Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2023, 6:01 pm

Saw on MLBTR that the Padres are “INTERESTED” in Wacha and Hamel. (Love that word which does not suggest how interested).

At this point, interest in Wacha has to be under some creative contract with a low base … incentives … options for 2024.  Clearly the word is no team should rely in his 2022 performance and look back to previous season given his peripheral analytics are suspect.

Hamels has to be a minor league deal with a ST invite also laden with incentives and options.

The interest must stem from the desire to start the season with a 6 man rotation and are not confident in any of the pitchers after the top three (maybe 4 with Martinez) holding SP roles.

Just sign one who makes the 26 man roster … would really through the rest of the pitchers into turmoil … optioned or DFA (a lot without options) or the trade specter appears.

Easily could see minor trades surrounding the RP but … this is really off the wall … how about moving Snell (last year of his deal making a large salary) for a catcher upgrade? More likely a rotation of Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Martinez, Lugo, Wacha/Hamels fighting it out to see who survives when the drop to a 5 man rotation mid-season. That puts Morejon, Groome, Avila, Knehr likley back in AAA given the plethora of other RP in the mix.

Maybe such a move sets up a Pomeranz trade with Morejon become a LHRP option … that too would clear payroll on a one and done Pomeranz.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 13, 2023, 6:05 pm

So putting 1 and 1 together and coming up with 4 this evening. Read an article on padres website saying that SD is interested in a possible 6 man rotation, and they could still acquire another starter. And then a blurb on MLBTR, saying that SD has recently touched base with FA SP Wacha. They also mention Hamels in the same blurb.

I thinking that maybe both will be in camp by the end of the week. Wacha on a ML deal, and takes Rosario's spot on the 40 man. Hamels, on a MiL deal with an invite to ST.

Wacha becomes #4, with Martinez and Lugo at 5 and 6. Then when Lugo figures out he is not a SP, then Tehran gets called up, and takes Lugo's spot in the rotation.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 13, 2023, 6:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2023, 6:01 pm

Saw on MLBTR that the Padres are “INTERESTED” in Wacha and Hamel. (Love that word which does not suggest how interested).

At this point, interest in Wacha has to be under some creative contract with a low base … incentives … options for 2024.  Clearly the word is no team should rely in his 2022 performance and look back to previous season given his peripheral analytics are suspect.

Hamels has to be a minor league deal with a ST invite also laden with incentives and options.

The interest must stem from the desire to start the season with a 6 man rotation and are not confident in any of the pitchers after the top three (maybe 4 with Martinez) holding SP roles.

Just sign one who makes the 26 man roster … would really through the rest of the pitchers into turmoil … optioned or DFA (a lot without options) or the trade specter appears.

Easily could see minor trades surrounding the RP but … this is really off the wall … how about moving Snell (last year of his deal making a large salary) for a catcher upgrade? More likely a rotation of Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Martinez, Lugo, Wacha/Hamels fighting it out to see who survives when the drop to a 5 man rotation mid-season. That puts Morejon, Groome, Avila, Knehr likley back in AAA given the plethora of other RP in the mix.

Maybe such a move sets up a Pomeranz trade with Morejon become a LHRP option … that too would clear payroll on a one and done Pomeranz.

Can follow the idea behind a move of Snell, especially for a C upgrade. Two downfalls with that thought though.

One, Snell when healthy and right, might have the best stuff on the SD starting staff.

Two, he is really the only LHSP that we can count on so far. Not sure that Morejon has the innings in his arm for this season, and Groome and Weathers can not be trusted as of yet.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 13, 2023, 7:46 pm

What C is available for a talent like Snell?

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2023, 8:35 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on February 13, 2023, 6:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2023, 6:01 pm

Saw on MLBTR that the Padres are “INTERESTED” in Wacha and Hamel. (Love that word which does not suggest how interested).

At this point, interest in Wacha has to be under some creative contract with a low base … incentives … options for 2024.  Clearly the word is no team should rely in his 2022 performance and look back to previous season given his peripheral analytics are suspect.

Hamels has to be a minor league deal with a ST invite also laden with incentives and options.

The interest must stem from the desire to start the season with a 6 man rotation and are not confident in any of the pitchers after the top three (maybe 4 with Martinez) holding SP roles.

Just sign one who makes the 26 man roster … would really through the rest of the pitchers into turmoil … optioned or DFA (a lot without options) or the trade specter appears.

