite.. Really not a bad insurance bat at AAA if he can't find employment elsewhere..

I agree that a non-tender is likely ... but think he latches on with another team (many need ML level back-ups) on a ML deal.

Sort of depends on the Padres need for a 40 man slot but not out of the question they sign Alfaro before going to arbitration at a lesser amount (he might go for it given his second half). Padres then have the option to trade him if anyone wants him in a deal or make a call in ST ... if they don't add a catcher or Campusano is dealt he stays but if it goes the other way they waive him in ST and only pay something like 25% of the deal. Basically an insurance play. Still think Campusano is a decent trade chip and need to keep him in play for a move.

With all the other potential player movements ... setting up the catcher to be Nola / Campusano is a big risk and would add seeking another catcher on to Preller's plate for adds.

 

Danny Jansen (Jays) could be available with Kirk and the top spec ready . His projected arb $$ would be pit to better use in their BP

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 25, 2022, 1:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 25, 2022, 11:53 am

MLBTR just dropped its list of top FA DH ... could be some Padre gambles here. Of course the money demand and alternatives may get in the way but something to keep watching. Three could be interesting gambles:

1. Nelson Cruz (42) coming off a very poor season and can't really tell whether age has got him or was it his eye inflammation that resulted in off season surgery. Great clubhouse guy for the Latin players ... believe a Preller favorite. Not going to get many (if any) bids and certainly not for big money. If he gets back to his 2021 ... could be a big plus.
2. Matt Carpenter (37) LHH who looked to be fading fast then hit a major resurgence (before injury) with the NYY after being picked up off the scrap heap. Does he have a last hurrah in him ... should not command much as a FA.
3. Brantley (36) ... he we are talking a real professional LHH who had shoulder surgery to end the season and looks to be more DH that LF going forward. He likely would cost the most ... so a long shot.

Sort of looking for that last piece to complete the line-up at a lower price point and with some veteran experience and some offensive potential.

Sign Bell and Cruz with Tatis returning ... could be a compelling offense.

Don't forget non tender possibilities Voit and Franmil..

Also David Peralta/JD Martinez(BAD season)/Joc

I think our DH slot ended the season in the .700 OPS range if not lower for 2022.. so anything greater than that would be a big +.. I for one think we need .750 OPS + from that spot even with the trio of Soto /Manny and Tatis..

Quote from JasonE135 on October 25, 2022, 1:46 pm

I think we need to remember that our Padres got all the way to the NLCS this year without getting a single inning out of their best player. Besides that both Soto and Grish had the worst years of their career. I don't think we need major lineup upgrades.

The Padres and Melvin are big fans of defense. That will be even more important next year with the new rules. I can't see the Padres returning Tatis to SS with his serious injury history and bad defense. He also doesn't deserve it with his behavior this year. The Padres already have a GG-CF and possible GG quality SS and 2B with Grish, Kim and Crone. I don't see them changing that setup that worked so well for us this year. I still think that Tatis will be better in RF than LF due to his superior speed and cannon arm, but the Padres may just want to leave things be.

LF- Tatis or Soto

CF- Grish

RF- Tatis or Soto

1B- ?

2B- Crone

SS- Kim

3B- Machado

C- Nola

DH- ?

If we can keep Profar I can see him rotating through LF with Tatis and Soto, Tatis and Soto rotating with each other in RF and all 3 through DH. That leaves our only opening at 1B, and it doesn't need to be a major bat.

 

As far as our BP, yes I would love to get both Suarez and Martinez back, but who knows? Let's not forget that we still have Pomeranz, who has been an excellent RP for us, coming back after not pitching an inning this year. We also still have guys like Baez, Knehr, Kerr, Kopps, Lugo and possibly even Wolf to fill out the BP. If only 1 or 2 of those guys step up...our BP is set! Our BP is really the only place where we still have numerous quality options in our minor leagues.

As far as I am concerned our only holes are at 1B, 4th and 5th starters.

If the Padres can sign either Bell or Drury along with Senga and just a passable 5 starter we will be in great shape.

 

 

 

Quote from WindsorUK on October 25, 2022, 3:30 pm

Glad to see Mr. P bringing up Tatis to 1B( thanks for joining me- it was getting lonely out here in the wilderness!). I just can't believe he's the only other poster to see this makes a lot of sense.

1) EVERYONE here seems to think Kim is the second coming of The Wizard and it's blasphemous to even consider moving off the spot, and 2) EVERYONE here( including me!) realises we need a 1B. So, just from all of your comments, FTJ is the IDEAL guy for 1B!

He has RIDICULOUS range, he's 6'3", he can do the splits, he has top end speed, he has GREAT baseball( unfortunately not life!) instincts, he's the most disruptive baserunner in SD since Rickey Henderson, and he just happens to have a ton of power.

If the Padres can make Phil Nevin and Wil Myers 1B, they can sure as hell make FTJ one.

And for everyone suggesting an OF of Tatis, Grisham, and Soto.....you also keep mentioning Melvin prefers defense.....this configuration would be a disaster! WE all saw FTJ play OF last year- total unmitigated disaster! And Soto? As a RF, he'd make a great DH! Grisham would be run ragged by the break.

Leave everything as it is, add FTJ to 1B, sign Drury/Bell for DH, concentrate on SP......done!