Easily could see minor trades surrounding the RP but … this is really off the wall … how about moving Snell (last year of his deal making a large salary) for a catcher upgrade? More likely a rotation of Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Martinez, Lugo, Wacha/Hamels fighting it out to see who survives when the drop to a 5 man rotation mid-season. That puts Morejon, Groome, Avila, Knehr likley back in AAA given the plethora of other RP in the mix.

Maybe such a move sets up a Pomeranz trade with Morejon become a LHRP option … that too would clear payroll on a one and done Pomeranz.

Can follow the idea behind a move of Snell, especially for a C upgrade. Two downfalls with that thought though.

One, Snell when healthy and right, might have the best stuff on the SD starting staff.

Two, he is really the only LHSP that we can count on so far. Not sure that Morejon has the innings in his arm for this season, and Groome and Weathers can not be trusted as of yet.

Very very very unlikely BUT the “when healthy and right” is a key point … and we don’t know what the Padres think about Snell’s future (or commitment). Add that to the uncertainty surround Nola/Campusano and what they project on potential Snell replacements.

Having said that … can’t really see a catcher available as an upgrade (does not have to be a one for one deal in a return for Snell).

Now if we shift the focus to Pomeranz … for a prospect … might make some sense.

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2023, 8:50 pm

I guess Wacha would (should) initially be the #4 given most projections (and his history) would suggest a 4.00+ ERA but not a long history of major innings. Martinez drops to #5 and Lugo to #6.

If they also signed Hamels to a minor league deal … likely has player opt out at the end of ST (maybe May 1) if not added to the active roster so he can catch on to another team on a ML deal if he shows well in ST. (Side: don’t know if Teheran has a similar opt out deal).

Plus if they sign Wacha as a FA … and Martinez and Lugo were signed as FA … those three are probably pretty locked into the active roster given the money commitment along with as FA the can’t be traded until after Jun 15 and very unlikely to be released the Padres eating the contract.

Would be an interesting ripple effect through the RP.

Quote from Randy Manese on February 13, 2023, 9:51 pm

I'm not a big fan of signing Wacha, especially if it puts the Padres over the 2nd tier AAV and has a possible adverse impact on the rest of the pitching staff.  Clearly, his 2022 season was an outlier from the previous 3 years and overall 5 of the last 7.  His success last year seems to be based on a very unsustainable BABIP of .260, which means he was incredibly lucky on batted balls, an unexpected uptick in his GB% and a very good strand rate by pitchers who followed him to the mound.  On the reverse side, in the second half his velocity dropped 0.5, down to 92.7, his HR rate increased dramatically and his ERA went from 2.69 to 4.11.  Moreover, his average pitch count per start was in the mid 80 to high 80's, which is "bad" Snell numbers per game, which was his best in the past 4 years; this is not really an innings eater kind of pitcher.  Given his history, don't know if he'd be any more successful than others we already have in camp, on or off the 40-man.

There should be plenty of time to go after another SP once the season starts that is as good as or better than Wacha and likely doesn't impact the AAV as much as Wacha could.  I'm for letting the season play out for awhile after which some teams will have a very good idea of what there chances are to be relevant in 2023.  Our offense should carry us in most of the games, especially after getting Tatis back.  Let's wait for a better deal.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2023, 10:35 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on February 13, 2023, 9:51 pm

I'm not a big fan of signing Wacha, especially if it puts the Padres over the 2nd tier AAV and has a possible adverse impact on the rest of the pitching staff.  Clearly, his 2022 season was an outlier from the previous 3 years and overall 5 of the last 7.  His success last year seems to be based on a very unsustainable BABIP of .260, which means he was incredibly lucky on batted balls, an unexpected uptick in his GB% and a very good strand rate by pitchers who followed him to the mound.  On the reverse side, in the second half his velocity dropped 0.5, down to 92.7, his HR rate increased dramatically and his ERA went from 2.69 to 4.11.  Moreover, his average pitch count per start was in the mid 80 to high 80's, which is "bad" Snell numbers per game, which was his best in the past 4 years; this is not really an innings eater kind of pitcher.  Given his history, don't know if he'd be any more successful than others we already have in camp, on or off the 40-man.

There should be plenty of time to go after another SP once the season starts that is as good as or better than Wacha and likely doesn't impact the AAV as much as Wacha could.  I'm for letting the season play out for awhile after which some teams will have a very good idea of what there chances are to be relevant in 2023.  Our offense should carry us in most of the games, especially after getting Tatis back.  Let's wait for a better deal.

 

 

Agree, just does not have much upside for what should be the price … probably Preller just doing his “due diligence” in case of some critical injuries during ST or just flat out bad performance by some of the other candidates.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 14, 2023, 7:05 am

Michael Wacha in agreement to sign with Padres.